Playoff Probabilities Week 14

Courtesy of Chris at NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff probabilities for each team.

These are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.

There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed.

AFC EAST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Miami	61	22	17	0
New England	9	51	39	1
NY Jets	30	27	41	2
Buffalo	0	0	3	97
AFC NORTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	87	13	0	0
Baltimore	13	87	0	0
Cleveland	0	0	97	3
Cincinnati	0	0	3	97
AFC SOUTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Tennessee	100	0	0	0
Indianapolis	0	100	0	0
Houston	0	0	95	5
Jacksonville	0	0	5	95
AFC WEST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	92	8	0	0
San Diego	8	92	0	0
Oakland	0	0	86	14
Kansas City	0	0	14	86
NFC EAST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	100	0	0	0
Philadelphia	0	48	31	20
Washington	0	30	30	40
Dallas	0	21	38	40
NFC NORTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Minnesota	62	36	2	0
Chicago	33	53	14	0
Green Bay	4	12	84	0
Detroit	0	0	0	100
NFC SOUTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Carolina	64	27	9	0
Tampa Bay	24	41	34	1
Atlanta	12	32	43	14
New Orleans	0	0	14	85
NFC WEST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Arizona	100	0	0	0
San Francisco	0	98	2	0
Seattle	0	1	76	22
St Louis	0	0	22	78

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Tennessee	81	19	0	0	0	0	100
Pittsburgh	19	67	0	0	2	11	100
Indianapolis	0	0	0	0	84	14	98
Baltimore	0	13	0	0	13	67	94
Denver	0	0	6	86	0	0	92
Miami	0	0	60	1	0	1	62
NY Jets	0	0	25	5	0	2	32
New England	0	0	9	0	0	5	14
San Diego	0	0	0	8	0	0	8
Buffalo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cincinnati	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cleveland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Houston	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jacksonville	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kansas City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Oakland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
NY Giants	72	27	0	0	0	0	100
Arizona	0	4	73	23	0	0	100
Carolina	27	36	0	0	24	9	96
Tampa Bay	0	20	3	0	28	19	72
Minnesota	0	1	18	43	0	0	62
Atlanta	0	12	0	0	28	16	57
Chicago	0	0	4	29	0	0	33
Philadelphia	0	0	0	0	6	22	29
Washington	0	0	0	0	5	18	23
Dallas	0	0	0	0	8	13	21
Green Bay	0	0	0	4	0	0	4
New Orleans	0	0	0	0	0	2	2
Detroit	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
St Louis	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
San Francisco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Seattle	0	0	0	0	0	0	0