tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post3568117198373080966..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Selected Recap: Ravens 34, Jets 17: All The TurnoversUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-62792971914051851662011-10-04T16:34:36.274-04:002011-10-04T16:34:36.274-04:00Brian - I don't think there's any danger o...Brian - I don't think there's any danger of that.<br /><br />As a Colts fan, when I bitch and moan about Caldwell's decisions, I like my bitching and moaning to be backed up by sound analysis.Michael Beuoyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03960600491528993233noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-87863761598049439972011-10-04T14:43:18.719-04:002011-10-04T14:43:18.719-04:00Mike-Are you trying to put me out of a job? :)
G...Mike-Are you trying to put me out of a job? :) <br /><br />Good analysis. It might seem strange that the WP is identical at 0.98 regardless of field position. Essentially, the model is telling us, TB can end the game with a 1st down, and it (mostly) doesn't matter where on the field that occurs. <br /><br />And you are exactly correct to mention rounding. Rounding plays a bigger role the closer we get to WP's extremes of 1 and 0. <br /><br />I usually abandon the automatic WP model and do a direct analysis of the situation. I will go directly to the raw numbers and review the "needs a TD to win/tie" numbers from various field positions at the particular time remaining.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-26320702453767171852011-10-04T14:27:29.618-04:002011-10-04T14:27:29.618-04:00On the 4th and 5 in Colts-Bucs: I was playing arou...On the 4th and 5 in Colts-Bucs: I was playing around with the WP calculator, and I think it's pretty clear the Colts should have gone for it.<br /><br />The WP for Tampa Bay at their own 35 is 0.98. The WP for Tampa Bay at the Colts' 25 is 0.98. So, the punt had no impact on WP! (within rounding - I based this on 2:45 left in the game and 1st and 10 with a +7 differential).<br /><br />A 1st and 10 for the Colts at their own 30 gives them a 0.13 WP. It looks like probability of converting 4th and 5 is around 0.45. So going for it gives a WP if 0.45*0.13 + 0.55*0.02 = 0.07. While punting gives you a WP of 0.02.<br /><br />So, punting cost the Colts 0.05 WP. And as long as you had any non-zero chance of converting, going for it would be the right decision (within rounding).<br /><br />Hopefully I got those numbers right.Michael Beuoyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03960600491528993233noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-56657597600110712042011-10-04T13:16:55.039-04:002011-10-04T13:16:55.039-04:00Whoops, should've pointed that out. Yes, OVR i...Whoops, should've pointed that out. Yes, OVR is Overall.Jack Moorehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06091937728608415009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-31249390528977711842011-10-04T12:11:46.545-04:002011-10-04T12:11:46.545-04:00Brian, Can you do an analysis on the Colts-Bucs 4t...Brian, Can you do an analysis on the Colts-Bucs 4th and 5 play at the end of the game? This seems right up your alley. I have to think that you need to go for it in that situation, even if you have Curtis Painter on your squad.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-1500122927542434312011-10-03T23:48:04.854-04:002011-10-03T23:48:04.854-04:00Very cool. What does OVR mean on the graph? Overal...Very cool. What does OVR mean on the graph? Overall?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com