tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post2485785000750084171..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Playoff Probabilities Week 6Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-25110564707715805972011-10-17T00:58:37.467-04:002011-10-17T00:58:37.467-04:00Gah, I added exponents instead of multiplied! (i.e...Gah, I added exponents instead of multiplied! (i.e. (2^16)^11 = 2^176, not 2^27)Sam Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-90698907295383983012011-10-16T20:22:42.041-04:002011-10-16T20:22:42.041-04:00I'd say it's because they have a 0.35 GWP ...I'd say it's because they have a 0.35 GWP to the Saints 0.65, and as such the Bucs have less than a 10% chance of being better than 8-8, according to this projection.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-83292178376668559782011-10-16T13:49:34.677-04:002011-10-16T13:49:34.677-04:00I agree that the Saints are the best in the NFC So...I agree that the Saints are the best in the NFC South, but how do the Bucs only have a 1% chance of winning the division? If they win today, they'll be tied for first with the tiebreaker.Mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-81924017696480284922011-10-15T10:38:15.855-04:002011-10-15T10:38:15.855-04:00True about the assumption GWP is constant. That...True about the assumption GWP is constant. That's stated up front. But GWP is already heavily regressed to account for that.<br /><br />What it doesn't account for is catastrophic 'black swan' events, such as a season-ending injury to critical player, say Drew Brees.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-57255141013666845522011-10-15T04:45:46.715-04:002011-10-15T04:45:46.715-04:00Sam P, let's just consider the regular season ...Sam P, let's just consider the regular season games:<br />There are 179 remaining, in each game one of two teams can win, as such there are 2^179, plus playoff games. Where did you get 2^27?<br /><br />Anyway, such is the case that a Monte Carlo simulation is the only sensible way.Tomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-62137896900721589162011-10-15T01:01:24.974-04:002011-10-15T01:01:24.974-04:00I think a big flaw in this model is that it assume...I think a big flaw in this model is that it assumes that GWP is constant throughout the season. GWP hasn't stabilized yet and by simple regression to the mean the top ranked teams are more likely to reduce GWP and bottom ranked teams are more likely to increase GWP.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-65379083674140150912011-10-15T00:46:56.124-04:002011-10-15T00:46:56.124-04:00There's not really much reason to do a monte c...There's not really much reason to do a monte carlo simulation, when at week 6, there's only about 2^27 possible win/loss permutations. Exact probabilities could probably be computed in a few seconds.Sam Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-87903826581071820042011-10-14T20:47:03.724-04:002011-10-14T20:47:03.724-04:00I don't like to see Monte Carlo simulations do...I don't like to see Monte Carlo simulations done improperly, and to get even close to the true % implied by Brian's ratings will take in the region of 50,000 at a minimum, but probably more. There is no reason to compound any error when it is avoidable.Tomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-48168401097880364282011-10-14T18:53:30.853-04:002011-10-14T18:53:30.853-04:00If 5000 simulations aren't enough for you, why...If 5000 simulations aren't enough for you, why don't you run the software 100 times and then average the results?<br /><br />And whatever percentage point or two in increased accuracy 500,000 simulations would provide is completely overwhelmed by the inaccuracies of Brian's GWP, so I think we're good with 5,000 for now.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-13723130067255836062011-10-14T16:37:24.482-04:002011-10-14T16:37:24.482-04:005000 simulations isn't even approaching enough...5000 simulations isn't even approaching enough. Try 500,000...Tomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-2718329757708240762011-10-14T12:17:31.304-04:002011-10-14T12:17:31.304-04:00"OK, enough vegetables, on to the numbers...&..."OK, enough vegetables, on to the numbers..."<br /><br />Who you calling a vegetable?JMMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-22506442696390377192011-10-14T09:14:43.588-04:002011-10-14T09:14:43.588-04:00Do we really care about the teams' records? Ul...Do we really care about the teams' records? Ultimately we just want to know if they are going to make playoffs and in what order. Since the playoff probabilities factor record, tie breakers, and everything else in, team record doesn't give us any more information.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-25161940017455236202011-10-13T23:07:31.831-04:002011-10-13T23:07:31.831-04:00The division standings tables look beautiful, I th...The division standings tables look beautiful, I think it would be great if you added the team's current records.Alex Pnoreply@blogger.com