tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post2062851493596823197..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Separating Receiver from Quarterback: A StartUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-10609207477451180412014-01-05T18:04:27.255-05:002014-01-05T18:04:27.255-05:00The reason Stafford's YPA drops off so far whe...The reason Stafford's YPA drops off so far when Megatron isn't in the occasion should be blatantly obvious when you look at the main passing options he has NOT named Calvin Johnson.<br /><br />His WR corps is worse than mediocre and the primary receiving options are a pair of 2 dimensional RBs who are good in the receiver game (Bell and Bush) and Pettigrew... you're not going to stretch the field with that when 2 of your next best targets are coming out of the backfield.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-81206871999557457082013-11-08T17:11:31.417-05:002013-11-08T17:11:31.417-05:00to Zachary Beards point, I would also say that the...to Zachary Beards point, I would also say that there is the problem of circularity here in that IF the number on receiver is the best, then by defn, a completion (at least virtually always) be contribute to a HIGHER QB rating. i.e, imagine a player catches balls for 4000 yards. what is the QB rating going to be on attempts to that player? quite high.<br /><br />to Jim Glass, you make great point about Earl Morrall and Matt Cassell, but I would throw out the name of Peyton Manning, and the Colts going 2-14 without him. also, regarding the quote about Lombardi, he said it in an era where a QB was closer to being 1/11 of the offense. <br /><br />to John Black, please do not go away.. we would all miss you.Wizardhttp://wizardofathousandkings.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-5841399867058362362013-11-05T20:00:40.105-05:002013-11-05T20:00:40.105-05:00Just a thought. I think there may be a bit of flaw...Just a thought. I think there may be a bit of flawed logic in considering the WR who gained the most yards as the QB's "best receiver". Let me demonstrate my belief to you through a hypothetical example.<br /><br />Let's say WR #1 had 60 receptions and compiled 1,000 receiving yards. Now let's say that WR #2 had 80 receptions but compiled only 950 receiving yards. Does that imply that WR #1 is the better receiver? Certainly not. In fact, I think most would argue that WR #2 is the better receiver because he caught more balls. <br /><br />Obviously there are more traits that determine which WR on a team is the "best", but unfortunately there is no clear-cut way of determining which one it is. In my example, you could make an argument that either WR is the best, but until there is a way to objectively state which WR is better, I'm afraid this study's findings skewed by subjectivity.<br /><br />Great overall concept but, as with any advanced study of NFL stats, the findings are a bit muddy due to lurking variables.Zachary Beardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-34120480701367521382013-11-02T23:21:27.743-04:002013-11-02T23:21:27.743-04:00Tom Brady's receivers (Moss, Welker Stalworth)...Tom Brady's receivers (Moss, Welker Stalworth) helped a backup who hadn't started a game since high school to a 104 EPA season, 63% completion rate, and $62 million contract -- after which he's had a career -22 EPA and never gotten his completion % above the 50s% ... so I imagine those receivers helped Tom's numbers too.<br /><br />I've been annoying people here and elsewhere for years by saying a QB's stats reflect the rest of the team's performance at least as much, often more, than they do his own. (Say "Earl Morral", twice.) <br /><br />Lombardi said the QB is the linch-pin of the offense whose job it is to get all the other players on offense to contribute at their best level -- and thus, a bad QB who fails to do that can destroy an offense all by himself (with picks, dumb sacks, mis-reads, etc), while a top QB can rise only to the level of the offensive talent as a whole, of which he is only 1/11th.<br />Jim Glassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-85222056324149588822013-11-01T22:29:43.233-04:002013-11-01T22:29:43.233-04:00Where's the discussion of Nash equilibria rega...Where's the discussion of Nash equilibria regarding throwing to vs. throwing away from your top receiver??<br /><br />In theory a quarterback should be just as good throwing to his best receiver as throwing to his worst, if he is mixing his strategy properly. The only way to control for the contribution of one or the other would be to look at their performance separate from one another, and there is obviously a terribly small sample size for that in most cases.Doctorjortshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01708231582042218526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-82646088644065736312013-11-01T15:10:12.340-04:002013-11-01T15:10:12.340-04:00It says that Stafford drops off significantly when...It says that Stafford drops off significantly when not throwing to Johnson, but almost every QB does poorly without his top target, especially if you consider the quality of Stafford's other receivers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-35142757522918094712013-11-01T13:14:44.089-04:002013-11-01T13:14:44.089-04:00Great article HSAC. I think this is most valuable...Great article HSAC. I think this is most valuable as a comparison between quarterbacks, but also could be used to predict dropoff if a receiver is no longer playing (injury/trade, etc). Mike Wallace to the fins is an example of this.<br /><br />That being said, I'd like to see this using EPA/P or Success Rate instead of QBR.<br /><br />John Black- never stop.Benhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11351630669861199556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-35549251623678277012013-11-01T12:51:55.742-04:002013-11-01T12:51:55.742-04:00Here's some interesting stuff from Neil Paine ...Here's some interesting stuff from Neil Paine in the same vein:<br /><br />http://www.footballperspective.com/which-receivers-elevate-their-quarterbacks-the-most/<br /><br />http://www.footballperspective.com/receiving-wowy-extended-back-to-1950/Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-20794140381337226402013-11-01T12:46:22.710-04:002013-11-01T12:46:22.710-04:00One linguistic gripe: a group of receivers is a CO...One linguistic gripe: a group of receivers is a CORPS, not a CORE. One is from the Latin for "body" and means a group; the other is from the Latin for "heart" and refers to something central. Whoever does proofing/editing for this site usually avoids that kind of mistake. J.R.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13913599852443572486noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-25351828346405009042013-11-01T11:38:39.589-04:002013-11-01T11:38:39.589-04:00Not sure what the point really is here. Throwing ...Not sure what the point really is here. Throwing to CJ is obviously a brilliant tactical move, because he is a great player. Of course results should be better with him. Keep in mind the "non-CJ" receivers were patrick edwards (not in nfl anymore), Durham (draft bust), ogletree (cut by dallas), etc. These wrs are bums. in fact, tom brady has better wrs than the lions do (outside of CJ).<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-44798087263403929132013-11-01T11:38:20.112-04:002013-11-01T11:38:20.112-04:00QB Rating? Seriously?QB Rating? Seriously?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01409577273429282898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-40511386808007189542013-11-01T11:22:41.392-04:002013-11-01T11:22:41.392-04:00I think the pertinent point is in the last paragra...I think the pertinent point is in the last paragraph. Certainly Calvin Johnson has an impact on Stafford's effectiveness even when he's not throwing to him by drawing away coverage. There Stafford throwing to anyone (incl. Johnson) with Johnson on the field, Stafford throwing to Johnson, Stafford throwing to other receivers with Johnson on the field, and then Stafford throwing to other receivers WITHOUT Johnson on the field. Seems like you'd need to understand all these to truly understand WR impact. <br /><br />Finally, at the risk of slightly agreeing with John Black . . . scheme matters as well, Johnson is often running deep routes and Stafford with his arm but so-so accuracy may be relatively more effective on those types of routes than other QB's. Throwing to other receivers with Johnson on the field, therefore, may be playing to his weaknesses . . . but if Johnson were injured, another wideout may run those deep routes emphasizing his strrengths, aso the drop-off may not be as big as one would expect based on the Johnson-target/Johnson-non-target analysis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-32561093299906106032013-11-01T10:53:16.850-04:002013-11-01T10:53:16.850-04:00only way to separate a receiver from a QB is to dr...only way to separate a receiver from a QB is to drag him off. This article is missing one thing: quotes for expert Football people. There's a whole lotta words up there but not one of them from somebody who played that game like me and such. This site needs more of these: " " and less of theses:+=<br /><br />On any given Sunday you've got to go big or go home because if you don't leave it all on the field then it is what it is. John Blacknoreply@blogger.com