Brian - two questions. 1. Do you think that the penalty rate is valid to predict winners given that 4 of the 5 games were with replacement refs?
2. I didn't see anyone comment on it but last week your highest WP was with Carolina over Seattle? That was higher than Houston over NYJ and all others. Any idea how that came about?
Does your model include the effect of coming off a bye the previous week for road teams? I believe there's a significant effect for road teams that dilutes much of their opponents home field advantage.
Brian, I've never seen you describe Penalty Rate in detail here on the site. Is this only an offensive stat, and therefore the penalties need to be broken down into offensive and defensive fouls?
Game probabilities for week 6 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.
Brian - two questions.
ReplyDelete1. Do you think that the penalty rate is valid to predict winners given that 4 of the 5 games were with replacement refs?
2. I didn't see anyone comment on it but last week your highest WP was with Carolina over Seattle? That was higher than Houston over NYJ and all others. Any idea how that came about?
Ypp probably. Carolina seems to struggle against physical teams -- something the math model could not assimilate into The Panthers' true chances.
DeleteYpp probably. Carolina seems to struggle against physical teams -- something the math model could not assimilate into The Panthers' true chances.
DeleteTitans win.
ReplyDeleteNice call.
"Carolina seems to struggle against physical teams"
ReplyDeleteThat statement was meaningless.
Does your model include the effect of coming off a bye the previous week for road teams? I believe there's a significant effect for road teams that dilutes much of their opponents home field advantage.
ReplyDeleteNo. The effect is small but measurable. If I recall, it's a couple of percentage points.
ReplyDeleteBrian, I've never seen you describe Penalty Rate in detail here on the site. Is this only an offensive stat, and therefore the penalties need to be broken down into offensive and defensive fouls?
ReplyDelete