tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post4335045720263391573..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Jets 'Push' Their LuckUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-26149666231943819562013-10-22T15:15:42.653-04:002013-10-22T15:15:42.653-04:00"If Rex Ryan believes the Patriots offense is..."If Rex Ryan believes the Patriots offense is better than league-average, it would increase the value of ending the game and kicking a field goal"<br /><br />It seems like he would absolutely think this, and not just the offense being better than league average in general, but being better for this particular type of situation.<br /><br />The New England Patriots only have a 20.7% chance to score when a field goal is all they need to win it? Seems very low.EpicWesternhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17666352127999485237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-9325889230323672942013-10-21T17:26:21.807-04:002013-10-21T17:26:21.807-04:00Yes and no. Ties are implicitly treated as half a ...Yes and no. Ties are implicitly treated as half a win.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-19795857878987011532013-10-21T15:08:05.672-04:002013-10-21T15:08:05.672-04:00I would like to say that there were reports that t...I would like to say that there were reports that the Jets knew the Pats would commit a penalty (or at least the probability was non-zero), and told the refs that it would happen. If that is true (and all reports point to the fact that they committed the penalty vs the Saints), how do you add that to the pct? Pass is better in the NFL because of the potential interference calls...what about FG kicks?<br /><br />Aaron DUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07251167413903018589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-37903029480863477182013-10-21T11:49:52.553-04:002013-10-21T11:49:52.553-04:00And hit a 54 yarder last year and a 56 yarder in 2...And hit a 54 yarder last year and a 56 yarder in 2010. Prob(success) > 1%.Mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-79841347214549094662013-10-21T11:38:41.367-04:002013-10-21T11:38:41.367-04:00Folk has hit 13/24 (54%) from 50+ yards in his car...Folk has hit 13/24 (54%) from 50+ yards in his career, per PFR. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-70338969839155121482013-10-21T11:07:19.182-04:002013-10-21T11:07:19.182-04:00"you know that the dude can apparently only k..."you know that the dude can apparently only kick the ball about 47 yards so the field goal probably had a 1% chance"<br /><br />Incorrect. NFL kickers can all hit from 55 easily. If not, there aren't in the NFLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-8984013189615167482013-10-21T09:10:26.068-04:002013-10-21T09:10:26.068-04:00This is one instance where the overall NFL stats t...This is one instance where the overall NFL stats tell you basically nothing. If you saw the attempted kick, you know that the dude can apparently only kick the ball about 47 yards so the field goal probably had a 1% chance. Secondly the punt option assumes you are playing against a normal offense that would get to 4th and 1 and then punt it back. but they are playing against the patriots in sudden death so the punt (along with going for it and the field goal) are all worse options than the league average. The trick to understanding the situation is that the Jets were actually not in a good situation. My guess is that they should have gone for it even accepting that they probably wouldn't get it and that if they didn't get it the patriots would have an excellent shot of winning.Andyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05330400337844674142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-11989202022987501592013-10-21T08:22:16.181-04:002013-10-21T08:22:16.181-04:00Brian: Are you factoring in the probability of a t...Brian: Are you factoring in the probability of a tie into your analysis? They were about halfway through overtime at that point...Gershonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13163845682803760766noreply@blogger.com