tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post7406460181794363661..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Game Predictions Week 11Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-43510618016705997742007-11-19T22:49:00.000-05:002007-11-19T22:49:00.000-05:00Dear Mr. Burke,You went 13-2 straight up and9-5 AT...Dear Mr. Burke,<BR/><BR/>You went 13-2 straight up and<BR/><BR/>9-5 ATS<BR/><BR/>Very good.<BR/><BR/>Ps I left MNF out as it was a 50:50 call.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-88003909074244906202007-11-19T22:45:00.000-05:002007-11-19T22:45:00.000-05:00EXCELENT job.You even got the Lions right.Their FI...EXCELENT job.<BR/><BR/>You even got the Lions right.<BR/>Their FIRST loss at home.<BR/>Did decently ats as well.<BR/><BR/>I'm feeling some momentum :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-35940506096384112982007-11-17T22:20:00.000-05:002007-11-17T22:20:00.000-05:00Ok, I see. The home team is favored by the model i...Ok, I see. The home team is favored by the model in just over 60% of the games this year, including all past and future games. This would indicate one of two things. The stronger teams have had more home games so far this year, or the model is biased. But if I make a theoretical league-average team play itself, the home team is favored at exactly 0.575, so hopefully the model is correctly tuned.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-10841176443849329762007-11-17T19:31:00.000-05:002007-11-17T19:31:00.000-05:00Yeah, I was basically asking how many games were a...Yeah, I was basically asking how many games were actually won at home, and how many games you predicted to be won at home.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-50190117661308016302007-11-17T16:56:00.000-05:002007-11-17T16:56:00.000-05:0024frames-Well, I am working on an analysis of home...24frames-Well, I am working on an analysis of home field advantage. Maybe I don't understand your point, but over the past 5 years the home team wins 57.5% of the time.<BR/><BR/>Anon-DET enjoys home field advantage like other teams, but they're just not that good--perhaps a little above average. They could pull an upset Sunday, but their remaining schedule looks pretty tough. The Giants game is very important if the Lions want to compete for a wildcard.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-30213047500405556092007-11-16T22:24:00.000-05:002007-11-16T22:24:00.000-05:00Mr. Burke,Cleveland is on the road, but Det is hom...Mr. Burke,<BR/><BR/>Cleveland is on the road, but Det is home. They are both on long home winning streaks. Det has NOT lost at home even once this year. Definitely a Jekyl/Hide story which, if not acccounted for, will DEFINITELY screw with the model. lol!<BR/><BR/>I'm staying off the Det game for that reason...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-40455835095576970742007-11-14T21:03:00.000-05:002007-11-14T21:03:00.000-05:00I don't know if this can be used for anything, or ...I don't know if this can be used for anything, or if you have done something similar yourself, but maybe you can add together all the home percentages through these 2 seasons that you have predicted games, and then see how many games were actually won at home and then do the same for the away games.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com