It's that time of year. I suppose some of you have been running mock drafts for weeks already, but for the rest of us it's just now time to start thinking about our 2010 fantasy roster. The first installment of the Koko rankings is for QBs.These projections are intended to establish the baseline minimum accuracy as the most reasonably naive predictions. The general explanation of the system along with details of the regression plots can be found in the 2010 QB post.
| Rank | Player | Yds/G | TD/G | Int/G | Sk/G | Fum/G | RYds/G | RTDs/G | Pts/G | Proj Pts |
| 1 | Drew Brees | 258 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 3 | 0.1 | 12.1 | 164.1 |
| 2 | Aaron Rodgers | 251 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 17 | 0.2 | 11.6 | 157.1 |
| 3 | Peyton Manning | 253 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1 | 0.1 | 11.3 | 154.0 |
| 4 | Brett Favre | 243 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 2 | 0.1 | 10.8 | 147.4 |
| 5 | Tom Brady | 249 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 3 | 0.1 | 10.8 | 146.5 |
| 6 | Matt Schaub | 261 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 4 | 0.1 | 10.7 | 145.9 |
| 7 | Philip Rivers | 245 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 4 | 0.1 | 10.6 | 143.6 |
| 8 | Tony Romo | 252 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 6 | 0.1 | 10.3 | 140.5 |
| 9 | Ben Roethlisberger | 256 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 6 | 0.1 | 10.1 | 103.6* |
| 10 | Donovan McNabb | 239 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 9 | 0.1 | 9.9 | 135.3 |
| 11 | Eli Manning | 238 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 4 | 0.1 | 9.8 | 132.7 |
| 12 | Jay Cutler | 227 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 10 | 0.1 | 9.5 | 129.0 |
| 13 | Matt Ryan | 216 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 4 | 0.1 | 9.5 | 129.0 |
| 14 | Alex Smith | 219 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 5 | 0.1 | 9.3 | 126.1 |
| 15 | Carson Palmer | 209 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 6 | 0.1 | 9.1 | 124.0 |
| 16 | Kyle Orton | 231 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 5 | 0.1 | 9.0 | 122.7 |
| 17 | Jason Campbell | 225 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 13 | 0.1 | 8.8 | 119.1 |
| 18 | Vince Young | 190 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 20 | 0.1 | 8.7 | 118.9 |
| 19 | David Garrard | 224 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 17 | 0.1 | 8.7 | 118.5 |
| 20 | Matthew Stafford | 225 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 10 | 0.1 | 8.7 | 118.2 |
| 21 | Joe Flacco | 225 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 4 | 0.1 | 8.6 | 117.3 |
| 22 | Matt Hasselbeck | 220 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 8 | 0.1 | 8.2 | 111.3 |
| 23 | Chad Henne | 215 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 3 | 0.1 | 7.6 | 103.7 |
| 24 | Matt Cassel | 209 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 11 | 0.1 | 7.6 | 103.7 |
| 25 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 183 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 12 | 0.1 | 7.5 | 102.2 |
| 26 | Josh Freeman | 205 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 14 | 0.1 | 7.5 | 101.9 |
| 27 | Mark Sanchez | 193 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 7 | 0.1 | 7.4 | 100.2 |
| 28 | Brady Quinn | 179 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 9 | 0.1 | 7.3 | 98.7 |
| 29 | Marc Bulger | 194 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 3 | 0.1 | 6.6 | 89.8 |
| 30 | Jake Delhomme | 204 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 6 | 0.1 | 6.6 | 89.4 |
Did you ever do a comparison between the projected stats versus the actual stats from last year based on the "Koko" methodology?
ReplyDeleteThe Broncos are going to dominate I see...
ReplyDelete16 Kyle Orton 231
28 Brady Quinn 179
410 Passing Yards Per Game...WOW :)
no kolb or leinart? Big ben a top 10, even missing 6 games? Quinn and orton dominating the league? This guy needs to update his roster...what a douche.
ReplyDeleteread the original post, turd
ReplyDeleteHow exactly do you expect him to regress players (Kolb and Leinart) who had effectively no playing time last year? Two games is not enough to create a baseline and regress.
ReplyDeleteIf you noticed for Roethlisberger, his ranking is based on a per game basis, which I'd argue is more useful than total stats.
As for Quinn and Orton, it depends on who starts, and now you have the rankings either way.