Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down.This week I also lead-in with my take on a pet peeve with many ranking systems.
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down.This week I also lead-in with my take on a pet peeve with many ranking systems.
I don't care, I'm still picking KC in my weekly picks league. I rode them last week and it worked out!
ReplyDeleteAlso, does your system take into account that NE/TB is essentially a neutral-site game? Not that I'm tempted to pick TB, mind you...
Forgot about the London game. That would be more like .88/.12 in favor of NE due to the neutral site. Not that it matters very much.
ReplyDeleteHi Brian,
ReplyDeleteI was somewhat put off by your comments about the Den @ SD game. You really made yourself sound like a journalist there - results oriented nonsense :)
I hope you know what I mean!
Otherwise much <3
Yeah Brian,
ReplyDeleteI hope you would clarify your comments about Denver @ SD because it doesn't make sense to me. Your quote specifically
"Except for some generally (unrepeatable special teams plays, it's likely the Charger would have won"
How? Take both team special teams' scores out of the total score, Denver still won 20-16.
Win Chance GAME Win Chance
ReplyDelete0.84 Green Bay at Cleveland 0.16
0.81 San Diego at Kansas City 0.19
0.95 Indianapolis at St. Louis 0.05
0.23 Minnesota at Pittsburgh 0.77
0.86 New England at Tampa Bay (in London) 0.14
0.31 San Francisco at Houston 0.69
0.56 Buffalo at Carolina 0.44
0.63 Jets at Oakland 0.37
0.31 Atlanta at Dallas 0.69
0.47 Chicago at Cincinnati 0.53
0.86 New Orleans at Miami 0.14
0.22 Arizona at Giants 0.78
0.64 Philadelphia at Washington 0.36
Brian explained how his predictions work in this post.
HERE GOES, I WENT 63.8% IN NCAA YESTERDAY.
ReplyDeleteKC +5 1/2
Colts -14 1/2
Packers -9
Vikings +6
PATS -15 1/2
HOUSTON -3
Raiders +6
Bills +7
Bears PICK 'EM
Saints -6 1/2
ATLANTA +4 1/2
ARIZONA +7
Eagles -7
BEST OF LUCK TO YA!!!
JMED2 in GA
what exactly are you doing to get your predictions jmed?
ReplyDeleteKC +5 1/2.......L
ReplyDeleteColts -14 1/2...W
Packers -9......W
Vikings +6......L
PATS -15 1/2....W
HOUSTON -3......PUSH
Raiders +6......L
Bills +7........W
Bears PICK 'EM,,L
Saints -6 1/2...W
ATLANTA +4 1/2..L
ARIZONA +7......W
Eagles -7.......?
6-5-1,,,ONE TO PLAY,
That was AWFUL!!! I'll stick to my Collge!
JMED2 in GA
"What exactly are you doing to get your predictions jmed?"
ReplyDeleteI use computer models to disect the Outright chance of a Team Victory, then the Money Line odds and payout which then leads to spread valuations.
I'm going to attempt to beat the LOWDOWN gamblers this week in Vegas and show you my 12 best plays for this weeks NCAA College games:
DUKE +7
N. ILLONOIS -10
KENT +1
SMU +17
UTEP -6 1/2
AIR FARCE -3 1/2
IDAHO -3 1/2
FRESNO ST. -15 1/2
SAN DIEGO ST -17
WYOMING +16 1/2
OREGON +3 1/2
M. TENN ST +1 1/2
GOOD LUCK TO YA!!!
JMED2
jmed, do you have other predictions? what is the reason you are narrowing it down to 12 'best' predictions?
ReplyDeleteOREGON STATE -9 1/2
ReplyDeleteCINCINATI -17
GEORGIA +16
NORTH TEXAS -10 1/2
OLE MISS -3 1/2
SC +5
JMED2 in GA
11-1 straight-up is awful?
ReplyDeleteNo, my picks against the Spreads in the PROs was downright AWFUL!!! Brian's system for straight winners looks like a great system. I've posted that before and said I was definately inpressed.
ReplyDeleteJMED2 in GA
JMed will are you going to give all the picks like the last couple weeks?
ReplyDeletePlease
Thanks
Sure, no prob. I figured I'd just get "the 12 best" picks out before Vegas changed the lines thiw week.
ReplyDeleteJMED2 in GA
PS: 63.8% right last week, not too shabby and the Best was 9-3.
DUKE +7
ReplyDeleteN. ILLONOIS -10
KENT +1
SMU +17
UTEP -6 1/2
AIR FARCE -3 1/2
IDAHO -3 1/2
FRESNO ST. -15 1/2
SAN DIEGO ST -17
WYOMING +16 1/2
OREGON +3 1/2
M. TENN ST +1 1/2
OHIO -7 1/2
TOLEDO -5
MISS ST +3 1/2
TEXAS TECH -7
HOUSTON -6 1/2
MICHIGAN ST -5
OREGON STATE -9 1/2
CINCINATI -17
GEORGIA +16
NORTH TEXAS -10 1/2
OLE MISS -3 1/2
SC +5
THAT'S 24 PICKS SO FAR.
JMED2 in GA
ADDING 5 MORE TO MAKE IT AN ODD NUMBER:
ReplyDeleteFLORIDA ST. -7 1/2
MIAMI-FLA -7
IOWA ST +7 1/2
TROY ST. -16
WISCONSIN -6 1/2
THAT'S 29 PICKS IN TOTAL.
JMED2 in GA
ADD TONIGHT'S 8PM GAME, IT JUST WENT POSITIVE ON MY COMPUTER MODELS:
ReplyDeleteEAST CAROLINA -6
JMED in GA
I'm glad I found your site. I also have a statistical model that I have been playing. I will post my picks on Thursday to see how I compete with your picks. My picks are ATS(against the spread). My guess is that we will have very similar picks due to the statistical nature of our models.
ReplyDeleteJMED
ReplyDeleteyou got 30 games so far is that all you are going with this week or are you going to be posting more? I know the last few weeks you have had about 40 each week or do you just post what you think is gonna be good?
Thanks
Oh ya, I got more. Wait until Brian puts out his official list. Remember, we're all guests here. I'll add 6-9 more.
ReplyDeleteOne WIN so far, huh?
ECAR,,,Coach Skip "Lou" Holtz, huh?
ya BABY ya!!! LOL
JMED in GA