tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post141997019233538199..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Actual vs. Theoretical WP at the World CupUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-17894780416188098952010-07-10T17:16:59.596-04:002010-07-10T17:16:59.596-04:00The Jabulani ball is definitely a factor and FIFA ...The Jabulani ball is definitely a factor and FIFA even admitted as such on 27 June. During the match for third place on 10 July, the goal scored by Germany's Mueller is a textbook example of its awkward flight.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-69386540618258478982010-06-23T15:55:42.247-04:002010-06-23T15:55:42.247-04:00Brian - Thanks so much. I had a mini heart attack ...Brian - Thanks so much. I had a mini heart attack when I realized the page was gone and that I nearly missed a chance at seven years of data arranged for coding.Johnhttp://www.mmastatistic.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-83232643714986926742010-06-23T14:25:03.065-04:002010-06-23T14:25:03.065-04:00Has anyone looked to see if scoring is constant th...Has anyone looked to see if scoring is constant throughout the world cup stages? I wonder if scoring is usually depressed in the first set of group games and then moves back up. I could see a lot of scoring when teams know they need goals to advance, which also opens them up defensively.<br /><br />Also take into consideration how more weaker teams may decrease scoring - if a team knows it's outclassed it might play defensively the whole game only going on counter attacks (Greece, New Zealand) which would lower scoring. Contrast with a slightly weaker team being worn down by a superior opponent - North Korea vs Portugal, with 6 goals in the 2nd half after a close fight in the 1st, and you could make a case for the last two US games where they ran Slovenia and Algeria ragged, creating lots of opportunities in the 2nd half.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-88210834812092479912010-06-23T12:37:33.187-04:002010-06-23T12:37:33.187-04:00USA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!USA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-60834869357077752562010-06-23T07:46:15.332-04:002010-06-23T07:46:15.332-04:00John-I'm re-writing the post to include 2009 d...John-I'm re-writing the post to include 2009 data. It will be back up shortly.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-66413183487233770192010-06-23T02:53:05.393-04:002010-06-23T02:53:05.393-04:00Sorry if this is a bad place to put this, I'm ...Sorry if this is a bad place to put this, I'm not sure where else to write it, but I couldn't help but notice that the play for play data got taken down today. I didn't have a chance to download all of the files. If anyone has them and would be willing to share or if they could get reposted, I'd greatly appreciate it. Thanks.Johnhttp://www.mmastatistic.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-55448176404097367032010-06-22T12:50:36.124-04:002010-06-22T12:50:36.124-04:00I think the history of the World Cup is definitely...I think the history of the World Cup is definitely a factor for the high WP of teams trailing in the first half. The WC has only had 32 teams since 1998. Before that it was 24 starting in 1982 and it decreases various years down to 13 for the first one (according to the always correct wikipedia). So many of the WCs prior to 1982 were mostly played out among soccer's perennial powers. That would suggest that going down one point in the first half is not an insurmountable challenge for the trailing team because they are also a talented side and could make a comeback. Add that to changes in the style of game and I think it goes a good bit to explain the high WP data. <br />What this theory goes nowhere in explaining is why goal scoring is so weak these days. If we assume the inclusion of more teams to the WC would inevitably bring in some sorry teams *cough New Zealand cough* shouldn't goal scoring dramatically increase when a team like... say Portugal runs up 7 goals on North Korea? Maybe playing hard core defense and opportunistic scoring is a much more effective tactic than previously thought for underdogs (Greece in Euro 2004). I dunno. Any suggestions?Dereknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-32399259351331383752010-06-22T11:53:57.021-04:002010-06-22T11:53:57.021-04:00I think Tarr makes a very good point. We've s...I think Tarr makes a very good point. We've seen evidence of overconservatism in nearly every sport (i.e. bunting, fourth down, etc). I'm not a soccer expert but it did appear to me that there were multiple times when teams were playing for a tie when it wasn't really in their interest. <br /><br />Among other things, the point structure appears to encourage aggression. If you win a game, you get 2 more points than when you tie. If you lose a game, you get 1 less point than if you tie. Yet, it seems like the strategy is almost always "accept a tie instead of gambling on a win". <br /><br />I also think this might somewhat explain why trailing teams have come back more than expected. "The best defense is a good offense" is a trite cliche, but there is some truth to it. It appears to me like soccer teams that have single goal leads keep way too many people in the defensive zone. They dramatically scale back their efforts to score more. Obviously, this makes it a little more difficult for the trailing team to get a shot in the net, but it also means that the vast majority of the rest of the game will be played on that side of the field. Even with a lower rate on each opportunity, the sheer number of opportunities translates into more comebacks.<br /><br />Again, I'm not a soccer expert. so what do I know? I would be curious to read advancedsoccerstats.com if anyone came up with it.Jeff Clarkenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-71815481767285333962010-06-21T18:31:21.137-04:002010-06-21T18:31:21.137-04:00"But the differences are too large to be expl..."But the differences are too large to be explained by strategy effects. If strategy effects are stronger than team-strength effects, we'd be seeing a much more aggressive style of play than we do. Instead, we are witnessing a very safe style with low scoring rates"<br /><br />Doesn't that assume rational, risk-neutral strategy? We know from long experience analyzing the NFL that that's a bad assumption. In reality, teams often play to not lose until they are actually losing, despite incentives to behave differently.<br /><br />It would be interesting to pull data from other high level soccer (Confed cup, UEFA championship, EPL, Serie A, Bundesliga, La Liga, Champions League) to get a larger data set, and to see if World Cup soccer really is different than the others.Tarrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14368810359650066790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-91706515491162353552010-06-21T17:10:06.031-04:002010-06-21T17:10:06.031-04:00Herein lies the problem with focusing analysis on ...Herein lies the problem with focusing analysis on something as limited as the World Cup. Each tournament has a very limited spate of games. Even worse, tournaments only take place every four years. So just at the point that you start to put enough games in the spreadsheet that it feels like it's a reasonable sample size, you realize that you've gone so far back in time that any insights gained are specious as best. <br /><br />This isn't to say that there is NO value in very old historical data, but the game as it was played 50, 30, or even 20 years ago is very different than it is today. To illustrate my point, just think about the statistical value (or lack thereof) of NFL data from 50 years ago. Passing stats from, say, 1970 have almost no bearing whatsoever on passing stats from today's NFL game. And yes, I know that soccer is simpler and has not changed as radically as the NFL has over the last 50 years, but it HAS changed.bytebodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15989876051555196561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-9771497873053190762010-06-21T07:47:32.277-04:002010-06-21T07:47:32.277-04:00Link-Check out these posts by Phil Birnbaum:
http...Link-Check out these posts by Phil Birnbaum:<br /><br /><a href="http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2010/06/huge-choke-effect-reported-in-soccer.html" rel="nofollow">http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2010/06/huge-choke-effect-reported-in-soccer.html</a><br /><br /><a href="http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2010/06/huge-choke-effect-reported-in-soccer_15.html" rel="nofollow">http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2010/06/huge-choke-effect-reported-in-soccer_15.html</a><br /><br />The bottom line is that the research is inadequate at this point. My own gut feeling is that the choke effect is very small. Top players get to where they are because they have been successful all their lives in pressure situations. Besides, the pressure is on both the kicker and goalkeeper. In the NFL, field goal kicking <a href="http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/10/does-fg-accuracy-decline-in-clutch.html" rel="nofollow">shows no signs of choking</a>.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-75423206668602047432010-06-21T05:22:12.092-04:002010-06-21T05:22:12.092-04:00Hey Brian, since you're my favorite NFL quant,...Hey Brian, since you're my favorite NFL quant, I was wondering if you could analyze the penalty kick effect according to pressure situation. My gut feeling is that penalty kick success rate is depressed in clutch situations, but I have never seen any research on this.LinkLifthttp://www.linklifter.de/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-56998869803320157472010-06-21T04:14:16.429-04:002010-06-21T04:14:16.429-04:00The ball isn't a problem http://www.vm-guide.d...The ball isn't a problem http://www.vm-guide.dk/video-referat-cameroun-danmark/ Look at the videos tagged "Målet til 1-1 – Nicklas Bendtner" and "Målet til 1-2 – Dennis Rommedahl". Kjær lays the ball perfect 30-40 meters in front of him and Rommedahl takes it perfect. They could use a normal ball, and nobody would notice. Give me some videos, where the ball does something it wouldn't normaly would does, and we can talk about where the ball is bad or notMartinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-71312718191093219582010-06-21T01:29:03.089-04:002010-06-21T01:29:03.089-04:00http://footballpolemics.wordpress.com/2010/06/16/w...http://footballpolemics.wordpress.com/2010/06/16/why-are-there-so-few-goals-in-world-cup-2010/<br /><br />So far in the 2nd set of games in group play, goals per game has reverted back towards the mean for the modern era.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com