tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post6257262760499159169..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Predictability KillsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-21863839884397756742011-11-04T11:50:25.821-04:002011-11-04T11:50:25.821-04:00Absolutely fascinating...Absolutely fascinating...bigmouthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00336001437381184261noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-9976454529575873942011-11-03T23:49:30.675-04:002011-11-03T23:49:30.675-04:00Someone should look at the 1989/1990 Vikings with ...Someone should look at the 1989/1990 Vikings with Herschel Walker. He had to come off of the field for certain formations, I think it may have been pass plays in general. Anyways, most predictable play calling ever! And predictable result.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-42934433549378942542011-11-03T10:43:59.155-04:002011-11-03T10:43:59.155-04:00@Anonymous I think you're dead on with your po...@Anonymous I think you're dead on with your point about tendencies setting up counter plays, but my point is that Garrett is NOT taking advantage of his tendencies. I checked out my spreadsheets and the Cowboys actually have thrown the ball 10+ yards from all variations of this formation less than 5% of the time over the past 39 games. Even fewer of those have been playaction.Jonathan Balesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-9780219123976602082011-11-03T10:09:49.727-04:002011-11-03T10:09:49.727-04:00One of the major problems with this analysis is th...One of the major problems with this analysis is that tendencies -- something every team analyzes -- can be as much a weapon as they are a detriment. This is nothing new. Teams self-scout and opposing teams scout them. They analyze not just formations (keeping in mind sample size) and they analyze alignments of people like the runningbacks, linemen and so on. The depth of their alignment, where they line up in relation to other players, the splits between players, and so on.<br /><br />Sure, if a defense finds a key they will act on it. But a tendency also sets up the counter play. You show a look and throw play-action off of it (something I've seen Dallas do from this look a bunch). It's not as simple as you make it. On the one hand you can try to have zero tendencies but that's silly and overdone. Instead you just self-scout them and break them. It's football.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-51800481903260888352011-11-03T08:11:23.901-04:002011-11-03T08:11:23.901-04:00@Arif From what I have studied with Dallas, there ...@Arif From what I have studied with Dallas, there are certainly some looks which have specific plays attached to them, but none with the same sort of consistency as the strong side dive from DTS. Actually, nothing is even close, and the most alarming issue to me is that Garrett continues to call the play (albeit at a lower rate) in "regular" down and distances.Jonathan Balesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-756458850397411142011-11-03T06:29:28.304-04:002011-11-03T06:29:28.304-04:00It's just the same as teams who line up in pow...It's just the same as teams who line up in power run formations on 4th and 1. Gee, I wonder if you fooled the defense. Spread it out, throw deep. It amazes me how coaches seem to call for 1 yard plays when there's a yard to go. There's a whole field out there. Use it!!Ian Snoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-87691926982515813182011-11-03T05:44:01.806-04:002011-11-03T05:44:01.806-04:00Arif: my understanding is that each team has peopl...Arif: my understanding is that each team has people who compile that information from viewing the coach's tapes--generally this is the very lowest step on the coaching ladder.Sam's Hideouthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17861031623526621055noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-72564234966416563752011-11-03T00:21:37.944-04:002011-11-03T00:21:37.944-04:00very good article.very good article.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-52231544475943528062011-11-02T23:52:42.046-04:002011-11-02T23:52:42.046-04:00Curious. I would imagine however, that there are a...Curious. I would imagine however, that there are a number of offensive looks that have typical plays, and it would pay off to stagger when one deviates from the "established" typical, at a rate, generally of implementing and establishing new looks with new norms.<br /><br />Also, is data on how often an offense or a defense lines up with a particular formation widely available? I might even be willing to pay for it, if it includes game-by-game data.Arifhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14708980537811861192noreply@blogger.com