Roster Construction Using Optimization Part 2 (Backups)

We left off last time with Indiana Jones trying to decide among dozens of items of treasure to stuff in his knapsack. His knapsack could only hold so much weight, and he had to decide which combination of items maximized the total value of loot without busting his sack's seams. It's a complicated problem already, but in our salary cap analogy, it got even more complicated. We required exactly 11 players, with certain numbers of players at the various positions. This would be like Marcus (Indy's dean at the University) requiring Indy to take exactly one gold idol, 2 ruby jewels, 2 emerald…

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The Value of Each Draft Pick: A Re-Examination of Massey-Thaler Surplus Value under the New CBA

That's the question that Cade Massey and Richard Thaler answered in 2005 in their landmark paper The Loser's Curse: Decision-Making & Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft. Their research findings demonstrated how the very top picks in the draft were overvalued relative to picks in the bottom of the first and top of the second round. Because the salaries of the very top picks climbed so high, the marginal surplus value of picks further down the draft board exceeded that of the picks at the top of the first round. The paper revealed numerous other lessons for team GMs, the most important may…

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Draft Model Upgrade: Player Position and Team Need

I've made a major improvement to how the Bayesian draft model works, and it's now running live on the site. Previously, the model only indirectly accounted for position and team need through the expert mock draft inputs. This resulted in a nice continuous probability curve for each prospect across possible pick numbers. It makes for a cool looking chart, but it leaves out useful information.

Now the model looks at the team needs for the team (currently) holding each pick number, and if the prospect in question matches one of those needs his probability of being selected at that pick is boosted.…

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Special Offer: The Buffalo Bills Visa Card

In partnership with the Buffalo Bills, AFA is pleased to announce this once in a lifetime offer. For a limited time, you can now sign up for the Bills Visa card with no spending limit, and a special introductory interest rate of just 486%! That's right, the Bills believe this is a fair exchange of present and future value. Get $1 of value this year, and pay $4.86 next year. What's not to like?

How do I know the Bills believe this is a fair interest rate? Because this is the implicit discount rate they paid when they traded with the Browns last year for the pick that landed WR Sammy Watkins. The…

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