tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post5917017513688972325..comments2023-05-26T09:26:38.341-04:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Exciting Sunday So FarUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-50635169809687015722009-09-24T16:57:03.602-04:002009-09-24T16:57:03.602-04:00One thing I note is that it can be hard to find th...One thing I note is that it can be hard to find the lattice points of the graph. For a while I was thinking that your model always said kicking a FG lowered win probability, but the problem was I could only find the "before the 3rd down play" and "after the fg kick" lattice points. Obviously failing to make the first down decreases win probability. Why is it so hard to find the lattice point for the 4th down?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-10819431806713414622009-09-22T09:22:14.816-04:002009-09-22T09:22:14.816-04:00Yeah. That's too high, certainly. I'll tak...Yeah. That's too high, certainly. I'll take a look at that.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-81688817346926612472009-09-22T09:05:19.605-04:002009-09-22T09:05:19.605-04:00Actually, they were at the 10-yard line prior to t...Actually, they were at the 10-yard line prior to the false start penalty. Still, 68% seems too high to be the probability of scoring on one play from the 10.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-22845203626630959092009-09-22T08:51:25.784-04:002009-09-22T08:51:25.784-04:00Your WP graph for the CIN/GB game says that the Be...Your WP graph for the CIN/GB game says that the Bengals had only a 66% chance of winning prior to the last play (which was a false start penalty when the Packers failed to get set when trying to spike the ball).<br /><br />But assuming they spiked the ball successfully, the Packers had a 34% chance of winning from the 35-yard line down by 7 with time for one play remaining. And assuming a touchdown ties the game and overtime is 50/50, doesn't that suggest that the probability of scoring on one play from the 35 is 68%? That doesn't seem even remotely realistic.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-34753776204108718192009-09-21T11:07:10.141-04:002009-09-21T11:07:10.141-04:00Please comment on Jauron's decision yesterday ...Please comment on Jauron's decision yesterday to kick a FG (to go up by 13 points instead of 10) toward the end of yesterday's Bills/Bucs game.<br /><br />The Bills were already up by 10, about 2 mins to go in the game, TB did not have all of its time-outs, and the the ball was on the Bucs 2. It was 4th-and-1.<br /><br />It seems like the correct decision, by far, is to go for it. Getting a first down, or a TD, ends the game. Failing to convert leaves TB still down 10 points deep in their own territory. <br /><br />On the other hand, even a successful FG still leaves the margin at 2 scores and also ends up conceding field position by kicking off to them.<br /><br />Comments?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-16463608117981904512009-09-21T10:42:30.748-04:002009-09-21T10:42:30.748-04:00I know you're being facetious, but wouldn'...I know you're being facetious, but wouldn't that be an inverse relationship?Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-13994726424080449312009-09-21T09:18:56.398-04:002009-09-21T09:18:56.398-04:00Is there any statistically significant correlation...Is there any statistically significant correlation between the Chargers' WP and the probability of Phillip Rivers whining at the officials? I'm guessing no, as his whining appears to be nearly constant through the first two weeks.Tedhttp://www.rockiescast.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-69591235140272981332009-09-21T00:43:24.685-04:002009-09-21T00:43:24.685-04:00Sunday night's game takes the cake. EI=7.1Sunday night's game takes the cake. EI=7.1Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.com