tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post686657306486852936..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Saints Fake FG?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-41865525571812452512010-11-04T13:09:12.712-04:002010-11-04T13:09:12.712-04:00I'm not convinced Payton actually wanted to ru...I'm not convinced Payton actually wanted to run a play there; if he did, and if I recall correctly, then he should have had the pseudo-FG unit snap the ball as soon as they were set, rather than giving Pittsburgh the chance to realize something was up (aside from not having the K on the field). <br /><br />Trying to run a first-down play from that distance makes little sense for a normal coach and zero sense for an aggressive coach: the upside is negligible, even given the troubles NO has had with shorter FGs this season, and the downside is pretty significant. Running a touchdown play is a little understandable, but I don't see why they didn't just run the play, unless there was concern about not being set ... and if he wasn't sure they'd be set long enough to run the play, that might suggest he wouldn't have confidence in their ability to run two plays before trying a shorter FG.zlionsfanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02966540737106797756noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-81765125206487891832010-11-03T16:29:09.945-04:002010-11-03T16:29:09.945-04:00If you don't go for a TD you're asking Cha...If you don't go for a TD you're asking Chase Daniels and the field goal unit to complete some kind of out route or a quick completion followed by spiking the ball to stop the clock. Even then you have maybe 3-5 seconds on the clock from say the 8 yardline. Do you kick a field goal then or take a shot into the end zone with Brees?<br /><br />Overall I don't think you're gaining much there.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838293735141324662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-51685731896677543972010-11-03T15:21:41.884-04:002010-11-03T15:21:41.884-04:00However, I don't believe Brees was on the fiel...However, I don't believe Brees was on the field. I think it was Chase Daniels. Plus one of the WR was the kicker.<br /><br />I think the other Chris is saying that they could get the first down and then have one more play to get a TD.chris (different)noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-58092830270367645392010-11-03T11:21:03.565-04:002010-11-03T11:21:03.565-04:00While I have no numbers to back this up, I would i...While I have no numbers to back this up, I would imagine that the Saints chances of scoring the TD are higher if the Steelers FG defend defense is on the field compared to their regular defense. So the element of surprise likely works in Payton's favor as well and explains why he kicked the FG after the timeout.MattyPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09238596881583799736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-27236518112389680842010-11-03T04:05:14.851-04:002010-11-03T04:05:14.851-04:00Chris - I see your point but why would a team both...Chris - I see your point but why would a team bother? It's 4th and 3, if you're going to kick the field goal you might as well kick it now, rather than run a slant, get the first down, spike the ball and then kick the field goal. The fake FG had to be designed to go for a TD because otherwise it makes no sense.Ian Simcoxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01518825067469269377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-54336295408047752652010-11-02T22:11:20.180-04:002010-11-02T22:11:20.180-04:00I understand, but we're not talking about LSU ...I understand, but we're not talking about LSU here. It seems reasonable that some NFL teams could throw a slant and spike the ball within 12 seconds (especially, if they practiced this play the week before).Chrisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-29123658993289777212010-11-02T21:01:33.842-04:002010-11-02T21:01:33.842-04:00Chris-Right, but they needed the full 13 yards for...Chris-Right, but they needed the full 13 yards for the TD. For practical purposes they had 1 play to score from the 13.<br /><br />The probability of a 1st down but no TD is fairly negligible. That would require getting out of bounds. There's no way Payton calls a play that is anything but a pass into the EZ.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-16560999890139948392010-11-02T19:46:15.374-04:002010-11-02T19:46:15.374-04:00It wasn't 4th and 13, it was 4th and 3.
Th...It wasn't 4th and 13, it was 4th and 3. <br /><br />There is also a possibility that the Saints could have gotten a first down (but not a touchdown), spiked the ball, and kicked the field goal. The baseline for 4th and 3 is over 50%. <br /><br />Assume the chance of a touchdown after getting the first down is neglible, you should have considered:<br />2.7 = P(touchdown on one play)*7 + P(first down & field goal)*3Chrisnoreply@blogger.com