Jan 17, 2013

Conference Championship Game Probabilities



Game probabilities for the conference champtionship games are up at the New York Times' Fifth Down.

This week I estimate the value of Colin Kaepernick over Alex Smith in terms of their effect on the probability of winning.

3 comments:

  1. AnonymousThursday, January 17, 2013

    Brian How much of Atlanta's rating is because of their ridiculously low Penalties total?Where would they rank with average Penalties?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Brian BurkeFriday, January 18, 2013

    If they had an average penalty rate (about .41 yds per play), it would drop them 5% points. In other words they'd be at a .60/.40 disadvantage vs SF rather than the .55/.45 they are now.

    This is probably worth a full post.

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousFriday, January 18, 2013

    Thanks Brian.

    ReplyDelete

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