tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post2449596448993616836..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Green Bay Is John Smoltz (2009 Edition)Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-76302815398489246582011-01-19T06:27:37.601-05:002011-01-19T06:27:37.601-05:00Nice.Nice.Samponoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-65231144679922483062011-01-17T12:48:12.320-05:002011-01-17T12:48:12.320-05:00Thanks for the heads-up, James. I should have know...Thanks for the heads-up, James. I should have known -- I love Carson's stuff on Fangraphs.<br /><br />Brian, it might not be a bad idea to include the author's name with a link (e.g., to other posts).Bigmouthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04885083460724621786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-32690198462253059142011-01-16T13:07:58.935-05:002011-01-16T13:07:58.935-05:00David-Agreed. One game proves nothing. I think tha...David-Agreed. One game proves nothing. I think that game said more about how good GB is than much about ATL.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-40429835200215799272011-01-16T12:02:10.240-05:002011-01-16T12:02:10.240-05:00Bigmouth, it's Carson Cistulli, of course!Bigmouth, it's Carson Cistulli, of course!Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-92055033259950522062011-01-16T11:25:33.113-05:002011-01-16T11:25:33.113-05:00Forgive me for probably missing the obvious, but w...Forgive me for probably missing the obvious, but who wrote this excellent article?Bigmouthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04885083460724621786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-18525915878320436532011-01-16T11:05:38.918-05:002011-01-16T11:05:38.918-05:00Great game Green Bay, and an obvious win for the m...Great game Green Bay, and an obvious win for the model. That said, thank you to those acknowledging that one game does not prove anything (would have italics on prove if I could). <br /><br />This game doesn't prove the Falcons were overrated, just like the regular season game didn't prove the Falcons are better than Green Bay (or as good as if you want to factor in the 3 points Vegas does). <br /><br />Of course the margin of victory doesn't speak well for the Falcons, but look at the win probability chart. The Falcons had a 65% chance of winning with 4:04 left in the first half. Then came two extremely costly turnovers while in position to score and the game got out of hand. <br /><br />Anyway, I'm certainly not going to win any arguments about the Falcons still being a really good football team right now, and unfortunately they won't have another chance to prove me right this year. <br /><br />Brian, great site. I'm glad trumpeting the case of the Falcons has given me reason to start frequenting it. I've enjoyed the debate, and I look forward to likely continuing it next year, as I (for one) expect the Falcons will probably continue to outperform the efficiency model by excelling in a few areas not reflected in the model. We'll see.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16811989812393513991noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-79163445013287633742011-01-16T09:04:22.480-05:002011-01-16T09:04:22.480-05:00... and now where are the 95+ comments (like in th...... and now where are the 95+ comments (like in the Week 17-Advanced Rankings) ripping Brian? Where are all those ATL-Fans who turned a blind eye to reality? Where is Prisco (the Man who always fails)?<br /><br />If it was 20-17 ATL-Fans would have said they were better but unlucky. <br /><br />48-21, that´s for all of us, the smart readers of this site. We can congratulate each other. <br /><br />I am very very happy :-)<br /><br />Karl, GermanyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-5711406760846940832011-01-16T08:54:26.339-05:002011-01-16T08:54:26.339-05:00Thank goodness the general public continued to rid...Thank goodness the general public continued to ride the coat tails of W-L record for ATL though. Made (makes) winning wagers on teams like ATL a lot easier. Wish I would have had the same chance with SDG in the playoffs. Although then we would have had good team vs terrible coach = a big question for the playoffs.Buzznoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-9636692446649135602011-01-16T08:39:25.607-05:002011-01-16T08:39:25.607-05:00"I TOLD YOU SO"
That´s what Brian´s mod..."I TOLD YOU SO"<br /><br />That´s what Brian´s model predicted all season long.<br /><br />48-21!! It had to be a Blow-Out like this to silence all critics, and the Power-Rankings which are the same as the W-L Column.<br /><br />"I TOLD YOU SO":<br />That´s also me me, several wekks ago. "ATL will exit the Play-Off´s after one game".<br /><br />I am not only proud of Brian, but me too.<br /><br />The Luck for ATL is over. Finally. Bold predicted. Good so. Worst ever 13-3 Team.<br /><br />I TOLD YOU SO :-) :-) :-)<br /><br />Cheers, Karl from Germany<br /><br />P.S.: Go Martz, Go BearsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-18947993001819937142011-01-16T07:26:21.468-05:002011-01-16T07:26:21.468-05:00(that should say "my team facing him")(that should say "my team facing him")Ian Simcoxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01518825067469269377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-21829205459303154692011-01-16T07:25:33.713-05:002011-01-16T07:25:33.713-05:00The funny thing about GB-ATL is that the columnist...The funny thing about GB-ATL is that the columnists are still writing as though ATL is a top team - talking about how Rodgers is proving he's an elite QB by beating the NFC #1 seed.<br /><br />But actually if this was a week 16 matchup, and both GB and ATL had records like their GWP (GB 10-4, ATL 6-8) they would be saying that Rodgers played well, but let's see how he does against the top teams.<br /><br />I'm not saying Rodgers isn't good, because I certainly wouldn't want my team facing team him (oh wait that already happened, I'm an Eagles fan), just that it's a little early to be crowning him after a strong game against a weak opponent. Yet more of this narrative-stuff the author points out.Ian Simcoxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01518825067469269377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-18831733021555227012011-01-16T04:37:02.360-05:002011-01-16T04:37:02.360-05:00I think the way GB dominated Atlanta once they got...I think the way GB dominated Atlanta once they got rolling, while obviously not "proving" anything (as using single data points as evidence of anything is statistically insane), does provide basis in the old "W-L record now is not a predictor of W-L record later" point.<br /><br />If a team is basically a coin flip to win a game (as the Falcons could be said to be, effectively an average team), it's unlikely, but totally plausible, that you'll get 13 heads/wins, about a 1.23% chance you'd achieve the mark or higher.Joe Rhttp://joeregan.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-86945405908333048352011-01-16T04:00:09.211-05:002011-01-16T04:00:09.211-05:00Except one game doesn't prove we were right. W...Except one game doesn't prove we were right. We could have seen the same outcome if the Falcons were 99% to win. Nevertheless...they were way overrated, and the objectively better team won.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-33715781379205967692011-01-15T23:54:06.785-05:002011-01-15T23:54:06.785-05:00Oh man, totally did not expect to ever be featured...Oh man, totally did not expect to ever be featured as an anti-statistic guy...haha.<br /><br />I still maintain that while Smoltz had something remaining, he simply was not getting it done the 2nd time through the lineup. Happened in each one of his starts.<br /><br />Maybe we did cut him too soon, but he did have a 4.95 FIP / 5.07 tERA in his time in Boston. While he also had poor luck, Red Sox fans certainly were not delusional in their immediate assessment of him. The educated Sox fan was saying basically what I said, it's not that Smoltz was a BAD pitcher, just that he was getting worked the 2nd time through the lineup.<br /><br />That being said, I was on board w/ you guys over the Falcons. Looks like I (as well as you) were right.Joe Rhttp://joeregan.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-12305412702796331742011-01-15T23:37:35.545-05:002011-01-15T23:37:35.545-05:00Tarr - It was certainly satisfying to watch, even ...Tarr - It was certainly satisfying to watch, even if it was probably too good to be true.Carson Cistullihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07899471165689117765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-24713082795456294562011-01-15T23:24:05.915-05:002011-01-15T23:24:05.915-05:00Games like this one almost make you think that reg...Games like this one almost make you think that regression to the mean works like the gambler's fallacy; i.e. that the Falcons were "due" to turn the ball over a ton.Tarrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14368810359650066790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-66052460071416684462011-01-15T16:26:14.501-05:002011-01-15T16:26:14.501-05:00I wasn't really disagreeing with the basic pre...I wasn't really disagreeing with the basic premise, just that it wasn't unreasonable to see Smoltz in those 8 starts with the ballooned ERA, everything dropping for hits, and knowing he's 41 and off an injury and saying he's done. I know the whole fallacy of "trusting your eyes", and that K/9 and BB/9 weren't bad. And also that its too small a sample size to make any definitive judgement anyway. <br /><br />I'm looking on Fangraphs now ( I do enjoy Carson's writing btw), I mean basically you can see he got killed on grounders that turned into hits. Were they particularly hard hit balls or just bad luck? Who knows. I did see a few of his starts, and I was surprised after the Sox canned him when I saw his peripherals were good. It truly didn't have that feel, And yes, I could easily qualify as a telepundit with that random and utterly anecdotal observation.Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13212173199588282847noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-37719873154698439602011-01-15T15:43:02.552-05:002011-01-15T15:43:02.552-05:00Oh. Or what Syh said. Sorry.Oh. Or what Syh said. Sorry.Carson Cistullihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07899471165689117765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-79599173755287219762011-01-15T15:42:02.031-05:002011-01-15T15:42:02.031-05:00At the extremes that's a definite possibility,...At the extremes that's a definite possibility, Adam, but, even with the Sox, Smoltz (a) struck out 18% of the batters he faced, while only (b) walking or hitting just 7%, and (c) inducing grounders (i.e. the most desirable form of contact, generally speaking) on just under 43% of batted balls (roughly league average).<br /><br />Those are not things you or I could do. Nor are they things that a fringe major leaguer could do. Even John Wasdin -- who could match the 2009 Smoltz in zero of those categories -- had a .302 career BABIP-against.<br /><br />With regard to Qualls, Cameron actually wrote about him (and the mysteries of sample size) just this past Thursday:<br /><br />http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chad-qualls-kevin-millwood-and-sample-size/<br /><br />It would be much more surprising were Qualls to post an ERA above 5.00 in 2011 than below 4.00 (or 4.50 and 3.50, if you'd like to account for Petco Park). Again, like Smoltz, he did a number of things that good major league pitchers do.Carson Cistullihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07899471165689117765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-35763460868135526852011-01-15T15:40:49.621-05:002011-01-15T15:40:49.621-05:00But Adam, the other aspects (the K/9 and B/9, etc)...But Adam, the other aspects (the K/9 and B/9, etc) <i>did</i> speak to his not being done.syhnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-153579088078655652011-01-15T15:24:09.515-05:002011-01-15T15:24:09.515-05:00I wouldn't worry Brian - you can always repent...I wouldn't worry Brian - you can always repent and rename your page 'Advanced NFL Standings', and just reproduce the standings every week should that happen :)Ian Simcoxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01518825067469269377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-60165301490984490712011-01-15T15:07:35.141-05:002011-01-15T15:07:35.141-05:00The flaw in the stats logic on Smoltz (and others....The flaw in the stats logic on Smoltz (and others...Chad Qualls comes to mind) is that for BABIP to regress and ERA to get human, it assumes you can pitch at the major league level to begin with. My BABIP might be .980. It wasn't unreasonable at the time to assume a 41 year old getting hit around like a pinata was in fact, done.Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13212173199588282847noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-81021505204180539842011-01-15T14:41:44.155-05:002011-01-15T14:41:44.155-05:00Brian, would it be any sort of consolation for me ...Brian, would it be any sort of consolation for me to say that you ALREADY look like a fool?Carson Cistullihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07899471165689117765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-69876729487405333952011-01-15T14:35:05.958-05:002011-01-15T14:35:05.958-05:00Atlanta's gonna win the SB and make me look li...Atlanta's gonna win the SB and make me look like a fool!Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.com