tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post4678446389754336480..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Week 5 Game ProbabilitiesUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-40984118324481197962008-10-08T16:31:00.000-04:002008-10-08T16:31:00.000-04:00After looking at your results from last year, I de...After looking at your results from last year, I decided to follow the picks that you and I like and I'm winning a good amount of money so keep up the good work and don't change a thing. Its up to the people to decipher how much and injury or momentum factors in to your probabilitiesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-32186632268203419582008-10-07T15:30:00.000-04:002008-10-07T15:30:00.000-04:00Once again a nice record for the week (considering...Once again a nice record for the week (considering the upsets). You matched the winning record in our pool of 38 people (as you also did last week). In my wisdom, I thought your model was wrong on GB and BUF. Shows what I know...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-37360941432559836712008-10-04T02:07:00.000-04:002008-10-04T02:07:00.000-04:00Thanks Josh! I get it now...sorta. Now it's time...Thanks Josh! I get it now...sorta. Now it's time to dust off those old stats books...<BR/><BR/>Much appreciated!Z & E's Daddyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11716848296384879215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-2457219078391726322008-10-03T21:05:00.000-04:002008-10-03T21:05:00.000-04:00Does your model factor in the fact that Rodgers is...Does your model factor in the fact that Rodgers is injured? If not, I'm surprised that Atlanta is favored.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-3933345009406204302008-10-03T15:30:00.000-04:002008-10-03T15:30:00.000-04:00Right. How did I miss that? Fixed.Right. How did I miss that? Fixed.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-9323029435135321602008-10-03T15:28:00.000-04:002008-10-03T15:28:00.000-04:00also, the 11-2 record for last week is incorrect. ...also, the 11-2 record for last week is incorrect. cincinatti was a loss (even though palmer did not play), denver was a loss, and arizona was a loss.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-11783963186190712112008-10-03T08:15:00.000-04:002008-10-03T08:15:00.000-04:00Aaron,The model is a logit model. When you multipl...Aaron,<BR/><BR/>The model is a logit model. When you multiply the values by the coefficients, you take that answer and put it into this:<BR/><BR/>1 / (1 + e^-z)<BR/><BR/>where z = the results you got from multiplying the values and coefficients. I hope that clears it up for you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-90690919695513801162008-10-03T02:03:00.000-04:002008-10-03T02:03:00.000-04:00Okay, so I'm not statistics whiz, but I get the ge...Okay, so I'm not statistics whiz, but I get the general idea of the basics.<BR/><BR/>However, I'm having a hard time converting the regression model into a probability. If you plug in the efficiency ratings for week 4 into the regression calculation (multiply the values by the coefficients and add the intercept, you get a result that should basically be a value between 0 and 1 (AWin).<BR/><BR/>I'm coming up with a variety of results, and how do you get it into the Pwin final value of probability here?<BR/><BR/>I absolutely love this site and think all of this analysis is awesome, and would love to understand this basic calc more.<BR/><BR/>Thanks!Z & E's Daddyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11716848296384879215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-91799869674001713272008-10-03T01:37:00.000-04:002008-10-03T01:37:00.000-04:00Edward, I understand. I guess it would have to c...Edward, I understand. I guess it would have to come down to what research showed about one 'hard fought' game as opposed to two or three etc. <BR/>What is a 'hard fought' game? I don't know exactly. I feel as though research may be able to quantify the variable to some extent. I was just throwing the question out there to see if the thought had crossed your mind(s).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-82984114361773728402008-10-02T17:15:00.000-04:002008-10-02T17:15:00.000-04:00Anonymous, that's all well and good, but said vari...Anonymous, that's all well and good, but said variable would have to be completely subjective. And what's a "hard fought game", exactly? What if you're coming off one? Or three?<BR/><BR/>There's just no way to accurately quantify such a factor.Edwardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13158622845810579702noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-42552621105045541022008-10-02T12:31:00.000-04:002008-10-02T12:31:00.000-04:00Josh I have no idea if that is true. Although ther...Josh I have no idea if that is true. Although there is probably no real difference since playing on he road anywhere is always tougher.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-48911273989597373532008-10-02T07:31:00.000-04:002008-10-02T07:31:00.000-04:00Actually, Football Outsiders did a study on this i...Actually, Football Outsiders did a study on this in their most recent annual and found that the time zone change doesn't really matter. I am going off the top of my head here, but I'm pretty sure it was for all time zone travels. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-79002952757210666072008-10-02T01:49:00.000-04:002008-10-02T01:49:00.000-04:00I honestly dont understand why NE is a fav going t...I honestly dont understand why NE is a fav going to SF anyway. Same with the AZ-Buffalo game as a coin flip. Time will tell but teams heading two time zones away dont usually do too well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-17897675665165645432008-10-01T20:47:00.000-04:002008-10-01T20:47:00.000-04:00have you ever tried to include a situational varia...have you ever tried to include a situational variable? i do not know how you would quantify it, but for instance: last week denver was coming off of two hard fought, shoot out victories playing against kc who was winless on the season.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com