tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post3742907510303040625..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): How Important is the Coin Flip in OT?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger99125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-32384945885463492422013-11-02T11:47:16.394-04:002013-11-02T11:47:16.394-04:00I am one of those that hate the NCAA format. &quo...I am one of those that hate the NCAA format. "It is not real football. I refuse to watch it. I would much prefer college games to end in a tie.<br /><br />If the coin toss is so terrible and the game must be decided I would make another suggestion. Simply continue the game until someone scores. I.E. the fourth quarter is simply extended beyond the 15 minute mark. There is no stoppage in play. There is no coin flip. No kick off. Whoever is in possession maintains possession at the same spot (field position) and same down situation. Play On. sproutsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-21845985642741601862013-10-31T23:37:54.912-04:002013-10-31T23:37:54.912-04:00Or what's all that bad if it is a tie? The NF...Or what's all that bad if it is a tie? The NFL already has gone to a two point conversion (a good move, IMO) so coaches can often avoid OT, but I don't like the college way of doing things, it's like playing a game of 'horse' to decide who wins a basketball game. I don't like changing the fundamental rules on the field in overtime.<br /><br />Instead, play one 15 minute OT period in the NFL, and if it's still tied (however that happens) at the end, then the game is a tie. Oh, well, sometimes that's what happens.Elinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-6544856302806622582013-09-07T13:45:48.947-04:002013-09-07T13:45:48.947-04:00You know that "30% of games end with only one...You know that "30% of games end with only one team getting a chance on offense" stat includes games that end on a touchdown. So the Dreaded "win Coin Flip kick FG and win" event happens somewhere less than 25% of the time. That is not enough of an occurrence to warrant any rules change. Sudden Death Overtime was the superior method and needs to be restored. Mathematically challenged idiots like you are ruining football.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-55115012308162159182013-06-25T19:49:09.503-04:002013-06-25T19:49:09.503-04:00Perhaps keep the current system, but the QB of the...Perhaps keep the current system, but the QB of the team that receives the ball in OT has to hammer three tall boys of beer before he comes out to lead his offense... Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-43213001024394050702011-12-10T07:55:53.018-05:002011-12-10T07:55:53.018-05:00I think Brian's suggestion in the original pos...I think Brian's suggestion in the original post of the college style overtime without Fgs or extra points is almost perfect, This eliminates the coinflip as being important as regardless of what the opponent does you need to score a TD (and often a 2pt conversion) to win or tie.<br /> <br />The only tweak I would make is to start with first and goal on the 10 yard line rather than 1st and 10 on the 25. I would prefer to see the game settled near the goal line then a team cautiously positioning the ball in the middle of the field to allow an easier FG.James Mnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-79135622222449240182011-11-13T02:20:42.303-05:002011-11-13T02:20:42.303-05:00The author, Brian Burke, said "The dreaded &#...The author, Brian Burke, said "The dreaded 'lose-the-coin-toss-never-touch-the-ball' scenario happened in 37 out of the 124 OT periods, or about 30% of all overtime games. That's too often in my opinion."<br /><br />I don't understand this analysis. An assumption is being made there which I don't believe is rational. There's nothing that says the offense controls the game. The defense can just as easily control the game. Perhaps having one's defense go out there first could be used as an advantage. We seem to operate under an illusion that the team with the ball gets to dictate what is happening on the field. However, a good defensive team can actually control what is happening on the field. Never having possession of the ball in overtime doesn't mean you didn't have a chance to do anything, as the author implies. The defense has lots and lots of chances to alter the game in that scenario.<br /><br />What's so bad if one-third of the time the team that gets the ball first drives all the way down and scores? If the other team couldn't stop them that 1/3 of the time, a reasonable argument could be made that they didn't deserve to win. <br /><br />Also, another flaw in that analysis, as was pointed out by a reader: this scenario only happens a given team half of 30% of the time, or 15% of the time. That's not so outlandish.<br /><br />And if the other 70% of the time both teams have possession of the ball, that's quite equitable in anyone's estimation.<br /><br />A coin toss is meant to provide fairness, but it only brings the illusion of fairness, for whoever wins the luck of the flip now has that supposed advantage. The coin toss adds a level of luck to the game that wasn't there.<br /><br />I like the idea of continuing to play at the end of regulation with whoever has the ball and where they have it, and keep playing until someone scores. In an attempt to make everything fair to both teams, the rulesmakers are stripping the game of true drama. Just let them keep playing and get out of the way. <br /><br />The Kansas Plan in college has many flaws. Has anyone noticed that it takes clock management out of the game? If we had to do something like the Kansas Plan, do this:<br /><br />Have each team take turns kicking off to the other. Just one time each. Give both teams unlimited downs until they score a touchdown. But they have all the normal rules of the game clock running, so whichever team can get in the end zone in the shortest amount of time wins. It would be a heck of a lot more interesting and require more overall skill than the Kansas Plan.<br /><br />The Kansas Plan also negates the defense, pinning them back on their own 25, which is already in field goal range. Run three plays for seven yards and you almost have a chip shot of a field goal.<br /><br />The Kansas Plan is too gimmicky, contrived, unimaginative, uninteresting, quirky, and formalized. Plus it doesn't look anything like the actual game, which is really bizarre. If they don't decide a winner in 60 minutes of regulation play, don't change the rules all of a sudden.Rusty Southwickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15219593571227897865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-1279441860523226802011-11-09T15:43:58.509-05:002011-11-09T15:43:58.509-05:00First off, I hate all the gimmick versions like th...First off, I hate all the gimmick versions like the college system. Special teams is part of football.<br /><br />Second, the most important thing for an overtime system is that it's fair. The current one is fair. If you as a coach don't want to have an arbitrary coin flip affect your chances of winning the overtime, make decisions that avoid overtime. Some examples: don't run three straight dives and kick a tying field goal but continue to try for a touchdown; when you score the "tying" touchdown, go for two and the win; onside kick in a tie. It's up to you.<br /><br />And finally, given the concerns over player safety and time slots, and super late night games, just end regular season games in a tie, for god's sake.<br /><br />In the playoffs use sudden death. In the Super Bowl, do it like Wimbeldon and just add an extra 15 minutes.<br /><br />Just don't change football: kickoff, kick return, offense, defense, turnovers, punting, field goals, and touchdowns.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-66663052145666424072011-11-06T15:13:17.151-05:002011-11-06T15:13:17.151-05:00I like the Idea of having the first team to have t...I like the Idea of having the first team to have the ball and the lead win, but I'd put a time limit of 12 mins on it in the regular season. If the game doesn't end in twelve mins, It's a tie. and all defensive scores win. GO PACK GOAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-78666470224328209882011-10-30T11:06:52.782-04:002011-10-30T11:06:52.782-04:00Do not change a thing with NFL coin toss OT.
It o...Do not change a thing with NFL coin toss OT.<br /><br />It only needs to be changed if the team winning the coin toss (and decides to receive) scores on the first drive more than 50% of the time.<br /><br />It does not matter if the team winning the coin toss wins the game after the first drive. The first drive percentage is the only number that matters and that percentage is less than 50%.<br /><br />Do not change a thing. College OT is silly miniature golf nonsense and should be returned to a coin toss immediately.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-14827871257454415092011-09-12T02:50:57.524-04:002011-09-12T02:50:57.524-04:00The three ideas I like are:
1) Let there be ties....The three ideas I like are:<br /><br />1) Let there be ties.<br />2) The team who had the ball at the end of regulation must kick off. (This would make for some complicated strategy at end of regulation.)<br />3) Semi-sudden. Same rules as now, but game isn't over until you have lead and the ball.<br /><br />I like #3 the best. Seems most fair, and likely won't add much more time than sudden death.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-27220442527313822562011-01-05T10:31:51.586-05:002011-01-05T10:31:51.586-05:00The easiest solution to the OT problem is to leave...The easiest solution to the OT problem is to leave everything as-is, except remove the one element of luck - the random coin toss. Once the 4th Q ends, transition just as you do between Q1 and Q2 - no kickoff, continue at same down/distance and let the first team who scores win. That way, both teams know the rules and what they have to do and how they should manage the clock and it is predictable. And furthermore, if a team drove to score as time expires, they should have to put up their defense and not get two possessions in a row against a tired defense.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-66119560972637784462010-09-29T08:07:54.818-04:002010-09-29T08:07:54.818-04:00Um. Not true. HFA is strongest in the 1st qtr and ...Um. Not true. HFA is <a href="http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/09/home-field-advantage-by-quarter.html" rel="nofollow">strongest in the 1st qtr and disappears by OT.</a>Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-12080482914540362662010-09-28T23:38:12.546-04:002010-09-28T23:38:12.546-04:00Umm.... Home Field Advantage should be modeled as ...Umm.... Home Field Advantage should be modeled as a constant throughout a game and OT. If the two teams are tied after regulation, it means that they are about equal WITH Home Field Advantage considered, so no surprise that it's close to 50%/50% home vs away wins. You have 60 minutes of data that says the away team is about equal to the home team + HFA on that day.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-31834865330701082322010-03-25T05:46:12.057-04:002010-03-25T05:46:12.057-04:00Does anyone know what the rule will be regarding s...Does anyone know what the rule will be regarding safety's? What happens is a team gets the ball first, kicks a fg, then kicks off, then gets a safety? Do they win or do they have to receive again? If they have to receive again, it would suck if they threw an INT and it was returned for a defensive TD.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-65347319308702637502010-03-23T22:08:02.216-04:002010-03-23T22:08:02.216-04:00Brian, any thoughts on the current rule change?Brian, any thoughts on the current rule change?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-85636497100501824052010-03-08T16:46:12.572-05:002010-03-08T16:46:12.572-05:00pja in nh
8 minute OT.
Each team has 3 timeouts. ...pja in nh<br /><br />8 minute OT.<br />Each team has 3 timeouts. You play the whole 8 minutes.<br /><br />coin flip as normal. It is very difficult for a team to hold the ball for 8 minutes AND thru 3 opponents timeouts, and a 2 minute warning. Thus both teams will get the ball a VERY high % of the time, and we get to relive the most exciting part of a close football game, which is usually the final 3 minutes.<br /><br />If still tied, repeat. These *2* overtimes are only slightly more playing time than 1 full 15 minute period, plus the plethora of timeouts should make it a bit easier on the players.<br /><br />If STILL tied, have a FG kicking contest...longest one wins. similar to a shootout....lolAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-9393962842609462552010-03-03T13:45:02.288-05:002010-03-03T13:45:02.288-05:00Here's another idea. This one is not nearly ...Here's another idea. This one is not nearly as simple as the matching possessions, but it could make the overtime much shorter. If the first team scores, the second team has to either exceed the score, or score the same amount of points in fewer plays to win the game. If they happen to score the same amount of points in the exact same number of plays, then a second overtime is played. So if the Patriots kick off in overtime and the Colts return it for a touchdown and and extra point, the Patriots must get a kick return for a touchdown to extend the game.Peternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-825198752855687412010-03-03T06:03:02.230-05:002010-03-03T06:03:02.230-05:00It would be nice if someone could come up with the...It would be nice if someone could come up with the stats of how long on average it takes in the NFL for two teams to have diverging outcomes of their possessions starting from the opening kickoff. (I.e. if team 1 had TD, FG, punt, TD as their first four possessions, and team 2 had TD, punt, punt, TD), the outcomes would have diverged in possession 2. I'm fairly certain the vast majority of games would have something different by the completion of the third cycle. How often do you really see each team match score for score, punt/turnover for punt/turnover? I imagine the "four down territory" in overtime for the team that has 2nd possession will increase the likelihood of matching possessions (since a punt has a 0% chance of resulting in a score). But it can't be THAT bad, especially for playoff overtime. Perhaps the simplest solution would be for the NFL to allow "tops" - the team receiving the ball 2nd would always get a chance to match. This would allow the game to progress regularly with field position and punting. However, if the teams trade equal scores in a matching "inning", then the order is reversed and the 2nd team will immediately receive the kickoff again for the next cycle.Peternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-65611247456700826542010-02-28T08:39:35.431-05:002010-02-28T08:39:35.431-05:00If 50% of the time you win the coin toss and that ...If 50% of the time you win the coin toss and that winner has only wins the game 10% more than the flip losser that is not a enough of a unfair advanage to warrant a rule change. The game is offence vs defence. If your defence can step up and take away that 10%. Thats re-enforces the premise that defence wins chanpionshipsUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06193044591377892037noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-4962201012710348382010-02-26T13:12:04.478-05:002010-02-26T13:12:04.478-05:00I agree with the guy that commented before meI agree with the guy that commented before meAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-23984244857625695712010-02-20T00:45:45.211-05:002010-02-20T00:45:45.211-05:00I like the idea of a semi sudden death. With the ...I like the idea of a semi sudden death. With the caveat that it can't (or at least shouldn't) end in a tie. If the first team to score gets a FG, the second must score a TD or lose. If the first team gets a TD, the second must go for two in order to win or lose.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-62169628531384435682010-02-01T16:30:39.320-05:002010-02-01T16:30:39.320-05:00How about a 3:00 timed period with 3 timeouts per ...How about a 3:00 timed period with 3 timeouts per team. No sudden death. No score after 3 minutes? Coin flip and do it again with 3 more timeouts per team. No score again? Do the 3 minutes again or call it a tie if regular season. Yes, the other team might not get a chance on offense, but I think this would be eliminated with the timeouts. <br /><br />What's the argument against having a non-sudden death extra period like in basketball?BPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-5877616581220135532010-01-30T08:57:41.380-05:002010-01-30T08:57:41.380-05:00The only moron here is an anonymous commenter who ...The only moron here is an anonymous commenter who doesn't have brain enough to engage in civil conversation and rather attacks a person rather than an argument. I don't think anyone has said Total Yards is some sort of panacea, but the point is that at least in that situation there is strategy involved in the game. If you're way behind in yards to that point of the game you have to factor in that you won't be getting the ball first in overtime (thus you are to blame if you don't go all out to win in regulation). If its close it invites strategy of attempting to get or keep the total yardage advantage. If you want to attack the idea, present an argument. For example, yardage in a game often isn't determined until days after the fact as they adjust by a yard here or there up until the Wednesday after the fact, so they would need to implement some sort of "official" yardage in game stat. Not sure if they want to do that. As for turnovers, yes there are less yards to get, but if you are the team benefiting from so many turnovers that you are way behind in the yardage battle....then why didn't you win in regulation. My guess you aren't the better team (i.e. the Saints on the field in the NFC championship game)Chrisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-34118666266417057332010-01-30T07:10:51.224-05:002010-01-30T07:10:51.224-05:00doing it by a teams yardage is moronic, why dont y...doing it by a teams yardage is moronic, why dont you think it thru before you post, turnovers, short fields limit a teams from needing big yardage, and for all you just add another quarter morons...never mind ..THINK..WHY YOU CANNOT DO IT EHAT WAY!!!!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-39781290935298474132010-01-28T21:39:55.343-05:002010-01-28T21:39:55.343-05:00You could just continue the game normally like you...You could just continue the game normally like you would at the end of the 1st or 3rd quarter and add another 15:00 to the game.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com