tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post2898056862122741280..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Comparitive Modeling: Hockey as a Poisson Process 2Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-536116340818971252014-03-10T02:50:00.313-04:002014-03-10T02:50:00.313-04:00Dear Brian,
interesting your poisson, how to find...Dear Brian,<br /><br />interesting your poisson, how to find your file hockey-poisson?<br />I see that it's not function to download.<br />I hope that you can to pubblish again the file.<br />Thanks<br />DavideAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12045156302370900561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-64677399887744050932011-12-09T21:03:14.691-05:002011-12-09T21:03:14.691-05:00apparently not, emailed brian twice but no reply a...apparently not, emailed brian twice but no reply and no reply here. can anyone email it to me at junkmail1 at cogeco.ca ? thanksTheEdgehttp://www.sport-insight.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-29765112256351813232011-10-27T11:53:05.067-04:002011-10-27T11:53:05.067-04:00the link for the hockey-poisson.xls spreadsheet no...the link for the hockey-poisson.xls spreadsheet no longer works, can it be fixed?TheEdgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-9131057275661554652009-04-27T19:41:00.000-04:002009-04-27T19:41:00.000-04:00Bruins -300 against the Caps to win a best of 7 se...Bruins -300 against the Caps to win a best of 7 series. Do you account for any of the statistics these teams accumulated head to head?<br /><br />I'll take the under on -300 as the opening line for up to 10k.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-48909746186063987842009-04-18T23:54:00.000-04:002009-04-18T23:54:00.000-04:00Hi Brian..
I didn't realize you included your work...Hi Brian..<br />I didn't realize you included your worksheet <br />from excel?!..I have the formula I need for Logit..thanks<br />DanMr.Ceraldihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16527141701099632659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-31525095353493868492009-04-18T17:26:00.000-04:002009-04-18T17:26:00.000-04:00Hi Brian; One more thing.
I would appreicate your ...Hi Brian; One more thing.<br />I would appreicate your view on the way I do Home ice advantage.<br />League total 2008/2009 home teams scored .335 more goals than away teams (3710 to 3296)<br />then I add 1/2 of this to home teams expected G/g (~.168)<br />and subtract (~.168) from away teams expected G/g<br /><br />In your example this would be Boston 3.46 <br />and Washington 2.34<br /><br />what mistake am I making?<br />thanks DanMr.Ceraldihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16527141701099632659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-48764773046610889442009-04-18T17:13:00.000-04:002009-04-18T17:13:00.000-04:00Hi Brian..great work as always...and I'd also like...Hi Brian..great work as always...and I'd also like to thank you for posting spreadsheet .<br />**(Alan Ryder of Hockey Analytics was the first I read who identified Hockey scoring as poisson<br />(links)<br /><br />hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/Poisson_Toolbox.pdf<br /><br />One question I have my own Gf and Ga adjusted numbers for teams based on more accurate stats and I have probabilities<br />using poisson. However, to adjust for Home ice<br />I have just been adding the league average not great?<br />But could you quickly explain the formula/method you use for converting neutral probabilites to logit using your example:<br /><br /> Boston is 62.7 % Neutral logit .52<br /><br />How do you get this?<br /><br /><br />With My numbers Vancouver is 60% neutral what would <br />the conversion to logit value be ?<br /><br /><br />I need this because I have all my own GF and GA numbers for each team so I can't just use your great spreadsheet.<br />thanks <br /><br />DanMr.Ceraldihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16527141701099632659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-40187804554287628892009-03-15T23:20:00.000-04:002009-03-15T23:20:00.000-04:00Good news Justin:When you view it in the print for...Good news Justin:<BR/><BR/>When you view it in the print format, it can be used as a web query. Doing it through a web query will make it so that when you refresh the sheet, all the new data will show up. <BR/><BR/>So for example, using the web query would allow you to just open up the excel document and then hit refresh, which will grab the most up to date data on the nhl.com stats section.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-90799213106454375452009-03-14T22:33:00.000-04:002009-03-14T22:33:00.000-04:00I just sort by team on the web page, then select t...I just sort by team on the web page, then select the table by left clicking and dragging the mouse. Right click|Copy. In Excel, I just right click on the upper left cell of where I want the table to go and choose 'paste special'...'text.'Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-80978919276965227382009-03-14T21:10:00.000-04:002009-03-14T21:10:00.000-04:00Jay, hopefully you're subscribed to the post comme...Jay, hopefully you're subscribed to the post comments.<BR/><BR/>I discovered rather haphazardly that if you go to the stats page Brian mentioned and hit the Print button, it'll give you a table. Sorting still works there, so you can sort by team, and then just copy the entire deal into a text file. It's then tab delimited. You can just copy the contents of that text file into cell A1 of the second sheet of hockey-poisson.xls.<BR/><BR/>It's not as nice as a web query, but it's a <B>whole</B> lot better than inputting it all by hand!Justinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00527850321812906680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-38259335423751493592009-03-14T17:42:00.000-04:002009-03-14T17:42:00.000-04:00Great stuff Brian. Thank you very much for making ...Great stuff Brian. Thank you very much for making the excel document public. It is a very unselfish way to teach others and help other "analysts" out. Just from seeing the spreadsheet I have a better understanding of how it was done.<BR/><BR/>Justin: I took a look to see if the stats could be queried into excel automatically and it doesn't look like it. There is a feature in excel called import new web query, but the nhl.com stats page isn't reading in table format and therefore won't work.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-54236459971176676022009-03-14T11:14:00.000-04:002009-03-14T11:14:00.000-04:00From the NHL.com stats page, goals by period.From the NHL.com stats page, goals by period.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-88113667888301268952009-03-14T09:26:00.000-04:002009-03-14T09:26:00.000-04:00Where did you get the raw data for the table on th...Where did you get the raw data for the table on the second sheet? Those data change after every game, and it would be nice to be able to keep that up to date without typing in all that info by hand.Justinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00527850321812906680noreply@blogger.com