tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post7069907721530661264..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Roundup 11/27/10Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-70617371746361349072010-11-28T09:01:21.171-05:002010-11-28T09:01:21.171-05:00Good link on red zone efficiency Jim. Quick check ...Good link on red zone efficiency Jim. Quick check on it, I got red zone efficiency correlating with winning with an r of 0.04, which is pretty much as good as random as you can get - not that that'll stop commentators telling us all how important it is every week.Ian Simcoxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01518825067469269377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-42851152818113606142010-11-27T23:26:18.970-05:002010-11-27T23:26:18.970-05:00What are the most prominent "wrong football b...<em>What are the most prominent "wrong football beliefs?"</em><br /><br />Candidates: "Red zone efficiency" is a meaningful stat (<a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct" rel="nofollow">#1 and #2</a> are Detroit and Buffalo, a combined 4-17) ... Great coaches/teams win close games (Walsh's 49ers in 3-pt games, 41%; Lombardi's Packers, 50%) ... QBs (instead of teams) win championships. All variations on the greatly exaggerated myth of "clutch play".Jim Glassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-37845790420392098632010-11-27T22:28:32.408-05:002010-11-27T22:28:32.408-05:00What are the most prominent "wrong football b...<em>What are the most prominent "wrong football beliefs?" </em><br /><br />Candidates: "Red zone scoring efficiency" is a stat that means something. (<a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct" rel="nofollow">#1 and #2</a> are Buffalo and Detroit, a combined 4-17) ... Great team/coaches win close games (Walsh's 49ers in 3-pt games, 41%; Lombardi's Packers, 50%) ...QBs (instead of teams) win championships. All of which are variations on the greatly exaggerated myth of "clutch play".<br /><br />BTW, Thaler's #1 myth to be debunked is the one he himself cites as "true", that science long believed the world was flat. The ancient Greeks knew it was round, had measured its size accurately, and science knew that forever after. IIRC the ancient Egyptians had too, long before the Greeks. If people in Columbus's time believed the world was flat he could never have gotten a crew willing to risk sailing off the edge.Jim Glassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-40516365788588553752010-11-27T14:22:36.631-05:002010-11-27T14:22:36.631-05:00The Packers article got me thinking...It seems to ...The Packers article got me thinking...It seems to me that the reactive nature of defense makes it much easier to coach for defensive success rate than it would be to coach for defensive efficiency. Any one else agree or disagree?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-26680758273603757542010-11-27T14:12:11.893-05:002010-11-27T14:12:11.893-05:00Thank you Brain.
But in the Borat Household we ...Thank you Brain. <br /><br />But in the Borat Household we celebrate Festivus. This year the stars align tomorrow on November 28th, a day remembered in infamy. We will disclose the list of greivances this evening at our Festivus Eve Clam Bake and Pork Rind Crunch.Borathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05801713391906994668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-12311381914208319882010-11-27T13:13:37.351-05:002010-11-27T13:13:37.351-05:00Some good articles there. Really enjoyed the one a...Some good articles there. Really enjoyed the one about the Packers defensive coordinator and his success rate-lite system. It just strikes me as odd that they would choose to use such a simple system when they must have access to far more detailed data than the play-by-play descriptions we amateurs all have.<br /><br />I'm tempted to try a similar system for grading bowlers at my local cricket club next year now. If it's good enough for the pros...Ian Simcoxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01518825067469269377noreply@blogger.com