tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post1829481485322382438..comments2023-05-26T09:26:38.341-04:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): The Office Pool 2Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-55180972829667565402008-03-14T12:53:00.000-04:002008-03-14T12:53:00.000-04:00If all picks are simultaneous, you want to have yo...If all picks are simultaneous, you want to have your picks be in a relatively underrepresented portion of the result space.<BR/><BR/>However, any pool often involves multiple weeks of picks. The strategy from week to week changes based on your position relative to everyone else. There is a metagame of making your current week picks appropriate for where you are in the standings (and who your opponents are and their pick tendencies).<BR/><BR/>The interesting problem for me from a mathematical perspective is<BR/><BR/>What pick strategy would you use if you only know<BR/>a) s = the size of the field<BR/>b) n = the number of games<BR/>c) p = an accurate probability of each game.<BR/>d) r = the range that p takes on in the set of games, represented by a list of all p. (this is needed as different strategies might be optimal depending on the p-mix in the n games)<BR/><BR/>In this version of the problem, there is no metagame of outthinking your opponents based on their tendencies or the current standings. How do different functions f (s, n, p, r) that give the probability that an underdog should be taken in a particular game perform against each other? Is there a minimum amount of a win you can guarantee? Even if you tell everyone your f?<BR/><BR/>-Dan (for whatever reason, post under a name didn't work)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-55724213958194091802008-03-11T18:05:00.000-04:002008-03-11T18:05:00.000-04:00Would it be hard to figure out how accurate the sp...Would it be hard to figure out how accurate the spread is? That is, how often does favorite win by more than the spread?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com