tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post5043768235592395484..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Playoff Probabilities: Week 16Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-31791527726999095242011-12-22T20:31:47.665-05:002011-12-22T20:31:47.665-05:00Anon--I think you're misreading the table. Eac...Anon--I think you're misreading the table. Each column in the table represents a separate outcome--the first column is NYG and PHI both winning, the second is NYG and DAL winning, etc...<br /><br />In one scenario, the Cowboys' probability of making the playoffs is 100% (they clinch), in another it's 46%, and in the other two it's 41%.<br /><br />Multiply each of these numbers by the likelihood of that outcome and add all these numbers up and you'll get the total probability of Dallas making the playoffs: 58%.Josh Katzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06646400031653670129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-83728967497218189852011-12-22T19:48:11.520-05:002011-12-22T19:48:11.520-05:00Anon about the NFC East --
The big advantage for ...Anon about the NFC East --<br /><br />The big advantage for Dallas is that they are a game up on NYG and 2 up on PHI. Here are the projected number of wins for each team:<br /><br />Dallas 10 (23%); 9 (52%); 8 (20%)<br />NYG 9 (32%); 8 (49%); 7 (19%)<br />PHI 8 (33%); 7 (53%); 6 (14%)<br /><br />So the break down of NFC East champions goes like this:<br /><br />Dallas wins the NFC East with 10 wins: 23%<br />Dallas wins the NFC East with 9 wins: 35%<br />NYG wins the NFC East with 9 wins: 32%<br />NYG wins the NFC East with 8 wins: 2%<br />PHI wins the NFC east with 8 wins: 8%<br /><br />So hopefully it makes a little more sense when you look at the details.Chrishttp://nfl-forecast.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-78654146528580633242011-12-22T19:18:51.067-05:002011-12-22T19:18:51.067-05:00There just seems to be a disconnect in the NFC eas...There just seems to be a disconnect in the NFC east scenarios with the overall predictions below.<br /><br />For instance, Cowboys are 56% likely to win NFC east, however if you look at the The NYG win/ NYJ win table basically shows the Giants and Eagles as favorites over the cowboys. <br /><br />Add the GWP of the weekend and none of it adds up to me.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-91188517484892697392011-12-22T18:17:36.239-05:002011-12-22T18:17:36.239-05:00Tayster--Anything to make the ANS reader a smarter...Tayster--Anything to make the ANS reader a smarter, better informed, and more attractive football fan. (And, yes, reading ANS will do all of these things.)<br /><br />Anon & slushhead--Unknown has it right. All of these numbers are derived from our team rankings:<br />http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/12/team-rankings-week-sixteen.html<br />And despite losing their starting QB (and backup) Houston has been at the top of the rankings for some time now.<br /><br />Also, keep in mind, there is a 15% probability that the representative from the NFC will be a team outside the top 10. Overall, the model is projecting the average Super Bowl competitor coming out of the NFC to be somewhat weaker than their counterpart from the AFC...<br /><br />AFC Champion Expected GWP: .705<br />NFC Champion Expected GWP: .670<br /><br />As for Denver, with their .39 GWP, they are by far the lowest-ranked team to have a significant chance of making it to the Division Round.Josh Katzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06646400031653670129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-48856578037309455582011-12-22T18:08:24.655-05:002011-12-22T18:08:24.655-05:00I think the answer to both the above comments has ...I think the answer to both the above comments has to do with the fact that Houston has played very well all year but had some devastating injuries lately that haven't totally shown up yet in the stats.Willhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02178230449052059046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-81919668777927444182011-12-22T17:27:25.351-05:002011-12-22T17:27:25.351-05:00Along the same lines, it looks like Denver is wors...Along the same lines, it looks like Denver is worse than 5:1 against getting to the conference championship given that they get to the division round...could there be some mistake in these numbers?slushheadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12861720568993159737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-33154525110323171182011-12-22T17:15:54.323-05:002011-12-22T17:15:54.323-05:00At my house we're all surprised that Houston h...At my house we're all surprised that Houston has a 25% chance of winning the Super Bowl compared to Green Bay's 20%. It's certainly against "common sense." Any idea what's driving that?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-790544546150228292011-12-22T16:59:08.314-05:002011-12-22T16:59:08.314-05:00Thank you for all the work that went into this. Mu...Thank you for all the work that went into this. Much appreciated.<br /><br />-TaysterTaysternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-34987548958226974222011-12-22T15:44:40.185-05:002011-12-22T15:44:40.185-05:00Haha--oh, wow, need more sleep. Thanks.Haha--oh, wow, need more sleep. Thanks.Josh Katzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06646400031653670129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-4695364418295395562011-12-22T15:30:26.664-05:002011-12-22T15:30:26.664-05:00Ray Lewis is a Steeler now?Ray Lewis is a Steeler now?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com