tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post8681083748378438954..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): How Much Is Joe Flacco Worth?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-34814372169806850932013-02-05T10:04:36.439-05:002013-02-05T10:04:36.439-05:00Wonder what his worth is now?Wonder what his worth is now?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09593935894184463588noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-17240175352183369452012-12-27T12:14:10.789-05:002012-12-27T12:14:10.789-05:00It may be a liquid market, but any QB that you buy...It may be a liquid market, but any QB that you buy in FA is going to ask for that kind of money, or any QB that you acquire via trade is going to need that kind of money for an extension, and they won't know the system as well as Joe. It also sends out a bad message to the team when you lose a young, franchise QB. Voice of Reasonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-42568538454342189242012-12-25T13:44:49.202-05:002012-12-25T13:44:49.202-05:00I think he saved himself one more week with the Gi...I think he saved himself one more week with the Giants game. If they go out lame duck in this last game and the wildcard game, Flake-o could be playing elsewhere in 2013. Hard to see him not turning up in Philadelphia, Buffalo, KC or somethingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-2438626320684650562012-12-24T16:05:01.327-05:002012-12-24T16:05:01.327-05:00EPA and WPA are both valid predictors of QB value,...EPA and WPA are both valid predictors of QB value, or at least more valid than anything else. Occasionally two predictors disagree on an outcome; that doesn't mean they are invalid predictors.<br /><br />Intelligence (predictor 1) and work ethic (predictor 2) are both valid predictors of achievement. If someone is high on Intelligence and low on Work Ethic, does this make them invalid predictors of achievement for that person? They both contribute relevant information.<br /><br />And sorry for the earlier aggressive response, I misunderstood your post as questioning the validity of WPA and EPA as predictors of 'value' in general.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07880455074429334921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-36807327066730423222012-12-24T12:29:13.703-05:002012-12-24T12:29:13.703-05:00"There are so many things wrong with this que..."There are so many things wrong with this question it's hard to know where to start."<br /><br />Sorry to offend you David. Thanks for your detailed response, but it didn't point out where the question "was wrong", if in fact a question can be wrong.<br /><br />Bottom line is that the story reports that Flacco is worth either 8 mill/yr or 15 mill/yr. I guess the conclusion is that salary cannot be predicted via EPA and WPA, which is what you are stating in your response.<br /><br />However, the Ravens most certainly will derive a value for Flacco. So, if not via EPA and WPA, what measures are used? QB rating, total yards, TDs, INTS?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-40867485303492614662012-12-24T11:57:35.347-05:002012-12-24T11:57:35.347-05:00All of this and Tebow doesn't even see the fie...All of this and Tebow doesn't even see the field? At least McElroy looks like the reincarnation of Chad Pennington, original rotator cuffs.Jeff Christyhttp://ewenchia.skyeyegroup.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-58598576930092030552012-12-24T02:59:24.988-05:002012-12-24T02:59:24.988-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07880455074429334921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-70861280767815092922012-12-23T23:50:42.769-05:002012-12-23T23:50:42.769-05:00if the two measures of a qb's "value"...if the two measures of a qb's "value" give a result that is off by a factor of two, shouldn't the intelligent conclusion be that one (or both) of the measures is not a good representation of the "value" of a quarterback?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-51902341957301500602012-12-23T14:46:21.866-05:002012-12-23T14:46:21.866-05:00Why on earth not? A player is worth whatever the o...Why on earth not? A player is worth whatever the owner pays for, and the owner makes a lot of money as a result of their efforts. The fans are more than willing to pay full ticket price and buy jerseys and NfL gear at the designated price, which pay for the players salery. The only thing absurd would be expecting him to sacrifice that, earning his owner millions, and work for free.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-34195320816402016992012-12-22T13:55:07.794-05:002012-12-22T13:55:07.794-05:00I've always wondered just how many EPA one WPA...I've always wondered just how many EPA one WPA is worth, and if there is a correlation. I plugged every set of EPA and WPA from this and last year into a Excel document, and added a line (I realise it's not too accurate, but stay with me). It turns out that 1 EPA is worth 0,0268 WPA, or 0,5 WPA (taking a game from tied to victory) is worth 17,38 EPA. By that messure, Flacco has 0,89876 WPA to much this year, 0,9166 too much last year. The player with most WPA too much, WPA added over expected, is Romo this year with 1,4 WPA extra. The one with the least is Rivers, also this year.<br /><br />Considering that many remembers the high leverage situations more than the rest of the game combined, and with 2 clutch season, in a row, I would say that Flacco will be overpaid. I would say that 9-10 millions is about fair, considering that a, at that point, maybe-maybe not crippeled Peyton Manning got 18 this yearMartinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01751939331151507964noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-29187581644711793462012-12-22T12:57:42.827-05:002012-12-22T12:57:42.827-05:00@Eric: Alex Smith has never produced 70 EPA in a s...@Eric: Alex Smith has never produced 70 EPA in a single season, let alone averaged it over several. He was on pace for slightly less than that this season. Can you really compare him to Flacco?<br /><br />I'm genuinely curious to see what the market demand will be for Smith. His traditional box score stats are certainly gaudy. But measures like WPA and EPA consistently suggest he's less efficient than traditional metrics indicate.<br /><br />I think the rest of the NFL is still skeptical, too, which is partly why he didn't get a single contract offer (not even from MIA) from anyone but the Niners. And getting benched for Kap certainly won't quiet teams' concerns.bigmouthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00336001437381184261noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-84125074941879892552012-12-22T09:20:18.871-05:002012-12-22T09:20:18.871-05:00Can you do a similar analysis for Tony Romo please...Can you do a similar analysis for Tony Romo please? He will be up for an extension in the off season. <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-72801739059175150292012-12-21T23:42:16.546-05:002012-12-21T23:42:16.546-05:00One thing is for sure: He isn´t "worth" ...One thing is for sure: He isn´t "worth" 8+ Mio. USD or whatever decadent sums owners are willing to throw after those kind of players.<br />And even if we calculate in absurd NFL terms: As long as starting QBS just win approx. 1 more game (over a 16-game-season) than their NFL-minimum-salary-paid backups, none of the so called "superstars" is worth that kind of money. It´s just crazy...<br /><br />Karl, GermanyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-48188415257590536812012-12-21T22:38:08.273-05:002012-12-21T22:38:08.273-05:00If he's going to garner $11MM a year, Baltimor...If he's going to garner $11MM a year, Baltimore should at least inquire about Alex Smith who's making $8MM and locked up for 2 more seasons, and is around the same age. that would give Baltimore a bit more flexibility with the cap and a QB who can at least complete a high percentage of passes with few mental mistakes.Eric Petersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11806893871864265281noreply@blogger.com