tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post2624808108195149975..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Four 4th Down Decisions: Steelers Go Strictly on FeelUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-37370003300335441772012-11-08T13:05:05.741-05:002012-11-08T13:05:05.741-05:00Good stuff, Keith, thanks!Good stuff, Keith, thanks!Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07880455074429334921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-49374677900272997632012-11-05T14:52:30.511-05:002012-11-05T14:52:30.511-05:00Anon -
Yeah you're definitely right that some...Anon -<br /><br />Yeah you're definitely right that some coaches certainly have good gut feelings. There was a study where the stats were pitted against Bill Walsh and he made the correct statistical play the majority of the time. I'm not denying that these coaches are good at what they do, they certainly are, but it does seem a little over the top to make a decision 'strictly based on feel'.Keith Goldnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16510947295485321744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-12204459174578197632012-11-05T13:58:50.845-05:002012-11-05T13:58:50.845-05:00Keith,
Not that you denied it, but it is possible...Keith,<br /><br />Not that you denied it, but it is possible Tomlin's 'feel' (if he is being genuine) may reliably track the correct decisions. I'm sure there are some pretty awesome chess players who would claim to play by 'feel'.<br /><br />Anon,<br /><br />And CC never mentions the third option, going for it. He seemed to suggest that punting was the best call. I'd be interested to see the numbers too.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-35495207966054470592012-11-05T13:08:04.850-05:002012-11-05T13:08:04.850-05:00Another set of interesting decisions in last night...Another set of interesting decisions in last night's game was Dallas attempting a 54 yard field goal and Atlanta punting from a similar distance.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-64285669051228245232012-11-05T12:44:11.890-05:002012-11-05T12:44:11.890-05:00I too felt the Steelers should have run Redman ins...I too felt the Steelers should have run Redman instead of the faked field goal. I did second-guess my conclusions when hearing Mike and Mike and Jaws (I think) this morning agree unanimously that no one should ever fake it then. <br /><br />If the consensus view is never fake a field goal in that situation, that is when it should be done. I'll credit the Giants for heads up play. JMMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-11782682425907257652012-11-05T12:20:01.629-05:002012-11-05T12:20:01.629-05:00Yeah, according the the 4th-down calculator, there...Yeah, according the the 4th-down calculator, there isn't even a break-even point, but the tool is not perfect, especially in odd situations like that. If you convert there, it's 100% to win. The WP calculator actually has a failed 4th-down attempt as 98% chance to win (since they are on their own 14) whereas a made field goal is only 97% chance to win -- due to kick returns, I have to assume. In general, it's not a huge deal because of the high probability to win either way with that little time left, but I have to believe that going for it is the correct decision. Not a lot of WP forfeited either way though.Keith Goldnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16510947295485321744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-71958811693200722312012-11-05T12:04:01.182-05:002012-11-05T12:04:01.182-05:00keith there was another interesting decision last ...keith there was another interesting decision last night. The Falcons were up by 3 with about 22 seconds left and had a 4th and 2 somewhere between the 10-20 (can't remember the exact yardage), but they kicked the FG. That decision is horrible since its very unlikely the Cowboys even get a FG since they would need time to spike it and even then it would only be a tie. A FG makes you up 6 but you would still lose on a TD with or without the FG so I assuming the breakeven rate on WP has to be close to like 5% for that decision.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com