tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post2550446368316427500..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Chip's Challenging DecisionsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-4603687976588842012014-09-29T21:14:50.392-04:002014-09-29T21:14:50.392-04:0034-yard line would be a 51-52 yard field goal, not...34-yard line would be a 51-52 yard field goal, not a 30-39 yard field goal. Likewise, 24-yard line would be a 41-42 yard field goal.<br /><br />Dawson's career numbers are: <br />40-49 yards: 73.6% (88.9% since 2010 on just 27 kicks)<br />50-59 yards: 70.7% (86.4% since 2010 on just 22 kicks)<br /><br />Since 2010 is definitely too small a sample size (one missed kick can swing the percentage by almost 5%). That's why I use league averages adjusted for era.Keith Goldnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16510947295485321744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-85538039892873283302014-09-29T18:06:51.645-04:002014-09-29T18:06:51.645-04:00Shouldn't you calculate the 34yard line field ...Shouldn't you calculate the 34yard line field goal conversion based on the kicker's percentage of 30-39? Phil Dawson has a 94.6% for 20-29 vs 85.7% for 30-39yards for a life long career made/attempt percentage. 90.2% vs 90.3% since 2010. <br /><br />I don't know if that is calculated in the WP calculator, but I don't see how the WP would be more in favor of the accept penalty if those percentages are used instead.<br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-47475955673034166912014-09-29T14:25:39.909-04:002014-09-29T14:25:39.909-04:00The decision that jumped out at me during the game...The decision that jumped out at me during the game was when the 49ers decided to take 1 point instead of going for 2 when down 19 to 21. It seems like a classic example of a place to go for 2, but the WP calculator suggests taking the kick is (marginally) better.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com