tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post831575615983658363..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Win Values for the NFLUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-72606187265734732062014-08-01T15:43:04.244-04:002014-08-01T15:43:04.244-04:00This analysis is flawed. It assumes that like ba...This analysis is flawed. It assumes that like baseball, the team performance is the sum of the player performances.<br /><br />The relationships are highly non-linear. A great QB might make his O-line look good by getting rid of the ball fast, but without some receiving talent it might not matter that much (Peyton). An amazing offensive line might make a decent QB look fantastic (Green, Chiefs of yesterear).<br /><br />A QB upgrade might be worth 8 wins in one situation, and only 3 or 4 in another. An O-line filled with pro bowlers might be worth 4 wins in one situation, and only 1 or 2 in another.<br /><br />Due to all of this, win values of this sort are going to be pretty much useless in the NFL. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-20848213239415577622014-08-01T15:12:38.788-04:002014-08-01T15:12:38.788-04:00@Phil Welcome to the wonderful world of the NFL s...@Phil Welcome to the wonderful world of the NFL salary cap!Willnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-24573578762791684922014-07-30T09:50:02.798-04:002014-07-30T09:50:02.798-04:00Daniel,
The Indianapolis Colts probably come pret...Daniel,<br /><br />The Indianapolis Colts probably come pretty close to a test case.Jeremy Billonesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-7724684618298942672014-07-24T09:59:37.312-04:002014-07-24T09:59:37.312-04:00Interesting analysis, but....
Given:
There is a...Interesting analysis, but....<br /><br />Given: <br /><br />There is a minimum spend on salaries above 53*500 set by the collective bargaining agreement. <br /><br />Roughly 50% of the outcome of a game is luck. (I read that somewhere on the internet...)<br /><br />Coaching (game theory) matters. (I also read that somewhere on the internet...)<br /><br /><br /> Then the actual replacement level wins could easily be above 1. A well coached, minimum salary/talent level roster could easily expect to win 3 , 4 or even 5 games at a minimum with better than average luck.JMMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-76741310359675177442014-07-22T18:55:43.428-04:002014-07-22T18:55:43.428-04:00I think that a replacement-level team would be sig...I think that a replacement-level team would be significantly WORSE than 0 wins, in the sense that you could add significant talent to them and still get a team you'd expect to win 0 games.<br /><br />If a team with a replacement-level QB but otherwise average would win 4 games, then this average QB would be 4 WAR. But if a replacement team is 0 wins, then adding this QB to the replacement team should give a 4-win team. But I can't imagine a team which is replacement-level in everything except QB getting 4 wins. <br /><br />Not entirely sure what the answer is. One possibility is to call the replacement team "-N wins", for some N. Then any team with <0 wins would be expected to get 0 wins. Or, some sort of nonlinear equation. (It's obviously non-linear at some point, even an all-star team can't have more than 16 wins in a season)Daniel Tilkinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14542151977307160769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-53768531200925768932014-07-21T16:43:53.312-04:002014-07-21T16:43:53.312-04:00If you ever want to hear someone who does not unde...If you ever want to hear someone who does not understand replacement level, listen to Bob Ryan rant about WAR.Davenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-52351194947678899612014-07-21T16:08:06.857-04:002014-07-21T16:08:06.857-04:00So, how does it work? If you figure expected sala...So, how does it work? If you figure expected salary wins and compare to real wins (or, even better, Vegas pre-season estimates), how does it do?<br /><br />Oh, wait ... it looks like they all spent about the same. Never mind.Phil Birnbaumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03800617749001032996noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-44802291998182165182014-07-21T14:24:21.735-04:002014-07-21T14:24:21.735-04:00This proves my theory that the top QBs are severel...This proves my theory that the top QBs are severely underpaid. Rodgers, Manning, Brees, and possibly Brady would make 40+ million in a free market. Thanks for the article.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-20569167113180246722014-07-21T11:49:35.647-04:002014-07-21T11:49:35.647-04:00first - i love your blog. it's a wonderful mix...first - i love your blog. it's a wonderful mix of nerdery and sports.<br /><br />second - ie've been considering a lot of similar ideas because of a calcutta-style auction league for nfl teams that we do. we auction off each team before the season. 50% of the pot is awarded to the 256 regular season wins, the other 50% is paid for making and winning playoffs games, increasing progressively toward the super bowl So we ponder the questions "how many games will this team win?" and "will they potentially make the playoffs?" and then create a formula to determine our spending line. The real trick, however, is trying to figure out what the total pot will be and change your projections accordingly (there are a lot of factors at play: auction order of teams, people waiting to spend til late, homerism, etc.) it's pretty fun!<br /><br />Chadwick C. DeVosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01343732236905361095noreply@blogger.com