tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post6217479642722629811..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Roundup 11/20/10Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-75485818342789551422010-11-24T14:28:42.468-05:002010-11-24T14:28:42.468-05:00Brian Billick may be right, but I think it's a...Brian Billick may be right, but I think it's a wild exaggeration to say he "has a clue".<br /><br />Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-43103869477649868782010-11-23T14:37:35.281-05:002010-11-23T14:37:35.281-05:00I should add that at least 2 of the Chargers lost ...I should add that at least 2 of the Chargers lost fumbles were the result of pure bone-headed stupidity, but that is probably no more predictable than luck.Brettnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-38255103063300391412010-11-23T14:32:29.525-05:002010-11-23T14:32:29.525-05:00The Jets are 10th in my power ratings (6th in the ...The Jets are 10th in my power ratings (6th in the AFC). They have an impressive +6.1 average margin of victory, but they have been fortunate to recover 22 of 31 fumbles this year. Fumble recoveries seem to be completely random with offense and defense each recovering 50%, and there is no game-to-game, team-to-team, or season-to-season correlation for this stat. In terms of fumble recoveries, the luckiest team is the Raiders with a +19 margin, which equates to about +38 EP, or +3.8 ppg, since the average fumble recovery equals +2 EP (not accounting for situation). On the other end of the spectrum is the Chargers who have -2.2 ppg by this measure of luck. The Chargers seem to be "unlucky" in just about every way imaginable.Brettnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-63567456356724410532010-11-22T15:33:46.447-05:002010-11-22T15:33:46.447-05:00Thanks for the shout-out. Love your blog and your ...Thanks for the shout-out. Love your blog and your stats.JD Mathewsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-6374695672268073922010-11-22T12:47:12.277-05:002010-11-22T12:47:12.277-05:00Is anyone else seriously disgusted by the Cold, Ha...Is anyone else seriously disgusted by the Cold, Hard Football Facts website? I was half expecting to find an article that, after careful statistical analysis, discovered W-L record correlates perfectly with how many wins a team has.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-76253161668049992812010-11-21T06:46:20.393-05:002010-11-21T06:46:20.393-05:00Couldn't agree more on passer rating. Why not ...Couldn't agree more on passer rating. Why not have it in real units (points added, perhaps), rather than combining touchdowns, interceptions etc in some random way?<br /><br />I always hate the way they trot out stats like 'Cutler is 17-0 when he has a 100+ passer rating'. Well of course he has, it's like those 'Steelers are 100-1 when leading by 10', it's implied by the condition. When Cutler throws TDs and no INTs, he wins - big shock.Ian Simcoxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01518825067469269377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-46490216888838221292010-11-20T17:49:19.748-05:002010-11-20T17:49:19.748-05:00I don't think Bill Belichick really understand...<em>I don't think Bill Belichick really understands statistics the way many people thinks he does...</em><br /><br />I think BB is dissembling to the press about stats he understands that they and the public don't. Coaches do this a lot. But what else can they do?<br /><br />E.g. Rex Ryan this week got challenged by the press on my favorite junk stat of the moment, "red zone efficiency". The Jets are last in the AFC in it, and frustrated fans and pundits are searching around for who to blame for why they've been winning on luck in close games, instead of blowing teams out. (Rex still being golden, they haven't yet hit on how his pass D has plunged from a dominating #1 last year to 20-something this year, and are blaming the OC for the offense and Sanchez not improving enough.)<br /><br />So the Jets being last at red zone effiency became this week's reason, the press hitting Rex on why it's so and what the OC should be doing about it. Rex's response was: Yes, yes, we all know how really important red zone efficiency is, and we are working very hard to improve it.<br /><br />Though if you look at the <a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct" rel="nofollow">red zone efficiency rankings</a> you'll see the two <em>best</em> teams are Buffalo and Detroit, at a combined 3-15, while the OC fighting for Jets' OC for worst play calling in the red zone is SB-winning Bruce Arians of the Steelers. That's how important the "red zone efficiency" stat is to winning. (The obvious reason would be sample size. Of the Jets' 611 plays 76 have been in the red zone.)<br /><br />Now I am reasonably sure that Rex knows the true value of this stat. And Rex is certainly the most candid NFL coach I've seen since his daddy expressed his opinion of Kevin Gilbride's play calling by punching him out in the middle of a game. But what else could Rex say? <br /><br />Imagine what the reaction would have been if Rex had said: "You morons think that stat matters just because every poser hack TV commentator, sports reporter and sports radio pundit tells you over and over that it does, to be able to have something to say? Do any of you press geniuses know who is leading the league in that stat?..." It would probably have been pretty much like the reaction to BB's decision to go for it on 4th-and-2 against the Colts last year, maybe x 20.<br /><br />He could never say such a thing. Even politely. (I couldn't say it in a Jets discussion group this week without getting hit with a flood of, "Jackbutt, you'd make any lame excuse to defend Sch*tty Schott as he destroys our O in what should be our championship year. Are you his bastard kid by goat?")<br /><br />So the HCs say what they have to say. I'm sure they do this all the time. Consider it "mob management".Jim Glassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-13917261777371941052010-11-20T15:46:37.187-05:002010-11-20T15:46:37.187-05:00The lowest EI I have is 0.7 for last year's CI...The lowest EI I have is 0.7 for last year's <a href="http://wp.advancednflstats.com/index.php?gameid1=54715" rel="nofollow">CIN-NYJ game</a>. It was week 17, and CIN did not need the game but NYJ did.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-75937636944940875472010-11-20T15:20:36.186-05:002010-11-20T15:20:36.186-05:00Passer Rating and the Hollinger Efficiency Ratings...Passer Rating and the Hollinger Efficiency Ratings for basketball are both pretty arbitrary.<br /><br />Also, did we ever determine whether the Skins-Eagles game was the least exciting in your database?Probable Pickshttp://probablepicks.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-73706184108067954432010-11-20T15:09:33.430-05:002010-11-20T15:09:33.430-05:00NFL passing rating so over-weights completion pct ...NFL passing rating so over-weights completion pct that as long as the QB completes passes even that *lose* yards -- in any amount! -- he gets a rating of 79.2. For instance, if a QB hits 10 of 10 for minus 990 yards his rating is 79.2. How useless is that? <a href="http://www.primecomputing.com/" rel="nofollow">See for yourself</a>.<br /><br />Last year 79.2 would have been #21 of the NFL rating list. That QB who lost 99 yards per play would have been rated ahead of Cutler, Sanchez, Henne, Hasselbeck, Cassel, Delhomme ... all right, maybe it's not entirely useless but you get my point.Jim Glassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-9607732822563863202010-11-20T12:02:42.067-05:002010-11-20T12:02:42.067-05:00I think BB understands things pretty well, he even...I think BB understands things pretty well, he even specifically mentions correlation with scoring, which is really the heart of the matter.TBDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15039327932041273177noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-48983326647562441782010-11-20T11:16:02.025-05:002010-11-20T11:16:02.025-05:00Garrard link is broken.Garrard link is broken.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com