tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post5096441592548614501..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Behind the Prediction--TB at DETUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-62779381452830493332007-10-22T17:36:00.000-04:002007-10-22T17:36:00.000-04:00Here's why I say TB would still be the favorites (...Here's why I say TB would still be the favorites (from nfl.com):<BR/><BR/>The Bucs defense held one of the top-ranked pass attacks to 147 yards, while the offense held the ball for nearly 12 more minutes and out-gained the Lions 422 to 278. But Tampa Bay also had a punt blocked, lost two fumbles (which the Lions turned into 14 points) and were penalized seven times for 60 yards -- including a delay of game penalty coming out of a timeout in the third quarter.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-22954983130343817322007-10-22T17:31:00.000-04:002007-10-22T17:31:00.000-04:00Fair enough, but I wouldn't say the model was wron...Fair enough, but I wouldn't say the model was wrong. It just said that Tampa Bay was the favorite. After looking at the game stats, I'd still make Tampa the favorite if they played again.<BR/><BR/>If it's any consolation to the efficiency model, it was 4-2 this week in games in which it disagreed with the consensus favorite (Vegas favorite). And it continues to be well ahead for the year.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-39987496322569493202007-10-22T17:19:00.000-04:002007-10-22T17:19:00.000-04:00Got just about everybody.Got just about everybody.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-69729812883330914702007-10-22T15:32:00.000-04:002007-10-22T15:32:00.000-04:00Looks like the model was wrong.Looks like the model was wrong.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com