tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post9022880307801685771..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Game Probabilities - Week 10Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-38508766924331121662013-11-08T16:50:08.227-05:002013-11-08T16:50:08.227-05:00To answer the question above about 60 vs 45 yds fo...To answer the question above about 60 vs 45 yds for an int. The 60 yds is for an int on 1st down. Because EP values are always highest on 1st down, the impact of a turnover is largest if it occurs on 1st down. An easy way to think about it is that a turnover on 4th down isn't so painful. It doesn't really cost you possession, just field position.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-86834009698528610682013-11-07T19:41:51.629-05:002013-11-07T19:41:51.629-05:00With the PIT-BUF game, Pittsburgh's lack of tu...With the PIT-BUF game, Pittsburgh's lack of turnovers says that Buffalo will win.Stat Guynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-23492976155928119952013-11-07T19:32:23.025-05:002013-11-07T19:32:23.025-05:00@ Brian Burke
"But I can't find the post...@ Brian Burke<br /><br />"But I can't find the post I did about YPA and int rate drop-off when going to a backup QB. 1.5 YPA or so? Still looking."<br /><br />1.5 YPA?? No way ever. I am just into a study of back up vs starting QBs since 1980. I have the AFC finished. True starting QBs have a .524 winning Pct... The YPA difference i canĀ“t tell, since I did it another way: I looked at every true starter vs back-ups on the same team (with at least 100 Atts and one game started). Around 52% of starters had a higher YPA at the end of season, 48% of the (qualified) backups had a higher YPA at seasons end. After enough 1st team reps, game film, and playing time, the difference between the starter and backup diminishes more and more.<br />The talent level is amazingly thin at the NFL. Starters get valued wayyy too much. But I said this anyway before I started the study.<br /><br />Karl, GermanyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-19084550218224597582013-11-07T17:19:42.812-05:002013-11-07T17:19:42.812-05:00anyone at ANS*anyone at ANS*Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-82652654520356899432013-11-07T17:18:39.322-05:002013-11-07T17:18:39.322-05:00Brian (or anyone at ANF) - random question. You ha...Brian (or anyone at ANF) - random question. You had an article back in 2009 about adjusting adjusted yards per attempt where you said the modern expected points for an interception makes more sense at 60 than at the classic 45. <br /><br />http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/08/adjusting-adjusted-yards-per-attempt.html<br /><br />In the glossary however, you still have the definition of ANYPA as 45*interception. Just wondering what you're actually using in the model these days. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-83687271379655420382013-11-07T15:51:20.150-05:002013-11-07T15:51:20.150-05:00Wouldn't these game probabilities be a better ...Wouldn't these game probabilities be a better starting point for the Game Win Probability graphs rather than 50/50?<br /><br />Currently the Game Win Probablity graph don't capture the difference that an underdog team needs to make up going into the game.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15298719957361903936noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-3606438322642496132013-11-07T13:04:32.285-05:002013-11-07T13:04:32.285-05:00I also remember an article about replacing Matt Sc...I also remember an article about replacing Matt Schaub with TJ Yates done a year or two ago.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-44488655282168911432013-11-07T13:00:52.659-05:002013-11-07T13:00:52.659-05:00Searching 'Kitna' I think I found what you...Searching 'Kitna' I think I found what you are referring to:<br /><br />http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/10/washington-post-can-one-player-single.html (with a fun debate of the topic in the comments)<br /><br />http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/10/nyt-game-probabilities-week-8.html (looks like a change from 83% to 63% for the first Romo to Kitna game)<br /><br />Thanks!Wezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03086810079098123412noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-4850812773070767412013-11-07T12:59:13.951-05:002013-11-07T12:59:13.951-05:00Also-Sincerely apologize for the slight to the 200...Also-Sincerely apologize for the slight to the 2005 Bengals. I did fact- check, but PFR has PIT on top of the division in '05:<br />http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2005/<br />I assumed b/c PIT was listed first they won the tie break.<br /><br />Also here is the 3-part series Doug did:<br />http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?s=starting+qb+worth<br /><br />But I can't find the post I did about YPA and int rate drop-off when going to a backup QB. 1.5 YPA or so? Still looking.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-4246890001463666332013-11-07T12:38:51.408-05:002013-11-07T12:38:51.408-05:00I did a full analysis of that a couple years back....I did a full analysis of that a couple years back. I think when Kitna took over for Romo. PFR did some stuff before me on it too. I wish I could find the article. In GB's case I'd guess it's close to a difference of 15%.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-32500866025441090892013-11-07T12:29:57.863-05:002013-11-07T12:29:57.863-05:00How many percentage points do you think Aaron Rodg...How many percentage points do you think Aaron Rodgers vs. Seneca Wallace is worth?Wezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03086810079098123412noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-90580320667832323042013-11-07T12:29:28.308-05:002013-11-07T12:29:28.308-05:00(Otherwise I liked the analysis.) :)(Otherwise I liked the analysis.) :)Natehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07572444090666181106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-25716333856396919102013-11-07T12:26:31.446-05:002013-11-07T12:26:31.446-05:00Brian, the Bengals are visiting the Ravens. Your w...Brian, the Bengals are visiting the Ravens. Your write-up says the opposite.Natehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07572444090666181106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-2081750121753043212013-11-07T08:52:07.495-05:002013-11-07T08:52:07.495-05:00CIN won the division in 2005 too. Steelers beat t...CIN won the division in 2005 too. Steelers beat them in the playoffs and won the SB, but the division was won by CIN. David Kravitzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04327956475721102278noreply@blogger.com