tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post7350912559246352585..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Wildcard Game AnalysisUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-77979252706760429362011-01-13T20:19:50.130-05:002011-01-13T20:19:50.130-05:00Sorry about messing up that link. :-(Sorry about messing up that link. :-(Jim Glassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-51915556309754233242011-01-13T20:19:03.107-05:002011-01-13T20:19:03.107-05:00Ian, I think you are on the money with this. It m...Ian, I think you are on the money with this. It makes perfect sense to build a team around a great QB like Peyton, spending the cap disproportionately on him and the few players needed for him to be most productive -- but the Colts may have pushed this to a fault and beyond.<br /><br /><em>The seven highest-paid Indianapolis Colts in 2009 will have a combined $81.3-million cap cost -- which leaves the bottom 46 players on the active roster, eight practice-squad players and, say, estimated injured-reserve players to split the remaining estimated $40.7 million of the cap.</em> [a href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/peter_king/09/01/mmqb/2.html#">Peter King]<br /><br />That's basically 2/3rds of the cap on seven players who, IIRC, were Peyton, five more O players and Freeny. It's no wonder they've always had D problems.<br /><br />I saw Polian say the Colts use the Tampa 2 defense because it is the cheapest, leaving more money for Peyton's O. On D they have to pay real money only for a pass rusher -- the zone DBs they can plug out as soon as they reach their free agency year and eligible for a raise, plugging in cheap draft pick replacements.<br /><br />"Defense wins championships" may be exaggerated, but geeze. It's one thing to build an O around a QB -- but how many QBs have had their team's defensive schemes catered to them?<br /><br />A big advantage the Pats had with Brady for a bunch of years was that as a sixth-round draft pick he was *cheap*, the greatest bargain in the NFL against the cap. When the Pats took him with that pick, Belichick and Brady both won the lottery.Jim Glassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-33127101841760712492011-01-13T02:55:17.635-05:002011-01-13T02:55:17.635-05:00Jonathon - I did wonder whether although Peyton...Jonathon - I did wonder whether although Peyton's salary is justified for him, does it affect the rest of his team because it takes up too much cap space.<br /><br />According to the USAToday.com stats, in 2009 Manning was, by $4.5m, the most expensive quarterback in the league. That $4.5m is more than the Colts spend on any LB, DT or RB, and is the equivalent of a Vilma, Fletcher or Merriman (at LB) or McFadden, W Parker or Ryan Grant (at RB).<br /><br />There is very little more I think Peyton can do on the field, but one option for him, if he wants to improve his chances of another ring, would be to take a pay cut and let the Colts bring a bit more depth and quality to their squad.Ian Simcoxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01518825067469269377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-84549077186567349862011-01-12T23:02:08.814-05:002011-01-12T23:02:08.814-05:00Every year I laugh my head off at talking heads wh...Every year I laugh my head off at talking heads who think that Manning doesn't show up in playoff games. I've heard people not even bother to argue that Manning was sub-par in the NYJ game, they have actually presupposed that he didn't bring the stuff. i.e. "Why do you think Manning couldn't bring his A-game for yet another playoff game, was he really that bad, or was the Jets defense that good?"<br /><br />Laughable. Horribly laughable. 8.7 YPA, 0 INT, one sack for six yards. Against THAT defense, with Revis as Reggie Wayne's personal shadow and a pedestrian 3.5 ypc out of his RBs. <br /><br />What else is he supposed to do? Play special teams so his team doesn't take penalties? Slice off his coach's hands so he doesn't call the dumbest timeout imaginable? Pay Bill Belichek out of pocket to be his personal assistant?Jonathannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-23758019502911132522011-01-11T20:51:03.111-05:002011-01-11T20:51:03.111-05:00It's not exactly what you're looking for, ...It's not exactly what you're looking for, but <a href="http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/01/drive-results.html" rel="nofollow">this might be helpful</a>.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-82685215337664225372011-01-11T20:46:36.837-05:002011-01-11T20:46:36.837-05:00Brian, do you have a chart where it shows the expe...Brian, do you have a chart where it shows the expected points scored on the drive from the yard line the drive starts (EX: 1.5 points/drive from the 20 yard line). I'm not talking about the one where it has negative values for drives starting beyond the 15 yard line. I just want to know the total points scored from drives at that yard line/possessions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-53005126035600934972011-01-10T21:03:52.727-05:002011-01-10T21:03:52.727-05:00Here is where I did the conversion from pt spread ...Here is where I did the conversion from pt spread to win probability:<br /><a href="http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/03/office-pool-3.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/03/office-pool-3.html</a>Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-55322127966484825432011-01-10T20:51:35.907-05:002011-01-10T20:51:35.907-05:00Thanks, Buzz. I'm wondering if after the game...Thanks, Buzz. I'm wondering if after the game Peyton gave Smith a consoling pat on the head, "That's OK kid, we learn from experience", or...<br /><br />This is the fourth time in the playoffs that Peyton's played better than the average winning playoff QB (by AYA) and been eliminated. Over the last 15 years no other QB has lost more than one of these.Jim Glassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-31431935518741790392011-01-10T20:45:10.055-05:002011-01-10T20:45:10.055-05:00Brian,
Can you explain how you converted Win Prob...Brian,<br /><br />Can you explain how you converted Win Probability into a point spread (as you did with NO-SEA in your post)?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05635406513974788060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-6856933514573648222011-01-10T17:28:28.588-05:002011-01-10T17:28:28.588-05:00Jim,
Just using the WP calculator I come up with ...Jim,<br /><br />Just using the WP calculator I come up with the following. If there was no penalty the Jets would have had a 46% chance to win at that point. After the penalty they had an 81% chance to win for a change of 35% due to the penalty. Bigger play than the one Brian mentions in the write-up to Edwards for a 30% increase.Buzznoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-3989009853168746732011-01-10T17:15:07.231-05:002011-01-10T17:15:07.231-05:00Am I crazy or did Andy Reid kick twice in managabl...Am I crazy or did Andy Reid kick twice in managable 4th down situations (both kicks in question were of course, missed). I was expecting to see an analysis of both of those missed kicks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-72622452764487791012011-01-10T17:02:01.131-05:002011-01-10T17:02:01.131-05:00Jim, Colts were down 14-13 at that point.
My bad...<em>Jim, Colts were down 14-13 at that point.</em> <br /><br />My bad -- but the same question.<br /><br />The Jets players are telling the papers that penalty saved the game for them.Jim Glassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-68425423977693376462011-01-10T15:58:04.813-05:002011-01-10T15:58:04.813-05:00Bigmouth,
I understand why statistics would be h...Bigmouth, <br /><br />I understand why statistics would be hard pressed in assessing a CB's worth as well as individual O-Lineman's pass protection value(what about individual LB coverage?). <br /><br />Inherently, the above player's job is defensive in nature, and it is hard prove that a player avoided something from happening, as it is proving a negative. Cutting out near-infinite possibilities(in the context of a football game, it is much less) is harder then proving a near 1:1 causal event like a WR catch. <br /><br />A system like UZR in baseball would be a start. However, there is different coverages. So you not only need to know the coverage, but also the result.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07251167413903018589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-12135103621940438192011-01-10T15:57:46.734-05:002011-01-10T15:57:46.734-05:00If every DB was assigned full time to each receive...If every DB was assigned full time to each receiver man-to-man, that might work, but that's not the case. <br /><br />If we knew which DBs were on the field for each play, which ones were in coverage, which coverage was called, and which DBs were targeted, we could do a lot statistically. Only the teams themselves have that info.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-91545548010861426682011-01-10T15:45:18.047-05:002011-01-10T15:45:18.047-05:00"How does EPA and WPA account for a player th..."How does EPA and WPA account for a player that is so dominant that that a HOF QB refuses to throws his way?"<br /><br />Look at the receiver's average EPA and WPA for the season, then compare it to his EPA/WPA for the game. That's the EPA/WPA that the good DB is responsible for.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-27452124884011057362011-01-10T15:43:52.021-05:002011-01-10T15:43:52.021-05:00Bigmouth,
As you yourself say, your claim is not...Bigmouth, <br /><br />As you yourself say, your claim is not falsifiable as well as being highly subjective. There is no difference in targeting lesser capable CB vs avoiding a CB. It's semantics at it's best. <br /><br />Additionally, there is a limit to your argument, as manning should be targeting lesser CB's ALL THE TIME, yet Wayne got 100+ receptions. Additionally, NBC tracked the times he was lined up 1-1, and his targets(1). <br /><br />There is a whole other matter to consider. I would think that the drop of from an above avg CB, to a below avg CB is not significant enough in pro sports, that a HOF QB would avoid "one" CB the entire game.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07251167413903018589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-39330921834230356212011-01-10T15:26:48.684-05:002011-01-10T15:26:48.684-05:00PS: Just to clarify, I'm not saying Revis is a...PS: Just to clarify, I'm not saying Revis is a league-average CB. Just that there might be factors other than his talent that influence any disproportionate playcalling against himBigmouthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04885083460724621786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-58347783382419837972011-01-10T15:23:10.481-05:002011-01-10T15:23:10.481-05:00Anonymous, yes, at least possibly. Let's say ...Anonymous, yes, at least possibly. Let's say you have a league-average CB and a CB who's well-below average. Wouldn't it still make sense to target the well-below average CB, at least until the other team shows it can stop you? Again, though, this is sheer conjecture. But since individual defensive-metrics are scarce, I think it's a possibility we have to consider.Bigmouthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04885083460724621786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-56541307718580360402011-01-10T14:59:52.785-05:002011-01-10T14:59:52.785-05:00Is there much of a difference between "stayin...Is there much of a difference between "staying away from Revis" and "targeting far less capable CBs"?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-91470239201803721592011-01-10T14:53:43.276-05:002011-01-10T14:53:43.276-05:00Ed, I just wanted to raise the possibility that te...Ed, I just wanted to raise the possibility that teams are NOT staying away from exceptional CBs like Revis so much as targeting far less capable CBs on the same team. I say this because I think the concept of a "shutdown" CB is something of a myth in today's NFL. The rules prohibiting contact after 5 yards are too restrictive, and the ubiquity of zone defenses means 1-1 situations are rare.<br /><br />Of course, this is sheer conjecture on my part. Only empirical research can answer the question.Bigmouthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04885083460724621786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-64431813510361042362011-01-10T14:46:52.683-05:002011-01-10T14:46:52.683-05:00Brian, I'll bet Bill Walsh would have agreed w...Brian, I'll bet Bill Walsh would have agreed with you. I believe he preached that 3rd and short is a great situation to try for a TD because it's the rare situation where you know what the coverage will be.Bigmouthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04885083460724621786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-6152883100543952542011-01-10T14:46:49.302-05:002011-01-10T14:46:49.302-05:00Jim, Colts were down 14-13 at that point.Jim, Colts were down 14-13 at that point.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-17629465762926201282011-01-10T13:38:59.266-05:002011-01-10T13:38:59.266-05:00Brian: The Colts are up on Jets 16-14, 3:10 left i...Brian: The Colts are up on Jets 16-14, 3:10 left in the game. The Jets have just gone three and apparently out. To quote the play by play...<br /><br /><em>Weatherford punts 46 yards to IND 29, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 15-B.White. PENALTY on IND-10-T.Smith, Running Into the Kicker, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 25 - No Play.</em><br /><br />At 3:02 the Jets get a first down on their 30 instead of the Colts having a first down on their 29. How much was that swing worth?Jim Glassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-32323756177607566942011-01-10T12:01:23.079-05:002011-01-10T12:01:23.079-05:00How about all those passes in 3rd-Down-and-short b...How about all those passes in 3rd-Down-and-short by Indy early in the game? I really think that they should have run on these plays. Your analysis supports running in these situations. The fact that they did not killed a number of drives and might have been the difference in the game.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-42732507732650919632011-01-10T11:13:10.294-05:002011-01-10T11:13:10.294-05:00They can't, right now. EPA or WPA as a concept...They can't, right now. EPA or WPA as a concept can do it, but using the NFL play-by-play as the record of what happened on the play is severely limiting. It's not the concepts of WPA or EPA, it's the data.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.com