tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post165082571597628210..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Koko WR Fantasy ProjectionsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-23761665935932122212009-10-13T12:25:54.160-04:002009-10-13T12:25:54.160-04:00How did you guys set up the raw data and get a reg...How did you guys set up the raw data and get a regression line for all of the variables the way I have it set up, it has 7 different series if anyone can help I would appreciate it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-33937546110257162232009-08-27T13:40:55.701-04:002009-08-27T13:40:55.701-04:00I decided to do something for the ppr players out ...I decided to do something for the ppr players out there. I took the data from pro-football-reference.com and regressed the 2008 wr receptions myself. <br /><br />I followed the same methodology as Brian (min 20 receptions, from 2001-2008, looking at per game stats) and I ran the regression for wr yards first to confirm that I was doing it right. I got the regression equation: 0.60x + 20.0 which is pretty close to his 0.58x + 20.6. Any differences may be caused by the fact that we are using different databases.<br /><br />Then I ran the regression for wr receptions. The equation is: 0.63x + 1.38 with an r-squared of 0.42<br /><br />You can plug that equation into your own spreadsheet or you can look at the one that I made on google docs:<br /><br />http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AkxOFxXr4sZ-dEo4ckxlNjkweDNkVVRYZldjbmIwMnc&hl=enbennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-88196003732862671332009-08-18T01:13:19.832-04:002009-08-18T01:13:19.832-04:00Compare Wes Welker to Vincent Jackson for a massiv...Compare Wes Welker to Vincent Jackson for a massive YPC split.Shakehttp://www.stampedeblue.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-25643990261889574032009-08-17T14:07:01.099-04:002009-08-17T14:07:01.099-04:00ben,
Yards per reception can vary pretty signific...ben,<br /><br />Yards per reception can vary pretty significantly from player to player. For example, in 2007 Chad Johnson averaged 15.4 YPR while TJ Houshmandzadeh averaged only 10.2.Natenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-7281995867745257142009-08-17T13:17:34.494-04:002009-08-17T13:17:34.494-04:00I would think that player age (or years in the lea...I would think that player age (or years in the league should give the same info) would be a valuable predictor of next years results. I would imagine that for a WR the numbers get for the first couple of years of the players career and then plataeu as they hit their full ability and then start dropping off about 30 as their body ages. <br /><br />And of course each skill position will have a different age profile. I saw a post somewhere the demonstrated that RB's start declining (at least in terms of yards per carry) as soon as they enter the league.bennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-72164032905196813402009-08-17T12:57:45.954-04:002009-08-17T12:57:45.954-04:00I play in a PPR league. Do you have any idea what...I play in a PPR league. Do you have any idea what the average yards per reception is in the NFL? dividing yards per game by average yards per reception is probably an accurate enough estimate of receptions per game.bennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-77765572376478615152009-08-17T11:27:51.165-04:002009-08-17T11:27:51.165-04:00Thanks for doing this analysis -- this is an inter...Thanks for doing this analysis -- this is an interesting idea.<br /><br />Many fantasy leagues also award points for each reception a player records. Any chance of adding that stat to the table?Natenoreply@blogger.com