tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post8293552109343290381..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): The Truth Is Tony Romo Isn't a ChokerUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-1866286485261221202014-01-17T11:16:55.062-05:002014-01-17T11:16:55.062-05:00Romo is NOT the problem. In fact he is the best p...Romo is NOT the problem. In fact he is the best player on the team and usually carries the team on his back. He is the reason they are ever in positions to win games. He's a baller with eyes in the back of his head... if we had a defense that could protect our lead, we would have a couple rings with Romo. I would take Romo over ever QB not named Brady or Brees or Peyton. Nobody has more heart than Romo; playing through injuries that most would go on IR on...Richard Reid Jrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02695876030375221766noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-51741604634795199522013-11-02T03:19:57.807-04:002013-11-02T03:19:57.807-04:00I have always been a Cowboys fan and always will b...I have always been a Cowboys fan and always will be. As the old saying goes, "People love to hate the Cowboys." They don't need a reason. They just do what everyone else is doing like helpless and mindless sheep. Is Romo the best QB? No. Is Romo the worst QB? No. Statistics show that he normally plays great games consistently, but people always remember that one bad play. People only do those things to him. If you say bad things about Brees, Brady, or the Mannings, fans will rage like 5 year olds. Does anyone remember the Saints-Falcons game last year where Brees threw 5 interceptions and 0 touchdowns? No, because "He just had a bad game" or "Everyone makes mistakes" or You're just hating on the Saints." If you are going to accuse one QB of botching a game but not another for doing an even worse job, then shame on you. The facts are that Romo is a great QB, and he makes mistakes. It just so happens that when he makes them, the team just kinda gives up. I agree with <br />@0d4bd760-32a8-11e3-a5e0-000f20980440 that Jerry Jones is a horrible GM. Great owner, but cannot run a football team right. And it goes into to so many other problems with the organization as a whole. I think what people want is another Troy Aikman or Roger Staubach. But statistically, Romo is the best Cowboys QB ever. But then again, what matters in the end is whether or not you make it to the big dance. Like @Doctorjorts said: You're a choker until you aren't. I wouldn't say a choker, but people are going to bash Romo until the Cowboys finally make it to the Superbowl. Until then, the bias and ignorance will not end. Sorry for the rant, but had to get that out there.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17054637260292553053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-11428175885717942642013-10-15T15:35:20.155-04:002013-10-15T15:35:20.155-04:00Statistics don't make a QB or any other player...Statistics don't make a QB or any other player in the NFL. A team is a team and looking at individuals doesn't really give you a fair or realistic view of that player. It's like the A student who can't write a decent paper or successfully play a game of Jeopardy. Sure, their grades show that their smart, but are they really?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-14406101808589973742013-10-13T09:55:39.135-04:002013-10-13T09:55:39.135-04:00and if you judge a QB because of what he did in th...and if you judge a QB because of what he did in the past especially one of his first years with Dallas (Seahawk Snap) then you are delusional Romo is a great QB, he has had a little bad luck in the past, but with some certain individuals Defense and Offense, mainly defense they need to step it up and not blow Romos lead all the time to where he has all the preeure to score last minute all the time, defense doesn't get pressure at the end cause ultimately it comes down to the offense to score the game winner when defense lets it get that close, so In reality the defense blows the game and its up to Romo and the Offense to carry the wjole team to the end and when you do that to a QB for 11 years shit is going to happen..... this year is different though..... Go Cowboys!!!!!<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15414423902771555681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-53789131019423272722013-10-11T22:07:38.452-04:002013-10-11T22:07:38.452-04:00Their problem is Jerry Jones playing GM. Their problem is Jerry Jones playing GM. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-65053510159889731712013-10-11T21:16:51.633-04:002013-10-11T21:16:51.633-04:00"Certainly interesting and sophisticated data..."Certainly interesting and sophisticated data, but as a lifelong Cowboys fan (since late 60's), I could have told you that Tony Romo isn't the Cowboys' problem."<br /><br />I could also tell you from watching every play in his career -- and most of the plays in every other QBs' career in that time -- that he is not the problem, too.<br /><br />But a lot of fans don't pay constant attention to every play, they just pay attention to the things they remember. Or they only see highlights and results, or listen to media memes, and buy in to how that fuels their perception. Which is poorly, btw. And when we tell them otherwise, it's just our word against theirs.<br /><br />That's why data is useful. Thanks a ton for this article, ANS.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-64083850899112312492013-10-11T20:56:58.605-04:002013-10-11T20:56:58.605-04:00@scottmaui - you're exactly right. After heari...@scottmaui - you're exactly right. After hearing all the talk about Romo, etc., after the game, I did what Sterling did and checked out PFR's Game Finder. I searched for late 4th quarter situations when the QB's team is down by a TD or less, passing plays only...I'm looking at the results thinking, "Why don't I remember Drew Brees or Eli Manning throwing all these game ending picks?" Must be the rings...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03108711283276399018noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-29948763274494267792013-10-11T18:13:14.140-04:002013-10-11T18:13:14.140-04:00Confirmation bias.
People notice and remember eve...Confirmation bias.<br /><br />People notice and remember events that reinforce their existing beliefs.<br /><br />That is what Romo is the victim of. <br /><br />The handful of games that people remember and point to are a very small sample size and probably have more to do with pure randomness than anything else, which plays a much larger role in the NFL than most fans recognize.scottmauinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-82704973494763483312013-10-11T17:31:28.883-04:002013-10-11T17:31:28.883-04:00The best example of America's Tony Romo Derang...The best example of America's Tony Romo Derangement Syndrome is Rodney Harrison claiming he had scouting reports dating back to when he played with the Chargers that said Tony Romo melts down late in games. Which was an interesting claim, considering Tony Romo was playing at Eastern Illinois when Harrison was last playing for the Chargers. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-92057515685965847302013-10-11T17:08:52.475-04:002013-10-11T17:08:52.475-04:00Idea:
can we simply control EPA for how competiti...Idea:<br /><br />can we simply control EPA for how competitive the game is?<br /><br />distance from 0.5 WPA? That way, if a player has a large EPA play when the game is at 50% win probability, he will get full credit for the EPA. if WPA is at 0 or 1, he gets zero credit. if its at 75% or 25%, he gets half credit. <br /><br />Perhaps, an average of WPA before and WPA after the play?<br /><br />THIS SHOULD WORKNick Bradleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07772794102967712253noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-72667228952301149422013-10-11T15:05:45.426-04:002013-10-11T15:05:45.426-04:00Certainly interesting and sophisticated data, but ...Certainly interesting and sophisticated data, but as a lifelong Cowboys fan (since late 60's), I could have told you that Tony Romo isn't the Cowboys' problem. They have been on a roller coaster since Jimmy Johnson left, mostly down, but just simply not championship caliber. There are multiple reasons, but simply put, we suffer from the Good Twin/Evil Twin syndrome that is Jerry Jones/Owner, and Jerry Jones/G.M. There is really is no one I'd rather have as an owner than JJ, but there is no one worse than G.M. Jones. As many have noted, Jerry would have fired himself many times over for the job he's done as GM, but to me, it goes deeper than that. He has allowed a culture of "mediocrity is okay" to permeate the atmosphere, and until he realizes the smell is coming from nowhere else but him, the Cowboys will remain mired in that netherworld of NFL hell: Not good enough to make it to the Big Show, not bad enough to rebuild through the draft. It's so predictable, it (almost) makes me want to start playing golf again on Sundays, just to lower my frustration level.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-15447414897680617962013-10-11T15:01:33.368-04:002013-10-11T15:01:33.368-04:00Great article. I had read somewhere that Romo had...Great article. I had read somewhere that Romo had the 3rd most INTs that resulted in at least a 20% decline in WPA from that single play. Is that true and might it be a stat that would quantify the perception that Romo has made mistakes that directly costs games more so than other QBs? <br /><br />I think Romo has been amazing, but this statistic gave me some pause. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-55398201961056577632013-10-11T14:55:17.263-04:002013-10-11T14:55:17.263-04:00It also doesn't help Romo that he just plays o...It also doesn't help Romo that he just plays on a team with an inordinate amount of games in primetime matchups with gigantic viewing audiences, so that every generic Week 7 non-division matchup in which he throws an interception is declared a "big game" simply because it's on Sunday Night announced by Al Michaels rather than the 11 am Sunday kickoff announced by Kevin Harlan and Solomon WilcotsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-77441602376691347402013-10-11T14:39:56.961-04:002013-10-11T14:39:56.961-04:00The notion that Peyton is unclutch in the playoffs...The notion that Peyton is unclutch in the playoffs is also wildly false, even more so than Romo. Barnwell went on a rant about this last year, and the stats say that Manning is actually exceeds Brady in the playoffs in pretty much everything besides wins. Also foolish to make sweeping judgments of player ability based on total team results.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11854866695132903933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-1287027835795002832013-10-11T13:23:45.918-04:002013-10-11T13:23:45.918-04:00Where can I find play-by-play WPA data?Where can I find play-by-play WPA data?Nick Bradleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07772794102967712253noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-50375370950775211892013-10-11T10:23:50.460-04:002013-10-11T10:23:50.460-04:00You're a choker until you aren't.
Anyone ...You're a choker until you aren't.<br /><br />Anyone remember what they used to say about Lebron James?Doctorjortshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01708231582042218526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-91176353714852587592013-10-11T10:08:56.819-04:002013-10-11T10:08:56.819-04:00Using Peyton Manning as a standard is not necessar...Using Peyton Manning as a standard is not necessarily helpful since the rap on P. Manning is that he also doesn't play well in the most critical games (i.e. the playoffs).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-54382121597928300462013-10-11T09:20:29.174-04:002013-10-11T09:20:29.174-04:00Romo definitely gets a bad rap. Reminds me of the ...Romo definitely gets a bad rap. Reminds me of the Jerry character from Parks & Rec. Here are a couple ways to visualize DAL's woes.<br /><br />1- <a href="http://wp.advancednflstats.com/yearstatvisualization.php" rel="nofollow">Here is the Def and Off Team EPA chart for DAL</a>. Notice in the Romo era, DAL is always in the right-bottom quadrant, meaning good offense, poor defense.<br /><br />2-<a href="http://wp.advancednflstats.comyearstatvisualization.php" rel="nofollow">And here is the QB career viz Sterling included above</a>. Compare Romo to anyone on the career WPA page or the Nth Best Season page.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-21376849428570933422013-10-11T09:11:09.602-04:002013-10-11T09:11:09.602-04:00It may be an oversimplification, but I really beli...It may be an oversimplification, but I really believe that most of Romo's public (mis)perception can be traced back to that single botched snap against Seattle. Up to that point, I think the public verdict on Romo was rather neutral. But after that snap, "analysts" and everyday fans have seized upon every one of his missteps, no matter how many brilliant plays they are couched in.bytebodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15989876051555196561noreply@blogger.com