tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post6174414957940172339..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Daniel Khaneman On 4th Down DecisionsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-49088593894536998782011-09-17T05:29:15.282-04:002011-09-17T05:29:15.282-04:00I tend to take the cynical view that experts don&#...I tend to take the cynical view that experts don't like data, because the data can show how little of an 'expert' they actually are.<br /><br />Take the the 4th down case. Head coaches and co-ordinators are miles better than you or I at preparing the players, designing plays and organising their teams and I'd never suggest that I could do a better job overall than they do. None of this, though, qualifies them to make a call that is a simple balancing of expected values.<br /><br />If you want to know whether you should go for it on 4th down, you should ask the bookie, not the coach.Ian Simcoxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01518825067469269377noreply@blogger.com