Marvin Lewis Kicks Down by 4 with 3 Minutes to Play

Jason Lisk uses the Fourthdownulator to analyze Marvin Lewis' curious decision to kick down by 4 with 3 minutes to play:

Marvin Lewis cost his team dearly. About 13.5% chance of winning. That may not sound like a lot to you, but it’s huge. He almost cut it in half. You may be shocked to see that the chances of winning weren't that much better being down by 1-2 instead of 4-5, but that’s because coaches are conservative and play for field goals. When they need touchdowns, they act more optimally. Well, unless they have three minutes left.