Game probabilities for week 10 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.This week the lead-in summarized my recent post on the dangers of misplaced confidence in analytic models of open, real-world systems.
Game probabilities for week 10 are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.
Should I assume the probabilities listed this week are for the home teams?
ReplyDeleteIt's in a different format than before. Looking over the numbers, it appears as though the probability is for the home team (the second team listed).
ReplyDeleteWhen Nate Silver makes an estimate of a probability, his favored pick (even if it is only 50.3%) always wins, he is 99 out of 100.
ReplyDeleteBrian, i'd make a lot of money if your probabilities also behaved like that.
:)
fyi, the chances that every one of the "favorites" win all 14 games is 0.12%
ReplyDelete