WR Expected Catch Rate

One of the neat features on the individual stat pages are some receiver stats you don't typically see. There's targets, target percentage, yards per target, catch rate, and deep percentage. Occasionally you'll find target stats on conventional stat sites, but I think target percentage is more interesting--the percentage of team targets each receiver gets.

The other day I was sorting the WR stats page by Catch Rate (CR), which is simply receptions per target. I wanted to see which guys had the better hands. To no surprise, catch rate is closely related to how often a receiver is thrown deep balls. Deep% is the proportion of targets thrown in the air deeper than 15 yds past the line of scrimmage. The relationship between CR and Deep% for receivers with at least 40 targets in 2009 is plotted below. The relationship in 2010 shows virtually the same pattern, but is slightly more scattered because of the smaller sample.

I thought it might be interesting to calculate the expected CR of each receiver based on his Deep%, then calculate the difference between his expected and actual CR. Graphically, the difference between expected and actual CR is the vertical distance between each receiver's data point and the trend line. This might give us an idea of who the receivers are who can reliably pull in the most passes. Obviously, there are more factors in play than just the receiver's performance, including the QB, offensive line, other team receivers, game situations and opponents, among other factors. But the correlation is considerable at 0.47, and at the very least, it's one piece of the puzzle.

For the 2010 season (through week 6), here are the leaders in Catch Rate Above Expected. There seems to be some sort of connection between having a hyphen in your surname and dropping passes.

Rank	Player	Team	%Deep	CR(%)	ExpCR	Difference
1	A.Collie	IND	24.1	81.5	59.8	21.7
2	K.Walter	HST	21.4	78.6	60.9	17.7
3	J.Maclin	PHI	41.7	69.4	53.2	16.2
4	J.Shipley	CIN	15.8	78.9	63.0	15.9
5	M.Thomas	JAX	29.3	70.7	57.9	12.8
6	J.Avant	PHI	16.7	75.0	62.7	12.3
7	R.Wayne	IND	30.8	69.2	57.3	11.9
8	M.Manningham	NYG	42.9	64.3	52.7	11.6
9	D.Driver	GB	23.1	71.8	60.2	11.6
10	R.Moss	MIN	62.5	56.3	45.3	11.1
11	R.Williams	DAL	32.3	67.7	56.7	11.0
12	M.Austin	DAL	21.7	71.7	60.8	10.9
13	S.Breaston	ARZ	25.0	70.0	59.5	10.5
14	D.Branch	NE	16.7	72.2	62.7	9.5
15	S.Moss	WAS	29.1	67.3	57.9	9.4
16	A.Boldin	BLT	29.2	66.7	57.9	8.8
17	M.Williams	TB	59.5	54.8	46.4	8.4
18	D.Bess	MIA	5.6	75.0	66.9	8.1
19	H.Ward	PIT	30.8	65.4	57.3	8.1
20	J.Gaffney	DEN	18.9	69.8	61.8	8.0
21	M.Floyd	SD	56.8	54.5	47.4	7.1
22	W.Welker	NE	6.7	73.3	66.5	6.8
23	R.Parrish	BUF	31.8	63.6	56.9	6.7
24	D.Bryant	DAL	28.6	64.3	58.1	6.2
25	S.Smith	NYG	31.5	63.0	57.0	6.0
26	E.Royal	DEN	17.0	68.1	62.5	5.6
27	M.Colston	NO	20.0	66.7	61.4	5.3
28	C.Stuckey	CLV	14.3	67.9	63.6	4.3
29	E.Bennett	CHI	8.7	69.6	65.7	3.9
30	H.Nicks	NYG	24.6	63.2	59.7	3.5
31	R.White	ATL	24.6	62.3	59.7	2.6
32	A.Johnson	HST	34.5	58.2	55.9	2.3
33	A.Randle El	PIT	33.3	58.3	56.3	2.0
34	J.Nelson	GB	23.8	61.9	60.0	1.9
35	J.Knox	CHI	47.1	52.9	51.1	1.8
36	K.Britt	TEN	29.6	59.3	57.8	1.5
37	L.Moore	NO	18.5	63.0	62.0	1.0
38	C.Johnson	DET	45.5	52.7	51.7	1.0
39	D.Mason	BLT	37.2	55.8	54.9	0.9
40	J.Jones	GB	37.0	55.6	54.9	0.7
41	D.Nelson	BUF	18.8	62.5	61.9	0.6
42	B.Marshall	MIA	28.6	58.7	58.1	0.6
43	J.Jones	HST	7.4	66.7	66.2	0.5
44	D.Butler	SEA	25.0	60.0	59.5	0.5
45	N.Washington	TEN	50.0	50.0	50.0	0.0
46	B.Edwards	NYJ	34.2	55.3	56.0	-0.7
47	D.Henderson	NO	24.1	58.6	59.8	-1.2
48	L.Evans	BUF	41.4	51.7	53.3	-1.6
49	M.Williams	SEA	14.7	61.8	63.4	-1.6
50	D.Amendola	SL	3.6	65.5	67.6	-2.1
51	B.Lloyd	DEN	35.9	53.1	55.4	-2.3
52	G.Jennings	GB	36.8	52.6	55.0	-2.4
53	M.Wallace	PIT	48.0	48.0	50.8	-2.8
54	D.Bowe	KC	50.0	46.9	50.0	-3.1
55	D.Jackson	PHI	35.1	51.4	55.7	-4.3
56	C.Ochocinco	CIN	17.8	57.8	62.2	-4.4
57	B.Hartline	MIA	41.9	48.4	53.1	-4.7
58	D.Hester	CHI	32.0	52.0	56.8	-4.8
59	P.Harvin	MIN	22.2	55.6	60.6	-5.0
60	L.Murphy	OAK	38.5	48.7	54.4	-5.7
61	J.Cribbs	CLV	28.0	52.0	58.4	-6.4
62	C.Davis	SD	27.6	51.7	58.5	-6.8
63	M.Clayton	SL	19.0	54.8	61.8	-7.0
64	J.Morgan	SF	23.5	52.9	60.1	-7.2
65	J.Cotchery	NYJ	23.7	52.6	60.0	-7.4
66	T.Owens	CIN	25.0	51.7	59.5	-7.8
67	L.Fitzgerald	ARZ	33.3	48.1	56.3	-8.2
68	S.Smith	CAR	20.0	52.0	61.4	-9.4
69	M.Crabtree	SF	15.6	53.3	63.1	-9.8
70	St.Johnson	BUF	9.7	54.8	65.3	-10.5
71	M.Sims-Walker	JAX	22.2	50.0	60.6	-10.6
72	H.Douglas	ATL	28.1	46.9	58.3	-11.4
73	S.Stroughter	TB	16.7	50.0	62.7	-12.7
74	D.Gettis	CAR	22.7	45.5	60.4	-14.9
75	D.Heyward-Bey	OAK	40.5	37.8	53.6	-15.8