tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post5590973420800064103..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Podcast Episode 3: Chase StuartUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-35503458698452776402013-10-08T10:37:54.043-04:002013-10-08T10:37:54.043-04:00The mp3 link is:
http://traffic.libsyn.com/advanc...The mp3 link is:<br /><br />http://traffic.libsyn.com/advancednflstats/003_AdvNFLStats_ChaseStuart.mp3<br /><br />Is there any way of making it easily accessible?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-56088380787413506362013-10-06T19:01:27.357-04:002013-10-06T19:01:27.357-04:00Joshua-Already in work!Joshua-Already in work!Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-13825679116955114512013-10-06T18:31:22.279-04:002013-10-06T18:31:22.279-04:00I have a request, that would hopefully help grow y...I have a request, that would hopefully help grow your podcast audience. Add a podcast section to the top menu bar of your website. It would help the guests of the show with their self-promotion which they seem to be lacking. Also, I'd love to hear from the Pro Football Focus guys(Sam Monson @pff_sam ). It seems their analysis is filmed-based and I'd like to get some insight into their grading system. Joshua Perryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12825561931105925777noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-2918510013374147182013-10-05T18:51:10.891-04:002013-10-05T18:51:10.891-04:00> Yes, I agree that while it is highly correlat...> Yes, I agree that while it is highly correlated with team strength, I'm not > all that comfortable using it to measure team strength.<br /><br />The average lead has to converge on team strength over time. It's really a question of how fast that happens.<br /><br />It's a little circular and retrospective, but if I look at teams per-season Game Script, it's comparable to the Vegas spread as a predictor of margin of victory.NateTGnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-76090073234066294282013-10-05T18:01:08.334-04:002013-10-05T18:01:08.334-04:00I agree the podcast was great and the Game Script ...I agree the podcast was great and the Game Script idea is very cool. I like the idea of being able to tell, in a general but still very "real" way, which team dominated the majority of a game, by looking at a single number (the Game Script) and then comparing that number to the final score. As Chase pointed out in the podcast, it's a fairly simple idea, but as with a lot of math and statistics, there is an eloquence in simple ideas. Great job guys!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03108711283276399018noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-37433664211835158652013-10-04T16:56:31.157-04:002013-10-04T16:56:31.157-04:00This was a great podcast.
I love the Game Script...This was a great podcast. <br />I love the Game Script concept and can't wait to see where it goes.<br /><br /> Thank you Chase and Dave and Brian.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-52232377553191798302013-10-03T14:16:23.555-04:002013-10-03T14:16:23.555-04:00Yes, I agree that while it is highly correlated wi...Yes, I agree that while it is highly correlated with team strength, I'm not all that comfortable using it to measure team strength.Chasehttp://www.footballperspective.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-13689972563111562162013-10-03T13:40:29.215-04:002013-10-03T13:40:29.215-04:00It provides a much better run/pass ratio that acco...It provides a much better run/pass ratio that accounts for score difference. It reminds me of research Carson did on the same concept a couple years ago <a href="http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/11/runpass-distribution-by-win-probability.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>. Instead of game script, we used WP-adjusted run/pass ratio.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-86810576569866018522013-10-03T12:24:21.964-04:002013-10-03T12:24:21.964-04:00The notion of using 'game script' as a con...The notion of using 'game script' as a control in analysis of play calling seems quite powerful. I'm quite dubious about how good it is at describing relative team strength.<br /><br />> ... if you score three touchdowns early, and then the other<br />> teams scores three touchdowns in the third quarter, it's 21-21<br />> entering the fourth quarter, a lot of people say that that's an even<br />> game, but the game scripts...<br /><br />That seems to say more about the game being random than about one team being better than the other. If two evenly matched teams trade touchdowns, the one that scores first will have an average lead of +3.5, throw in an early pick six, and that average goes to 10.5.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />NateTGnoreply@blogger.com