tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post1104993750531970849..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): First Falcons Drive & Botched Bears Field GoalUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-27524720975679977972012-10-29T15:28:06.714-04:002012-10-29T15:28:06.714-04:00David - Keith's correct, but I think he only a...David - Keith's correct, but I think he only addressed half the issue. On one hand, if you are up 7-0, there is already a reasonable chance that you're the better team (as he stated above). But ALSO, even if we assume that you are NOT the better team, that still means that the better team now has to overcome your 7-0 advantage. <br /><br />Along those same lines, there is usually a fairly strong likelihood of winning if you are up by ANY margin at ANY point in the game. bytebodgerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15989876051555196561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-62882926707295451762012-10-29T11:46:17.195-04:002012-10-29T11:46:17.195-04:00David - No, those are the only variables included....David - No, those are the only variables included. But think about it: In general, teams that go up 7-0 will be the better team. Obviously not all the team, but there will be a small sample bias toward it which explains the 72% win probability. It's similar to all those skewed stats you see where a soccer team in 10-1 when scoring first, because there is a sample bias for teams up 1-0.<br /><br />And yeah, Chris, I thought (hoped) Lovie would change his mind too.Keith Goldnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16510947295485321744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-15493193893795248532012-10-29T11:31:48.154-04:002012-10-29T11:31:48.154-04:00Ron Rivera (foolishly, I thought) called a timeout...Ron Rivera (foolishly, I thought) called a timeout before Gould's kick and I thought Lovie would see the light of this situation and put Cutler and the offense back on the field. Luckily he didn't, and it stayed at a touchdown-touchdown game instead of a touchdown-field goal game. At this point I felt comfortable with a W on the way and the second win of the year (and some momentum). Then the Panthers turned into the PanthersChrisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-2140806676536775112012-10-29T10:18:53.287-04:002012-10-29T10:18:53.287-04:00Thank you for breaking down the Bears FG decision....Thank you for breaking down the Bears FG decision. I was watching this game, highly suspicious that Lovie was making the wrong call, and then I hoped that you'd break it down.Tomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-34998106844242392672012-10-29T09:54:33.876-04:002012-10-29T09:54:33.876-04:00Does WP account for anything other than possession...Does WP account for anything other than possession, down, yards remaining, time remaining, timeouts, and score? I find it very unlikely that the Falcons kicking off with 6:16 in the first quarter up "only" 7-0 had a 72% win probability unless something else was involved. David Kravitzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04327956475721102278noreply@blogger.com