The updated Super Bowl probabilities are out. Could we see a match-up of two of the league's most venerable franchises? The front runners are:| Team | Conf Champ | SB Champ |
 PIT | 39.4 | 20.9 |
 NYG | 37.7 | 20.5 |
 TEN | 37.0 | 17.6 |
 CAR | 28.6 | 15.5 |
 ATL | 10.9 | 6.4 |
 BAL | 8.4 | 3.3 |
 TB | 7.9 | 3.7 |
 IND | 6.4 | 2.5 |
 ARI | 5.9 | 2.6 |
 MIA | 4.5 | 1.6 |
 PHI | 3.5 | 1.8 |
 DEN | 2.5 | 0.7 |
 CHI | 2.2 | 0.9 |
 WAS | 1.7 | 0.7 |
 SD | 1.0 | 0.6 |
Thanks to NFL-Forecast.com.
It seems somewhat absurd that CHI and SD have higher probabilities than MN at this point, despite SD being nearly 8 times less likely to make the playoffs and Chicago being about half as likely. I guess this is a function of the GWPs, which have surprising results also.
ReplyDeleteI'd agree. You're right--basically, the numbers are saying if MIN gets in the playoffs they'll be dead meat. It's saying the same thing for ARI too even though they've already made the playoffs and are guaranteed a home game.
ReplyDeleteDallas is less than 1% to win the NFC? I'll take the Cowboys at 100-1.
ReplyDeleteThat was before Sunday. They still have a long way to go.
ReplyDeleteWould you give 100-1 they don't win the NFC?
ReplyDeleteI'd say the Cowboys have closer to a 4% chance.
Well, Tommy, if it makes you feel any better, the Cowboys are up to 2.6% chance of winning the NFC after accounting for the outcome of the week 15 games and using the new team efficiency ratings posted today. As Anon pointed out, the table above was posted before the outcome of Sunday's games.
ReplyDeleteAs a Minnesota fan, I request, nay, I DEMAND a weekly update :)
ReplyDelete