With a 21 to 17 lead midway through the 4th quarter, the NY Jets drove to the Kansas City 8 yard line. A virtually certain field goal would have given them a full touchdown lead and guaranteed New York at least one more full possession. This situation gave the Jets about an 85% chance of victory. But on 3rd and 2, Brett Favre was intercepted for the 3rd time in the game, this time by Chiefs CB Brandon Flowers who returned the ball 91 yards for a touchdown and a 3 point lead. Following the extra point, the Chiefs had an 80% chance of winning, for an amazing swing of 65%.But the Jets got the last laugh. Their final drive culminated in a 15-yard TD pass to Laveranues Coles to take back the lead for good. The Chiefs had 1:00 to respond. With good field position following the kickoff, Kansas City made it to the Jets' 31 yard line with a 32% chance of pulling out the victory, before stalling on 4th and 1.
Congratulations, Brandon Flowers. Enjoy your free lifetime subscription to Advanced NFL Stats Premium.
Runner-up this week goes to the Dallas defense that stopped Tampa's final drive in the closing seconds to seal their 13-9 win.
The comeback of the week, however, is owned by the Panthers, who faced a 17-3 deficit against the Cardinals. With ten minutes left in the 3rd quarter, Carolina only had a 5% chance of winning before mounting their comeback. This was about 3 times more improbable than the Jets' amazing win.
One note, the TB WP in the closing seconds was not .50 as it appears in their chart. I have some unfinished data smoothing to do for one last situation--inside the opponent's 30 while behind. The data there is real, but it's very raw and erratic, especially at the end of the game.
ReplyDeleteJust eyeballing it, TB probably had about a .35 WP or so, which would simply be their chance of scoring a TD in that situation.
Hate to be a nitpicker, but you marked the KC 91 yard INT for TD as "KC 24 GB 21". I wonder, how did you get a Favre INT for TD mixed up with a Green Bay game?
ReplyDeleteLove the site.
Ha! I should just call them the "Favres." Or maybe the "Bretts," like all the announcers and commentators do now.
ReplyDeleteI think it is interesting that in the KC-NY game, the Chiefs get one last spike in win probability when they stop the Jet's drive after the Flowers' TD. Then they run three straight times into the line leading up to the punt labeled on the graph. Over the course of these three plays, their win probability drops 25%.
ReplyDeleteYeah. One or 2 more first downs might have won the game. The Jets still had all 3 time outs remaining, so it's hard to say.
ReplyDeleteWith the score that close at the end of the game, possession alone is critical.
Would it be that hard to attribute credit to my earlier post? Just sayin'
ReplyDelete