tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post6808467230358895818..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Home Field Advantage by QuarterUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-83413484572054904432010-09-14T04:26:43.606-04:002010-09-14T04:26:43.606-04:00What you are missing in this analysis is the WP af...What you are missing in this analysis is the WP affecting the home crowd. In the first quarter of every game, the crowd is always into it. The score starts out 0-0 and almost always is within 14 points in the first quarter, meaning the home team has their home crowd advantage. <br /><br />Later in games (specifically the 4th quarter) the home team could be up or down 31-13, making the Win Probability too high or too low for the crowd to be "into the game".<br /><br />The further into the game, the more likely it is that the individual play won't matter towards the outcome of the game. Not to have that interpreted as plays later in the game are less important. I am saying that the percentage chance of the play having an outcome on the games winner is less, not how big of a difference that individual play will make.<br /><br />My theory is that if the crowd is into the game, it doesn't matter "how into it" they are. When they are really cheering hard in the first quarter, the difference of cheering in the 4th quarter isn't much greater and does not have an effect.<br /><br />I would suggest you look at the percentage of points the home team scores when their win probability is between 35% and 65%. I believe that regardless of the quarter, the home field advantage is greater when it is a close game, rather than a blowout either way.Blakershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04794475998146147047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-41991263252350500052010-01-19T22:14:52.567-05:002010-01-19T22:14:52.567-05:00Me too, i am from europe. I know soccer coaches aw...Me too, i am from europe. I know soccer coaches away from home tend to play more conservative...<br /><br /> Translate to Football: Home team more aggresiv > early lead > away team behind > away team gets more agressiv while home team gets more conservativ ("sitting on lead")...<br /><br />Result: HFA only in 1st Qtr. Just see the obvious, while not getting confused by the numbers.<br /><br />To illustrate that more: Y/Run is even, while Y/PP is a high advantage by home team.<br /><br />I guess all that high Y/PP advantage comes in the agressiv 1st Qtr.<br /><br />Conclusion: Away teams should be more aggresiv (both in soccer and football) then the HFA disapearsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-18263465746079049092009-02-09T06:18:00.000-05:002009-02-09T06:18:00.000-05:00Judging by these results, my theory is that home f...Judging by these results, my theory is that home field advantage comes from being used to playing in a stadium. For instance, home qb's are used to the colour of the crowd's jerseys and pick out their receivers better, home kickers are more familiar with footing etc. As the game goes on, the away players start to get used to the conditions and the advantage the home team has diminishes. <BR/><BR/>As NFL home field advantage is quite small, it might be interesting to see what parts of the game are unaffected by it. Also, it might be interesting to see whether away teams perform better in divisional games than in inter-conference games as, for instance, the Eagles play more games in Washington than they do in Oakland, therefore (according to my theory) would be more used to Washington's stadium than Oakland's.<BR/><BR/>I play rugby myself and even in our crowdless amateur leagues there is a large home field advantage, which seems to come from a subconscious understanding of the ideosyncrasies of the pitch.Ian Simcoxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01518825067469269377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-76229464367753530932008-10-08T16:17:00.000-04:002008-10-08T16:17:00.000-04:00Thanks BrianI just read a couple more articles on ...Thanks Brian<BR/><BR/>I just read a couple more articles on your site. You're a whiz! I'll surely be back. Thanks for the tip.<BR/><BR/>DaveAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-63289298945926743032008-10-08T16:07:00.000-04:002008-10-08T16:07:00.000-04:00Anon-thanks. Glad you like the site. I haven't don...Anon-thanks. Glad you like the site. I haven't done the analysis myself, but it's been done many times. I'd google 'super bowl squares' and look for anything from Doug Drinen. If I recall, I think he did an analysis recently.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-53854735359696335982008-10-08T15:58:00.000-04:002008-10-08T15:58:00.000-04:00I've really enjoyed browsing through your site -- ...I've really enjoyed browsing through your site -- very interesting. This is a bit off topic, but relates to scores per quarter. In the typical single game (Monday night, Superbowl, etc.) office football pool (10x10 grid of randomly selected digit combinations, with payouts each quarter for the square matching the last digits of the teams' scores) what are the six or seven most commonly winning digits? Short of answering this yourself, could you point me to a web reference for a couple of seasons' scores by quarter to do the analysis myself? I'm thinking the most common digits are 0,7,4,3, but I'm working on a pool for a smaller group and I'd like to know which digits to use. Thanks!<BR/><BR/>DaveAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-9386435605684201332008-10-01T14:57:00.000-04:002008-10-01T14:57:00.000-04:00Nanker:I haven't yet as I am still finalising all ...Nanker:<BR/>I haven't yet as I am still finalising all details...I hope to finish it off shortly...<BR/><BR/>Brian:<BR/>I haven't read or found anything about that,but I fear the sample may not big enough... in Italy you have an average 3-4 games per year with no spectators...<BR/>But it would be interesting to look into it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-69777316289147823132008-10-01T00:38:00.000-04:002008-10-01T00:38:00.000-04:00Rigil-Actually, you sparked my memory. If I recall...Rigil-Actually, you sparked my memory. If I recall there was some safety issue in Italy a couple years ago that forced the soccer league there to play a bunch of games without any spectators. At the time I thought it would be a great HFA experiment--no crowd, no jet lag, very little travel--provided the sample was large enough. I wonder if anyone has looked at those games.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-61470605915039011312008-09-30T22:46:00.000-04:002008-09-30T22:46:00.000-04:00@Rigil Have you posted any of your stuff online an...@Rigil <BR/><BR/>Have you posted any of your stuff online anywhere? I am a basketball guy myself, but I love reading about stats work done in other sports.Nankerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12256374128701491581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-87244395485765258152008-09-30T20:20:00.000-04:002008-09-30T20:20:00.000-04:00Soccer. I think I've heard of that. That's the spo...Soccer. I think I've heard of that. That's the sport that European men and American girls play, right?<BR/><BR/>Just kidding!Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-87654556258268865632008-09-30T14:22:00.000-04:002008-09-30T14:22:00.000-04:00This is very interesting. As a statistician myself...This is very interesting. As a statistician myself, and coming from Europe I did a similar study on Soccer, another game where HFA is supposed to be big. Given that in soccer you have 2 halves only, but you can record when a goal was scored, I divided each 45 mins half into 3 15 minutes thirds, ending up with 6 "Sixths" to analyze.<BR/>I am still working out the final details but early results seem to indicate that HFA is at its strongest during the 4th Sixth, that is the first 15 minutes of the second half...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-59481675353037130222008-09-29T11:17:00.000-04:002008-09-29T11:17:00.000-04:00A model that incorporates game states would help d...A model that incorporates game states would help disentagle the factors. I'm thinking primarily of situations where the home team has acquired a big lead early, and is content to sit on that lead through the rest of the game. A regression model like<BR/><BR/>% of pts scored by home team ~ home team lead + quarter<BR/><BR/>Other factors could be included on the right hand side. I know you've already thought of this, I'm just talking to myself out loud.Nankerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12256374128701491581noreply@blogger.com