Playoff Probabilities Week 13

Courtesy of Chris at NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff probabilities for each team.

These are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.

There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed.

AFC EAST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Jets	54	27	17	2
Miami	37	32	28	3
New England	9	38	47	7
Buffalo	0	3	9	88
AFC NORTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	89	11	0	0
Baltimore	11	89	0	0
Cleveland	0	0	97	3
Cincinnati	0	0	3	97
AFC SOUTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Tennessee	100	0	0	0
Indianapolis	0	100	0	0
Houston	0	0	79	21
Jacksonville	0	0	21	79
AFC WEST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	87	13	0	0
San Diego	13	86	1	0
Oakland	0	1	80	19
Kansas City	0	0	19	81
NFC EAST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	100	0	0	0
Washington	0	50	32	18
Dallas	0	32	41	27
Philadelphia	0	18	27	55
NFC NORTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Minnesota	54	39	7	0
Chicago	28	36	35	0
Green Bay	18	25	58	0
Detroit	0	0	0	100
NFC SOUTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Tampa Bay	34	28	37	0
Carolina	35	34	29	3
Atlanta	31	37	26	6
New Orleans	0	1	8	91
NFC WEST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Arizona	100	0	0	0
San Francisco	0	78	20	2
Seattle	0	16	65	20
St Louis	0	6	15	79

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Tennessee	85	13	1	0	0	0	100
Pittsburgh	15	68	6	0	2	8	99
Indianapolis	0	0	0	0	85	11	97
Denver	0	0	5	82	0	0	87
Baltimore	0	10	1	0	10	55	76
NY Jets	0	7	43	4	2	10	65
Miami	0	1	36	0	0	7	44
New England	0	0	8	0	1	9	18
San Diego	0	0	0	13	0	0	13
Buffalo	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
Oakland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Houston	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cincinnati	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cleveland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jacksonville	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kansas City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Arizona	0	3	76	21	0	0	100
NY Giants	84	15	0	0	0	0	100
Carolina	12	23	0	0	27	18	80
Atlanta	1	28	2	0	27	16	74
Tampa Bay	3	30	1	0	18	21	73
Minnesota	0	1	17	37	0	0	54
Washington	0	0	0	0	15	21	37
Chicago	0	0	3	25	0	0	29
Dallas	0	0	0	0	11	15	27
Green Bay	0	0	0	17	0	0	18
Philadelphia	0	0	0	0	1	7	8
New Orleans	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
Detroit	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
St Louis	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
San Francisco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Seattle	0	0	0	0	0	0	0