tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post2507972388803028540..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Sunday's Division Round AnalysisUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-27042226408754575082012-01-20T20:50:51.652-05:002012-01-20T20:50:51.652-05:00I agree and if it had been ruled a fumble I would ...I agree and if it had been ruled a fumble I would have had not complaint if that had not been overturned. The video just wasn't clear either way.jakenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-59302250881704203802012-01-18T18:22:01.738-05:002012-01-18T18:22:01.738-05:00Did u reverse the plays? Didnt u say osi knocked i...Did u reverse the plays? Didnt u say osi knocked it out after the play ? besides like u can say for zillions of situations, if the queen had ba**s she'd be kingWizardhttp://wizardofathousandkings.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-77487095521272364332012-01-17T15:48:01.555-05:002012-01-17T15:48:01.555-05:00http://g101.sportsmedia101.com/wp-content/uploads/...http://g101.sportsmedia101.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Not-a-Fumble.jpg<br /><br />that's the best shot I can come up with. Most people are using it do crucify Leavy, but two things are clear:<br /><br />1) While he's obviously in the midst of fumbling the ball it's not clear whether he officially lost control of the ball at that point. It looks like he's still precariously cradling it like a loaf of bread. It was probably already a fumble, but it's vaguely disputable from that angle. At best, it's the first frame in which he has lost possession.<br /><br />2) More importantly, there's no way to determine whether his lower calf is in contact with the ground. You figure it hasn't, but unless you can actually see that it's not a tackle, you can't overturn. Can't.<br /><br />I don't mind "hare-brained" opinions of establishing an identity by running 25+ times or whatever, but it truly disturbs me how impulsive people tend to be when it comes time to potentially join the angry mob.Jonathannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-88598330093415835832012-01-17T00:30:02.086-05:002012-01-17T00:30:02.086-05:00I think Troy Aikman and the rest of the world owe ...I think Troy Aikman and the rest of the world owe the refs an apology. The replay was the definition of "probably a fumble, but inconclusive, so the play stands."<br /><br />While everybody was staring at the Jennings's butt, his calf was clearly the first part of his body to touch the ground besides his feet. If you look at the replay closely:<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9myrrZTnJ9c<br /><br />a) Jennings last has control of the football at :22. His calf is very close to the turf, but the camera's view of his calf is blocked by Webster's arm. By the time the ball is clearly out, you can just about see his calf actually making contact with the turf. Ruling on the field stands.<br /><br />There was also some controversy over the helmet-to-helmet PI. It was close, but you can see Rodgers's head kinda snap. It's hard to say for sure, but it looked like helmet-to-helmet to me.Jonathannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-90044656191597622622012-01-16T18:01:50.502-05:002012-01-16T18:01:50.502-05:00@ L
When passes are recorded as drops, it basical...@ L<br /><br />When passes are recorded as drops, it basically means it was 100%+ the receivers fault, that's why there are so few actually recorded "drops" in the stats (see http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232). If there is almost any leeway at all to blame it on the throw it is not called a drop<br /><br />That being said, I watched the game and I don't think there were 8 incompletions that would have been recorded as drops, probably more like 3-4 but that is still a huge amount. There were probably about 4 more that you would expect the GB receivers to bring in on a very regular basis (like slightly high throws where the guy starts to turn up field before catching then drops the ball). I felt like GB could have easily put up 20 points in the first half when NY was getting absolutely no pressure on Rodgers (he literally had 0 pressures in his first 20 drop backs), but the missed throw to jennings in the first and the numerous drops/pseudo drops killed them.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-60144733376365223642012-01-16T15:03:00.264-05:002012-01-16T15:03:00.264-05:00Yes, there is 'intra-play' WPA in addition...Yes, there is 'intra-play' WPA in addition to play-to-play WPA. I discussed this in a post on the biggest WPA plays in Super Bowl history a year or two ago, and specifically in context of the Eli to Tyree play. Manning was in the grasp before spinning loose. At that moment in time, the Giants' WP was much lower than it was at the beginning of the play.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-66949524794733410372012-01-16T14:58:17.062-05:002012-01-16T14:58:17.062-05:00@TRad:
"Brian, tell the truth: you ARE Belic...@TRad:<br /><br />"Brian, tell the truth: you ARE Belichick, right?"<br /><br />BB and BB isn't enough of a clue? :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-49840752894212429292012-01-16T14:15:13.161-05:002012-01-16T14:15:13.161-05:00Good point Jordan - not sure how that would be pos...Good point Jordan - not sure how that would be possible to take into account thoughAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-48109921548403930102012-01-16T13:28:34.293-05:002012-01-16T13:28:34.293-05:00The Osi strip-sack raises an interesting issue wit...The Osi strip-sack raises an interesting issue with WPA. The WPA for a play is the difference in the Giants' win probability between the game stat prior to that play and the game state after that play. But this fails to take into account the fact that the game state changes during the course of a play. Prior to Osi's strip-sack, Jennings ran a a slant and go and Ross jumped the slant. There was no safety help, so Jennings had about 20 yards of separation and a clear path to the end zone. Maybe you can't quite count that as 7 points since Rodgers might miss the throw or Jennings might drop it, but nor can you count it as less than 5. If Osi doesn't knock the ball out of Rodgers' hand, the next game state wouldn't have been Packers' ball on the 37. It would most likely have been Packers TD.Jordannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-55809796126891556702012-01-16T13:14:29.821-05:002012-01-16T13:14:29.821-05:00I was stunned by the Texans uber conservative offe...I was stunned by the Texans uber conservative offense. Did it not seem like drive after drive they ran on first down and then often ran on second down as well?colsbikemessengernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-91763057993252083822012-01-16T12:48:24.056-05:002012-01-16T12:48:24.056-05:00I was actually thinking "onside kick" du...I was actually thinking "onside kick" during Crosby's run-up before the one in the first half. The way the Giants were connecting on the deep passes I felt like if the Packers were going to stop the Giants, field position wouldn't matter that much.<br /><br />Also I have to say this somewhere... I think the fumbles made more difference than anything else in this game. Without them it would have been an even contest, much like the predictions favored the Packers by essentially home field advantage.schraderfanhttp://schraderfan.tumblr.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-27848573662609226882012-01-16T11:48:33.879-05:002012-01-16T11:48:33.879-05:00I know this is nitpicking but...
Harebrained. As...I know this is nitpicking but...<br /><br />Harebrained. As in bunny rabbits.MattieShoeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08699019944787315876noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-39709477548047697422012-01-16T11:22:34.345-05:002012-01-16T11:22:34.345-05:00b - Not every dropped pass is 100% the receiver...b - Not every dropped pass is 100% the receiver's fault. It could be a bad throw that the receiver barely manages to get to but can't catch - 9 times out of 10 he doesn't even touch it so it's considered a bad throw instead of a drop. But there were obviously several bad drops that were totally the receiver's fault last night. It's hard to make that judgment without looking at game film. I'm wondering if assigning about 60-70% of the blame to the receiver would work.<br /><br />- LAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-64839727300326735032012-01-16T08:33:39.585-05:002012-01-16T08:33:39.585-05:00"Belichick is the one coach who seems to foll..."Belichick is the one coach who seems to follow the actions your numbers bear out in every way."<br /><br />Brian, tell the truth: you ARE Belichick, right?TRadnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-54635239726275670962012-01-16T07:28:45.545-05:002012-01-16T07:28:45.545-05:00Tom, you are correct. 8+ dropped passes.
Brian, ...Tom, you are correct. 8+ dropped passes. <br /><br />Brian, what do you think of assigning full blame to receivers (in term of lost WPA & EPA) when they drop passes, and to QBs when they overthrow or underthrow?<br /><br />-bAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-3356021077507719182012-01-16T06:33:51.401-05:002012-01-16T06:33:51.401-05:00Interesting (to me anyway) thought somewhat but mo...Interesting (to me anyway) thought somewhat but mostly unrelated I thought I'd share. Belichick is the one coach who seems to follow the actions your numbers bear out in every way. He trades down to the second round for value, he has a RB whos best quality is that he doesn't fumble (disregarding the importance of running and emphasising the importance of turnovers), and he doesn't get pricey free agents. He is widely acknowledged as the best head coach in the league yet people that like stats are considered "stat nerds". Hmmmmmmm.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-7595223359155874012012-01-16T05:06:38.523-05:002012-01-16T05:06:38.523-05:00Rogers was robbed by his own receivers, which ruin...Rogers was robbed by his own receivers, which ruined his WPA and EPA for this one. He didn't have a bad game.Tomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-34265722329174648862012-01-16T01:14:14.692-05:002012-01-16T01:14:14.692-05:00Your predictions for this Sunday's opening lin...Your predictions for this Sunday's opening lines were on the spot, and closer than my own picks.Jonathannoreply@blogger.com