tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post6135081927764930938..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): What about the Steelers? Should They Have Gone for the TD?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-17203587012196213682010-11-10T22:33:15.403-05:002010-11-10T22:33:15.403-05:00I was hoping Miami would go for it on 4th and 1,at...I was hoping Miami would go for it on 4th and 1,at end of second with 20 seconds left They kicked a field goal, but had they not succeeded if they went for it the ravens couldn't just kneel to kill the clock. Wouldn't going for it had been worth it since you would even have a shot at a safety if you failed?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-80228600154896035142010-10-25T14:16:44.389-04:002010-10-25T14:16:44.389-04:00Woah ... yeah ... obviously it was 22-20. I guess...Woah ... yeah ... obviously it was 22-20. I guess we're all way more used to seeing 21 than 22 as a score.Mattnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-57510188445824095792010-10-25T13:00:15.481-04:002010-10-25T13:00:15.481-04:00^Heh, glad to see I'm not the only one who mad...^Heh, glad to see I'm not the only one who made that mistake. Oops. Amazingly, I even did the same thing DURING the game.<br /><br />I would assume that, if it had been 21-20, going for it becomes the better option.Kosnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-38410632749279984402010-10-25T12:37:58.705-04:002010-10-25T12:37:58.705-04:00Matt - I thought that at first, but the score was ...Matt - I thought that at first, but the score was 20-22. A TD makes it 26-22, XP 27-22 or 2PT for 28-22. Either way, it's a 4, 5 or 6 point lead and Miami needs a TD.<br /><br />I assume they would go for the 2PT and the 6 point lead because at least if Miami scores a TD then you've still got the (slight) chance of a blocked XP to go to OT.Ian Simcoxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01518825067469269377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-28016799358261078662010-10-25T12:36:20.995-04:002010-10-25T12:36:20.995-04:00Can you re-run this with the 2PC factored in (inst...Can you re-run this with the 2PC factored in (instead of them going up by only 6, which would never happen)? If 40-plus percent of the time, you go up 7, that has to significantly raise the WP since you essentially can't lose in regulation.Kosnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-6364377726313108992010-10-25T12:03:12.895-04:002010-10-25T12:03:12.895-04:00Have to say, my gut reaction was going for it was ...Have to say, my gut reaction was going for it was the right move. Possibility of a safety + getting the ball back and/or forcing a three-and-out and then having a short field for a field goal. With Pitt's D, maybe it makes sense, but my gut was definitely telling me they should go for it. And as someone rooting for Miami, I wanted Pittsburgh to kick it.Chasehttp://www.pro-football-reference.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-14114931534274934072010-10-25T12:02:23.081-04:002010-10-25T12:02:23.081-04:00The Steelers would have gone for 2 (yet another va...The Steelers would have gone for 2 (yet another variable in the calculation). The difference between 5 and 6 points is negligible, but between 6 and 7 points is bigger. Does the 2 point conversion change things?Mattnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-37756395913259419692010-10-25T11:34:29.479-04:002010-10-25T11:34:29.479-04:00The extra element here is that Roethlisberger is H...The extra element here is that Roethlisberger is HORRIBLE on QB sneaks, probably under .50 in his career on sneaks of less than a yard.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-47367985921453008462010-10-25T11:19:23.344-04:002010-10-25T11:19:23.344-04:00I know you probably get tired of running these &qu...I know you probably get tired of running these "4th Down" analyses, but any chance you'd like to take a look at the Chiefs 4th down midway through the 4th quarter? With 11:23 left in the game, the Chiefs were up 28-20 one the Jacksonville 24, the Chiefs went for it on 4th and 2 (and failed).<br /><br />A successful field goal would have made it a two-possession game. It was pretty windy, but ignoring that, was going for it the correct call?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-22765678187122256712010-10-25T10:33:02.255-04:002010-10-25T10:33:02.255-04:00Whoops, sorry...a safety would have tied the game,...Whoops, sorry...a safety would have tied the game, but given Pittsburgh the ball with plenty of time to get into field goal range.<br /><br />Must be early. I forgot the point spread before the FG attempt.<br /><br />(BTW, Brian, you said that there are "few examples of teams backed up on their own goal lines with a 1 point lead," but Miami would have had a 2 point lead...same mistake I made.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-40784339166650089632010-10-25T10:25:11.643-04:002010-10-25T10:25:11.643-04:00Does this analysis include the possibility of a sa...Does this analysis include the possibility of a safety after Miami got the ball?<br /><br />A safety would give Pittsburgh the lead...and the ball...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-63971803836103930532010-10-25T09:46:00.825-04:002010-10-25T09:46:00.825-04:00any thoughts on the increase in scoring following ...any thoughts on the increase in scoring following the rules changes?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com