tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post6803511240130769531..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): The Importance of Playoff SeedingUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-16284627245231244022012-12-27T18:46:23.703-05:002012-12-27T18:46:23.703-05:00Thanks, Brian, I enjoyed this.
I look forward to ...Thanks, Brian, I enjoyed this.<br /><br />I look forward to updates, anticipating your addition of such as W/L records, say, to control for the hypothetically smaller difference in strength of #4 & #5 seed teams.DCFanOutWestnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-21568434758522356102012-11-20T15:44:35.520-05:002012-11-20T15:44:35.520-05:00The probability for seed 3 with your assumptions i...The probability for seed 3 with your assumptions is exactly 0.4*probability for seed 2. They both play a home game first (P=0.6), they both have the same probability of winning the conference championship (P = 2*0.6*0.4 as shown above). The difference is the 3 seed plays an extra road game (P=0.4)<br /><br />P 3seed = 0.4*0.288 = 0.1152Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-72279887879692456772012-01-09T01:22:19.611-05:002012-01-09T01:22:19.611-05:00Noticed a small error. I decided to verify these p...Noticed a small error. I decided to verify these probabilities and for seed #3 got 11.7%. So in your table, that entry should round up to 12% and the overall total would be 100%.Pat Laffayehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00737248446223495489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-64395872941711825182012-01-08T08:58:51.574-05:002012-01-08T08:58:51.574-05:00Love this analysis. I'd agree with both notio...Love this analysis. I'd agree with both notions that the "problem with 4 and 5" is probably that they are weak teams who have won in a weak division and that the success of 6 teams is a "peaking" team (because of injury, player development, coaching strategy, who knows). However, I'd translate that into team strength which means that seeding isn't more important than strength, as the article concludes. Thanks for delicious food for thought, KipAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-28759952281835877362011-12-31T18:42:29.010-05:002011-12-31T18:42:29.010-05:00Could someone write this into a probability formul...Could someone write this into a probability formula?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-26234667121330045922011-12-28T10:32:31.334-05:002011-12-28T10:32:31.334-05:00Is there any data on the idea of teams "peaki...Is there any data on the idea of teams "peaking at the right time?" You hear about this a lot, and just this weekend my father and I were talking about whether or not the Packers had peaked too soon, and my thoughts were A) is my Dad saying that just because the Packers happened to lose in week 15 instead of, say, week 5, and B) I suspect that the whole "peaking at the right time" phenomenon is about as real as in-game momentum. I'm curious if there's been any actual analysis don on that.Danhttp://www.nationalparksartist.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-75597209815427748802011-12-26T23:12:10.332-05:002011-12-26T23:12:10.332-05:00Clark ended his 2007 season early after having his...Clark ended his 2007 season early after having his spleen and gall bladder removed, after a game in the thin air of Denver's Invesco Field at Mile High caused health problems with Clark's blood due to sickle cell trait (because of this, whenever his team plays in Denver, Clark does not play). Clark lost 30 pounds after the removal, but has returned to the Steelers in 2008.<br /><br />From Wikipedia. I personally remember Clark sitting out Pitt's last game at DenverAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-92097666243271813392011-12-26T10:40:06.219-05:002011-12-26T10:40:06.219-05:00@Michael your wrote: "For the Steelers, it...@Michael your wrote: "For the Steelers, it's noteworthy that their starting FS cannot play in altitude due to a medical condition. "<br /><br />total BS.<br /><br />What is the medical condition, and how is it he played in Denver on Nov 9, 2009, Jan 22, 2005, Oct 21, 2007, and perhaps in preseason, college, or high school games of which I am unaware (although quite doubtful for college or high school of course).<br /><br />Your brand of BS seems to come in particularly large bags.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-58155164734035253412011-12-26T10:24:20.034-05:002011-12-26T10:24:20.034-05:00@ SkyJo ""No one remarks when the #3 see...@ SkyJo ""No one remarks when the #3 seed makes it to the big game, despite it being less likely than either of a conference’s two wildcard seeds to make it." Why is it the case that #3 is less likely than #5 or #6? "<br /><br />#3 is less likely than #5 and #6 COMBINED, not individually. Review the table.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-35860025607880811162011-12-26T10:22:47.657-05:002011-12-26T10:22:47.657-05:00@ Dan "It appears that there are only 19 data...@ Dan "It appears that there are only 19 data points in this set. So that means 2 appearances vs. 1 appearance. Noise. "<br /><br />9 years. 2 conferences. 18 data points.<br /><br />Unless Tebow is the 19th?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-14576117633123629862011-12-26T10:20:48.251-05:002011-12-26T10:20:48.251-05:00@ anon:
"If the 49ers and Saints had equal pr...@ anon:<br />"If the 49ers and Saints had equal probability of obtaining the 2nd seed, wouldn't the fall be from 20% to 11%? 29x + 11(1-x) is only 29 when x is 1, indicating the seed is already locked up...which of course nullifies the entire argument."<br /><br />I didn't even ask, where the hell did you get your formula of 29x + 11(1-x) anyway? Pulled that out of some warm dark place with no justification. Back to 7th grade math for you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-13935993879079301792011-12-26T10:15:41.562-05:002011-12-26T10:15:41.562-05:00@ anon: you wrote:
"If the 49ers and Saints h...@ anon: you wrote:<br />"If the 49ers and Saints had equal probability of obtaining the 2nd seed, wouldn't the fall be from 20% to 11%? 29x + 11(1-x) is only 29 when x is 1, indicating the seed is already locked up...which of course nullifies the entire argument."<br /><br />No, you miss the entire argument. The model does not care which team is BETTER, only which team gets which seeding which results in which teams get byes and which teams get to play at home.<br /><br />So the fight for seeding IS the issue (in this simplistic model) NOT which team is actually better!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-34749498271923615422011-12-26T10:12:12.781-05:002011-12-26T10:12:12.781-05:00@Michael: there is no such thing as a "free w...@Michael: there is no such thing as a "free win" in the NFL. Perhaps the Steelers and Ravens have a better than 40% chance of beating the Broncos in Denver (as this simplistic model assumes) but 40% is probably closer than your ridiculous suggestion that we use a 100% Bronco loss model in place of the model used in the article.<br /><br />And the historical predictions are an almost perfect match to actual outcomes observed: ONE extra sixth seed made it, ONE extra first seed, and one too few second and fourth seeds.<br /><br />Pitt and Balt should be fighting tooth and nail for that second seed while NE will do all possible to keep the #1.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-34723708188766158552011-12-25T19:02:38.640-05:002011-12-25T19:02:38.640-05:00Hi Michael,
I think it is because I think the st...Hi Michael, <br /><br />I think it is because I think the steelers and ravens are above average teams and the broncos are a below average team. i think the steelers or ravens should kill the broncos but then again it is just my opinion. so what that would mean if i am correct in my assumption is that the free game does not matter in this instance as either team should kill the broncos and essentially get a free win.stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18318458782116901889noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-28645593225716623252011-12-25T05:58:12.603-05:002011-12-25T05:58:12.603-05:00"Right now the 49ers and Saints are jockeying..."Right now the 49ers and Saints are jockeying for the #2 seed in the NFC. The loser of that battle will fall from a 29% shot to an 11% shot at making the Super Bowl."<br /><br />If the 49ers and Saints had equal probability of obtaining the 2nd seed, wouldn't the fall be from 20% to 11%? 29x + 11(1-x) is only 29 when x is 1, indicating the seed is already locked up...which of course nullifies the entire argument.<br /><br />Semantics, yes, but otherwise the importance of the battle is overstated.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-88379662697396501302011-12-24T23:00:39.195-05:002011-12-24T23:00:39.195-05:00"No one remarks when the #3 seed makes it to ..."No one remarks when the #3 seed makes it to the big game, despite it being less likely than either of a conference’s two wildcard seeds to make it." Why is it the case that #3 is less likely than #5 or #6?SkyJonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-12362329597260780012011-12-24T18:58:49.471-05:002011-12-24T18:58:49.471-05:00Steve, is that because you think both AFC North te...Steve, is that because you think both AFC North teams would have a large road presence? <br /><br />For the Steelers, it's noteworthy that their starting FS cannot play in altitude due to a medical condition.Michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16159925193759186283noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-31027071023872333152011-12-24T18:54:40.446-05:002011-12-24T18:54:40.446-05:00Thanks Brian for doing this. I was actually thinki...Thanks Brian for doing this. I was actually thinking about doing the exact same thing, so you just saved me a lot of work. I too think too little is made of the fact that getting a bye means you 100% cannot lose in the first round.<br /><br />I really don't like the discontinuity between #2 and #3, but I don't know how to resolve it withou radical changes to the playoffs.Michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16159925193759186283noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-46340731509146548372011-12-23T18:45:32.223-05:002011-12-23T18:45:32.223-05:00i think this year when either steelers/ravens play...i think this year when either steelers/ravens play broncos's and tim tebow the effect would be lot less significant. but then again that is a subjective judgement on my partstevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18318458782116901889noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-48266114951584945192011-12-23T18:26:14.763-05:002011-12-23T18:26:14.763-05:00"I also understand why seed #4 is under it..."I also understand why seed #4 is under it's expectation, this is more likely to be the worst division winner...who probably doesn't belong in the playoffs. (I'm looking at you NFC West)"<br /><br />The 6% for the #4 seed that made the SB is Cardinals. NFC West gets #4 more often than any other division. But you are talking about a small samples size and 1 sample difference.<br /><br />Also in 9 years NFC West sent 2 teams to Super Bowl. That is about the expected value (2.25). Given then there is usually no WC team from NFC West you can say that NFC West outperforms other divisions in how much success they get after getting in playoffs.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-86619891391242058752011-12-23T16:48:39.236-05:002011-12-23T16:48:39.236-05:001990-2001 (three divisions instead of 4), the only...1990-2001 (three divisions instead of 4), the only teams that made it to a Super Bowl were the 1, 2, and 4 seeds.Jonathannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-47945669858399840222011-12-23T15:00:15.919-05:002011-12-23T15:00:15.919-05:00Regarding the #6 seed sometimes outperforming the ...Regarding the #6 seed sometimes outperforming the #5 seed...<br /><br />There was a study, I think at Pro Football Reference's blog, that showed that tiebreakers tend to favor the team with the worse actual skill level.Rikkihttp://schraderfan.tumblr.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-4627448237370688362011-12-23T14:17:55.985-05:002011-12-23T14:17:55.985-05:00I'm going to edit the post to underscore the s...I'm going to edit the post to underscore the small sample effect.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-45252700955423520442011-12-23T14:16:58.857-05:002011-12-23T14:16:58.857-05:00Dan S is correct.
Over the long run, we should ex...Dan S is correct.<br /><br />Over the long run, we should expect the 5th seed to over-perform and the 4th seed to under-perform their expected SB appearance rates. 4th seeds are the weakest division winners (like SEA last year or whoever wins the AFC W this year), while 5th seeds are often really good teams just behind a slightly better team--think BAL and PIT or NYJ and NE.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-29317291737437446042011-12-23T13:25:26.007-05:002011-12-23T13:25:26.007-05:00Before small sample size was pointed out, my thoug...Before small sample size was pointed out, my thoughts regarding the 6th seed was it could be a team peaking at the right time. Maybe it was brought down early in the season by bad luck/injuries, and now its getting a stretch of good luck/healthy players.<br /><br />Also, to really drive home the importance of the bye, just give every team a 50/50 chance. .5*.5=.25 for the top 2 seeds. .5*.5*.5=.125 for the rest. All but the most ardent Tebow fans should be able to understand that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com