tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post1336867394420002352..comments2023-11-05T04:16:44.937-05:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): WP ForfeitedUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-16115629121823452732012-02-05T14:44:02.507-05:002012-02-05T14:44:02.507-05:00Here's the 5th down writeup, looks like Brian ...Here's the 5th down writeup, looks like Brian forgot to post the link this week.<br /><br />http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/02/super-bowl-probability-giants-just-barely/Boston Chrisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-12229678870412036372012-02-05T13:55:01.819-05:002012-02-05T13:55:01.819-05:00Superbowl analysis is where?Superbowl analysis is where?Tomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-36699995469373776522012-02-05T13:33:03.405-05:002012-02-05T13:33:03.405-05:00Did you look at teams going for it when they ought...Did you look at teams going for it when they ought to kick, or does that literally never happen?Stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06090531523789747157noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-39262299462733030702012-02-05T13:17:22.606-05:002012-02-05T13:17:22.606-05:00Are you going to post the win probabilities for th...Are you going to post the win probabilities for the Super Bowl?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-37534087579836439652012-02-05T07:00:48.548-05:002012-02-05T07:00:48.548-05:00Brian, I know you've posted before about how a...Brian, I know you've posted before about how a team's strength or weakness on offense and defense can affect their willingness to go-for-it versus likelihood of punting. Have you ever formally cross-referenced those items? In other words, for example, measure somehow each team's strength of offense (perhaps average yards gained in short-yardage situations), and compare those numbers against each team's willingness to go for it in short yardage situations. I'd imagine that teams with strong short-yardage offenses are more likely to go for it than are teams with weak offenses. I suppose you also could measure the defense's strength in short-yardage situations too, but since the offense is deciding, I'd imagine its own strength carries more weight in the decision process. <br /><br />Just a thought. Probably something you've done somewhere previously.Labnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-46480238959750738922012-02-05T01:56:41.367-05:002012-02-05T01:56:41.367-05:00If I recall, Armstrong suggested the infamous 4th-...If I recall, Armstrong suggested the infamous 4th-and-2 call by Belichick against Indianapolis in 2009 might have led to the less-aggressive ripple we've seen the last two years. <br /><br />Unsure if I agree, considering your chart here shows respectable variation annually, but it is worth noting that on the whole the forfeited WP had been trending downward through 2009, after which it has strongly increased. Will be interesting to follow up the next few years. Perhaps there exists some natural range of WP forfeited that we won't see broken by the league wide grouping of coaches' tendencies.Jonpaul W.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-11913618001386461182012-02-05T00:30:02.408-05:002012-02-05T00:30:02.408-05:00most bad coaching decisions, especially 4th down d...most bad coaching decisions, especially 4th down decisions late in game come down to the simple fact that coaches want to feel like they are still "in the game" -coaches will do anything to continue to feel like they have a chance to win even if it clearly reduces probability of victorybmcosashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08617215838988432891noreply@blogger.com