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How Much did the Reversed Penalty Affect the Lions-Cowboys Game?

The Lions led the Cowboys 20-17 with 8:25 left to play in the 4th quarter. On 3rd and 1 from the DAL 46, QB Matthew Stafford threw incomplete to WR Brandon Pettigrew. The officials threw a flag and announced a pass interference penalty on DAL, which would have given DET a 1st and 10 at the DAL 30. But the officials picked up the flag and never enforced the penalty, leaving DET with a 4th and 1.

This was a controversial call by the officials, to say the least. So the question is, how big was this call on the outcome of the game? The Cowboys went on to win, but that doesn't mean the call caused DET to lose with certainty. Either outcome was still possible after the call. We need to think of things probabilistically. Let's break down the effect of the official's call using the new Win Probability Model.

Detroit Delays, Then Punts

Immediately following the huge reversed penalty, the Detroit Lions were faced with a 4th-and-1 on the Dallas 46, up 20-17 with 8:25 left in the game. The Lions decided to take the delay of game penalty, and then punt - which ended up as just a 10-yard punt. Obviously, the Lions did not anticipate such a bad punt, and we cannot judge the decision based on the outcome, but was punting the ball up three the best decision?

Podcast Episode 40 - J.I. Halsell

Jimmy “J.I.” Halsell, former Redskins salary cap analyst and director of analytics and contract advisor at Priority Sports and Entertainment, is on to discuss coaching changes and salary cap strategy. J.I. describes his work in the Redskins front office, and shares some of the data and resources teams use to make major front office decisions. He explains how during his time at Priority Sports, he used different methods to build relationships and find added leverage for his NFL clients. At the end of the show, he and Dave take a look at the newly vacated head coaching positions and brainstorm…

2014 Final Team Efficiency Rankings

For the final team efficiency rankings of 2014, I thought it might be instructive to break down some of the process that goes into making the sausage. AFA uses a different secret sauce than other analytics rankings sites, and if you're interested in the math behind the process, Brian has posted a detailed example of how this model spews it outs rankings here and here.

While I won't be doing the same computational legwork, there are elements within the model that reveal some general trends about the types of teams that AFA sees favorably (or unfavorably). You don't have to agree with the final…

Best of 2014

I promise this is not filler content, an excuse to have a post on an otherwise slow holiday week. This is the sixth year I've done a best of post, and each one does a good job highlighting the progress made by the site. The previous best of posts can be found in the Required Reading module at the Archive. If you're a new reader, then these will help you catch up.

2014 was undoubtedly a year of change around here. 2014 brought a name and address change and the site was rebuilt on a completely new platform. It has a new look with far fewer ads, and it has a new more professionally-oriented…

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How Much did the Reversed Penalty Affect the Lions-Cowboys Game?

Detroit Delays, Then Punts

Podcast Episode 40 - J.I. Halsell

2014 Final Team Efficiency Rankings

Best of 2014

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