Does your win probability calculator take into account 2 point conversions? If I put in the end of the GB/NYG game:
3:46 left. 1st and 10 from own 20. From NYG perspective:
-7 = .18 win probability -8 = .10 win probability -9 = .10 win probability
Surely there has to be a bigger difference between being down 8 and down 9 with under 4 minutes to go. Seems like it doesn't consider the possibility of an 8 point touchdown.
Surprised to see Tebow's EPA so low. Was his first half bad enough to drag down his second?
ReplyDeleteLost fumble, 10 yard sack, a bunch of unsuccessful 3rd downs.
ReplyDeleteDoes your win probability calculator take into account 2 point conversions? If I put in the end of the GB/NYG game:
ReplyDelete3:46 left. 1st and 10 from own 20. From NYG perspective:
-7 = .18 win probability
-8 = .10 win probability
-9 = .10 win probability
Surely there has to be a bigger difference between being down 8 and down 9 with under 4 minutes to go. Seems like it doesn't consider the possibility of an 8 point touchdown.
I'll take a look at that. It is aware of the 2-pt conversion, but there are some strange wrinkles in the raw data that sometimes don't get ironed out.
ReplyDelete