Playoff Probabilities Week 10

Courtesy of Chris at NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff probabilities for each team. The tables below include results from the Thursday night Jets-Patriots game.

These playoff probabilities are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has (wisely?) used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.

But if you don't like my numbers you can easily change them. Or you can play what-if scenarios. What if the Cowboys beat the Redskins this weekend? How would that change their chances for the playoffs? In fact, to account for last night's game, I simply slid the slider to 100% for the Jets to give them the win. Pretty cool.

Last year, I linked to the NFL-Forecast page each week, but this year Chris has agreed to allow me to duplicate his tables here. Don't forget to try out his NFL forecast software.

There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed.

AFC EAST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Miami	48	33	14	5
NY Jets	40	36	18	6
Buffalo	9	19	34	39
New England	4	13	34	50
AFC NORTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	82	18	0	0
Baltimore	18	82	0	0
Cleveland	0	0	93	7
Cincinnati	0	0	7	93
AFC SOUTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Tennessee	99	1	0	0
Indianapolis	1	87	11	1
Jacksonville	0	10	65	25
Houston	0	2	25	73
AFC WEST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	68	31	1	0
Denver	32	66	2	0
Oakland	0	3	74	23
Kansas City	0	0	23	77
NFC EAST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	59	30	10	1
Washington	34	45	18	3
Philadelphia	6	22	54	18
Dallas	0	4	18	78
NFC NORTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Chicago	76	16	8	0
Minnesota	14	52	34	0
Green Bay	10	32	58	0
Detroit	0	0	0	100
NFC SOUTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Carolina	52	29	16	3
Atlanta	26	34	31	9
Tampa Bay	20	30	35	14
New Orleans	2	7	18	73
NFC WEST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Arizona	99	0	0	0
Seattle	1	41	43	16
San Francisco	0	44	38	19
St Louis	0	16	19	65

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Tennessee	90	7	2	0	1	0	100
Pittsburgh	6	40	26	11	4	4	90
NY Jets	2	14	19	5	13	16	68
Miami	1	22	24	2	12	15	76
Baltimore	0	7	7	3	13	18	48
Indianapolis	1	0	0	0	42	19	63
San Diego	0	4	14	51	1	2	72
Buffalo	0	4	4	0	8	13	30
New England	0	2	1	1	4	8	15
Denver	0	1	3	27	1	2	34
Jacksonville	0	0	0	0	1	2	2
Cleveland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Oakland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kansas City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Houston	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Cincinnati	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Arizona	6	13	37	43	0	0	100
NY Giants	38	15	5	1	21	10	90
Washington	22	9	2	0	35	13	82
Chicago	2	6	31	37	0	1	77
Carolina	20	25	6	1	12	13	76
Atlanta	5	14	6	1	8	16	50
Tampa Bay	4	11	4	1	8	17	45
Philadelphia	2	3	1	0	14	21	41
Minnesota	1	1	5	7	1	3	18
Green Bay	0	0	2	8	0	0	10
Dallas	0	0	0	0	2	4	7
New Orleans	0	1	1	0	0	3	5
Seattle	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
San Francisco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
St Louis	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Detroit	0	0	0	0	0	0	0