Week 17 Game Probabilities

Win probabilities for week 17 NFL games are listed below. Week 17 is notoriously unpredictable, so these probabilities should be understood to be based on the assumption both teams are playing at full strength. Adjust them as desired to account for teams resting starters or focusing on Caribbean beaches rather than the gameplan.

The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here with some modifications. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength.

Pwin	GAME	Pwin
0.04	STL at ATL	0.96
0.18	JAX at BAL	0.82
0.63	NE at BUF	0.37
0.44	KC at CIN	0.56
0.08	DET at GB	0.92
0.59	CHI at HOU	0.41
0.47	TEN at IND	0.53
0.59	NYG at MIN	0.41
0.50	CAR at NO	0.50
0.59	MIA at NYJ	0.41
0.26	DAL at PHI	0.74
0.06	CLE at PIT	0.94
0.16	OAK at TB	0.84
0.25	SEA at ARI	0.75
0.22	DEN at SD	0.78
0.76	WAS at SF	0.24